KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -17.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +8.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +9.4%)
9:00 AM ET. January U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +9.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +10.7%; previous +10.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +10.4%)
10:00 AM ET. March-February-rally Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 97.0; previous 91.3)
Expectation Idx (previous 90.8)
Present Situation Idx (previous 92)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 747)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 301.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3325.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)
8:15 AM ET. March ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +560K; previous +117000)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
9:00 AM ET. G24 Deputies Meeting (virtual)
9:45 AM ET. March Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 60.0; previous 59.5)
10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 122.8)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -3.0%; previous -2.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +13.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 502.711M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.912M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.279M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.204M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.553M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.806M)
Refinery Usage (previous 81.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.702M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.231M)
3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -1.4%)
Thursday, April 1, 2021
7:30 AM ET. March Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -57%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 670K; previous 684K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -97K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3870000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -264K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 4626.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 166.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 414.1K)
9:00 AM ET. IMF Fiscal Monitor analytical chapter launch (virtual)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 59.2; previous 58.6)
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (expected 61.6; previous 60.8)
Prices Idx (previous 86.0)
Employment Idx (previous 54.4)
Inventories (previous 49.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 64.8)
Production Idx (previous 63.2)
10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected -1.1%; previous +1.7%)
Residential Construction
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1746B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -36B)
11:00 AM ET. March Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.9)
4:00 PM ET. March Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 2, 2021
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +630K; previous +379K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 6.0%; previous 6.2%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.01)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.23%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.6%; previous +5.26%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.3)
Government Payrolls (previous -86K)
Private Payroll (previous +465K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
N/A U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday
N/A Marianas: Good Friday
Monday, April 5, 2021
9:00 AM ET. G24 Ministers and Governors Meeting (virtual)
9:45 AM ET. March ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 35.5)
9:45 AM ET. March US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 59.8)
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 55.3)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 55.5)
Prices Idx (previous 71.8)
Employment Idx (previous 52.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 51.9)
10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 101.01)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12,681.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3867.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 18th high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3867.44. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 157-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 157-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-06. First support is March's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.
June T-notes were sharply lower overnight as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 132.095 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 132.095. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is the overnight low crossing at 130.260. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.71. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.
May heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.43. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $201.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $187.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $201.37. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $187.93. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06.
May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.644 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.644. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.747. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extended the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $93.22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.06.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at $116.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.16. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85. Second support is the November's low crossing at $116.93.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3861 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0772 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0772. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1027. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0631. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.09. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extended this year's decline to a new low for the year. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0920 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0941. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0907. Second support is the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $1676.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1780.40. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.
May silver was lower overnight as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.376 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.376. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the overnight low crossing at $24.285. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.
May copper was lower in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9113 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9113. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends a two-month old trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.43 1/4 would open the door for a test of the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is March's low crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.
May wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.36 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.36 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.48 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $6.07 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.77 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.97. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.58 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.06 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.91 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off last-April's low, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.91 1/2. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks above the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $406.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $406.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $419.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends last-week's sharp decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 48.76 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 58.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 48.76.
Thanks tallpine!
Good weather for early planting and NOT making the drought worse:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66372/
NG weather is bearish but fundamentals lean bullish
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66971/
HUGE USDA report out on Wednesday with HUGE acres
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67276/
Exports
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67272/