|Dallas Fed Mfg M/M||Mar-21||17.20||28.90||B-|
|Chicago PMI M/M||Mar-21||59.50||66.30||C+|
|PMI Mfg M/M||Mar-21||58.60||59.10||C+|
|ISM Mfg M/M||Mar-21||60.80||64.70||B-|
|Case/Shiller HPI M/M||Jan-21||1.30||1.20||C+|
|FHFA HPI M/M||Jan-21||1.10||1.00||C+|
|Pending Home Sales M/M||Feb-21||-2.80||-10.60||D+|
|Construction Spending M/M||Feb-21||1.70||-0.80||C-|
|State Street Investors Confidence||Mar-21||91.90||93.90||C+|
|Consumer Confidence M/M||Mar-21||91.30||109.70||B-|
|Jobless Claims W/W||3/27/2021||684K||719K||C-|
|Employment Situation M/M||Mar-21||379K||916K||B|
A pretty good week.
Housing continues contraction. Pending Home Sales took one of the biggest drops in memory. Construction Spending is off. But prices continue to spiral upward, YoY showing at or near +12%. Inventories are down, material costs and interest up. But hard to be bearish in such a market. Something has to change.
Jobless claims came back over 700K, but below the level we've been seeing since the pandemic.
State Street Investors gained some confidence and Consumers are positively giddy. Stimulus, I would guess.
RedBook remains at historic highs, again, stimulus is certainly a factor.
MFG remains a hot spot with all metrics on the positive side and ISM coming in at a multi-decade high. I have not been watching it long enough to recall numbers like these. Bear in mind, anything over 55 is considered strong.
The headline this week, of course, is the Employment Situation coming in at an astounding +916K. Equity futures appear cheered and as it's one of 12 times in history the report has been issued on a hoilday, we'll have to guess at residual effects for next week. Nothing bad in this report. Of note, we added 53K Mfg jobs. Not a surprise when you look at MFG Metrics.
I'll go with a B- this week, largely on the strength of Employment and lower the suck factor to a pandemic low 6.
Great report again Tim!
"Housing continues contraction. Pending Home Sales took one of the biggest drops in memory. Construction Spending is off. But prices continue to spiral upward, YoY showing at or near +12%. Inventories are down, material costs and interest up. But hard to be bearish in such a market. Something has to change."
This is very odd. Which one is the better indicator?
It's a classic supply/demand scenario.
People are buying houses as fast as they can, and builders are not keeping up, nor are people selling enough of their homes. Buiding supply costs are through the roof, discouraging somewhat, more construction.
(I'd really like feedback from Cutworm on this).
We'll be selling next year, but I am really tempted to put the house on the market now. It doesn't get to be more of a sellers market than this. I bet that won't be the case in a year. Will it still be great? I hope so.
If we keep adding employment, that will keep demand going.
But, you know markets as well as anyone. The best cure for high prices is high prices.