The most bearish "weather" thing for corn at the moment is that some of the models have backed the most intense heat farther west..............the European model in a big way is very bearish.......but the last GFS operational model was bullish.

However, the southwest Cornbelt is going to have some high heat with this pattern and it looks like most of the belt if going to keep getting drier as the month goes on.

Is this bullish enough for us to go higher?

Soils are very wet in many places and corn will have plenty of moisture for pollination and early filling............as long as intense heat does not last more than a few days and is not belt wide. 

Corn and heat fill:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/5754/

Crop condition/ratings from last Monday Afternoon:

Nothing noteworthy regarding changes but it's a huge deal that they are this high at this time of year.

Corn -1% to 77% gd/ex

beans unch at 73% gd/ex

Spring Wheat 77% gd/ex  -1% from last week.

Oats 72% +2%

Cotton 42% gd/ex  +4%    Cotton 19% P/VP -7% from last week, WOW!

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2618.txt

USDA acreage and stocks  from Friday:  

                      USDA 6/29       Estimate          USDA 3/30

Corn acres    89.128              88.372            88.026

Bean acres       89.557              89.789           88.982

all Wheat         47.821              47.122           47.339

Winter wheat   32.732              32.718           32.708

Spring wheat    13.202              12.413           12.627

Durum wheat    1.887                 2.017             2.004

Seemed bearish corn to me(higher acres than trade expected) but corn finished +5c. 

Bean acres seemed slightly bullish to me(lower acres than trade expectations) but beans finished on the lows

You will find the comprehensive weather  outlook right here:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6696/

The extended maps(6-10 day/8-14 day) from yesterday are  hot. Why isn't this more bullish (especially corn)?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

One reason is that models are LESS hot than they were last week. 

The last solution of the European model is BEARISH and much cooler after day 11. The map below is for July 14th. 

                By pll - July 1, 2018, 9:54 p.m.            

            Nice .9 of rain here will take us through pollination easily even with heat. ECILL

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 By cliff-e - July 1, 2018, 9:17 p.m.            

Rode thru a good chunk of central Mn. today and saw a lot of standing water and severely stunted corn and soybean fields with huge areas of completely drowned out crops. The number 4 corn producing state of Mn. will definitely not be that this year.

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   By wglassfo - July 1, 2018, 10:52 p.m.            

With all the rain

I suspect the market will want to see proof of damage before going higher

Sitting in Chicago or some place you have to think lots of rain will last for some time before real damage occurs

We have seen drought produce higher than expected yields

However the recent storms with green snap and hail don't seem to done much to price

Perhaps not enough in the big picture

We always have a problem some place

Drought, heat, hail, green snap, pp etc happens every yr.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Export inspections:

Pretty good for corn, better than expected for beans? Not so good for wheat.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

"Nobody thought that we could fall so far, this fast. " -metmike

Yeah. A few of us did...

http://agfax.com/2018/03/27/trump-tariffs-farmers-have-most-to-lose-say-u-s-farm-groups-dtn/

us? really us cliff? would you please point out these post where you predicted near perfect weather over large portions of the US which is far more likely reason of where grain prices are than anything Trump did od did not do

I have seen cash corn go down faster than I thought

As of the last few yrs post ethanol boom it seems a person has a very short time frame to price corn at very good prices

If I remember, this yr our cash price had maybe 10 days of highs for the yr so far

You have to be ready and willing to pull the trigger when price is profitable

So far have been lucky on prices

This yr I priced almost 150 bu corn/acre in one sale for June July and Aug 2019 delivery

Hit the top within 20 cents

Not bragging as I have waited too long and sold on the back side of a down market

Still worked better than waiting as price fell another 40 cents

Our basis jumps around like a yo-yo with 30 cent variation as normal

Also sold all remaining 2017 corn that was in the bin the very same day

I am sold out until the combine tells me my final production number

My biggest concern is a wide spread hail storm over most of my acres

If that happens I will be in the market to buy cash corn to make good on deliveries

We are lucky

We get small amounts of hail about 1 in 20 yrs

The Great lakes seem to make 150 bu duable even in a drought yr

Most yrs we try to push 200 bu./acre but no guarantee

I have never produced 200 bu average on all planted acres

We don't zero out in this location unless hail reduces yield

Even hail will reduce yield by only 50% max in my career

I have never had all acres hailed out 

I don't have crop insurance

I take thee grossly high premium and put it to work paying down debt

All land is paid and I have reserves to pay cash for more than 1 yr of inputs including capital expenses

You need a plan and be willing to pull the trigger for good or bad

I have always respected the integrity of your farm business principles and policies Wayne.

You will always come back to farm another day... very sound indeed...

USDA crop rating/condition report:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2718.txt

Corn 76% gd/ex vs 77% last week......68% last year.

Beans 71% gd/ex vs 73% last week...64% last year.

Spring Wheat 77% gd/ex same as last week....37% last year!

Cotton vp increased 5% after the p/vp decreased by that much the previous week.