Can anybody help undesrtand what to believe
I read two different stories about world oil reserves
One side says that when OPEC runs dry of oil, the world will face a severe oil shortage
The other side says that new undeveloped oil reserves are waiting to replace current oil supplies
I am told we have a 100 yr plus supply of Nat gas and 1000 yrs of coal, all in our back door plus oil reserves
What does the rest of the world have vs useage
Then of course new technologies for green power [Solar, wind, sea water tides etc. will could replace or supplement fossil fuel in time
Even with out use of nuclear power plants, which may be deemed "not in my back yard" after several nuclear power plant failures
Seems some think we will return to medevial times when fossil fuel runs out
I know fossil fuel is a limited resource but golly we already have so many alternatives that cost determines which source of power we use
Seems to me the doom and gloom people have only three uneven legs on their soap
What say you
Is Richard correct with his oil price thinking??
Are we well supplied with different sources of energy for all future time
We might pay more for future energy or we might pay less depending on technology
My thinking is if fossil fuel gets too expensive some body will have a cheaper energy source
Capitalism at its best will keep us well supplied with energy needs
I moved this post to the trading forum for you. This is an excellent topic to discuss.......thanks.
World Petroleum Supply above-data from BP and EIA
"Unfortunately, very few people realize that the entire concerns about peak oil were based on misinformation or junk science. Specifically, the research was not scientific at all but statistical analysis so badly done that it wouldn’t pass a first-year college course. The work by Campbell and Laherrere relied on the basic idea that geology determined production trends, and thus trends could be safely extrapolated based on the bell curve model. If production was declining, that is. Economics didn’t matter because ‘you have to find oil before you can produce it’ and if it’s there, it will be produced. Technology could not improve recovery because “Technology cannot change the geology of the reservoir, but technology (in particular horizontal drilling) can help to produce faster"
Abiotic OilThe abiotic oil formation theory suggests that crude oil is the result of naturally occurring and possibly ongoing geological processes. This theory was developed in the Soviet Union during the Cold War, as the Union needed to be self sufficient in terms of producing its own energy. The science behind the theory is sound and is based on experimental evidence in both the laboratory and in the field. This theory has helped to identify and therefore develop large numbers of gas and oil deposits. Examples of such fields are the South Khylchuyu field and the controversial Sakhalin II field.
In its simplest form, the theory is that carbon present in the magma beneath the crust reacts with hydrogen to form methane as well as a raft of other mainly alkane hydrocarbons. The reactions are more complicated than this, with several intermediate stages. Particular mineral rocks such as granite and other silicon based rocks act as catalysts, which speed up the reaction without actually becoming involved or consumed in the process.
Experiments have shown that under extreme conditions of heat and pressure it is possible to convert iron oxide, calcium carbonate and water into methane, with hydrocarbons containing up to 10 carbon atoms being produced by Russian scientists last century and confirmed in recent US experiments. The absence of large quantities of free gaseous oxygen in the magma prevents the hydrocarbons from burning and therefore forming the lower energy state molecule carbon dioxide. The conditions present in the Earth’s mantle would easily be sufficient for these small hydrocarbon chains to polymerise into the longer chain molecules found in crude oil.
I may have some of my post incorrect
I just posted from memory so take it with a grain of salt and please correct the parts you think I am wrong
The theory of abiotic oil(oil formed deep in the earth-not from decomposed plants/animals) is very contraversial and not accepted as realistic by most in geology or the fields related to oil exploration.
I'm no geologist but as more and more oil continues to be discovered, it seems to be exceeding the amount that could have been produced by decomposed plants/animals.
We know that there is oil/methane on other planets that never had life and theoretically, the pressures, temperatures and materials deep inside the earth, could be capable of producing oil and we know for sure methane/natural gas.
I believe in peak oil and I also believe that the US $$ is going to crash because of structural problems with our budget and trade deficits. I am watching . A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash . on netflix right now. it is a 2006 movie when oil was going higher, but still worth watching. Oil is headed lower for now but it will wake up again in a few months. We are headed much higher into 2026, but even 2026 will not be the final peak.
They have been talking about running out of oil for decades. The North Sea was suppose to have run dry long ago. Then horizontal drilling was figured out. Now fracking has unleached new reserves. Technology continues to improve recovery rates of existing oil fields. Add in the incremental gains from wind and solar, we are a long way from the dire oil crunch that has been predicted for at least the last twenty years. Add in the new oil fields discovered recently in one of the Emirates, the oil basin discovered near Israel, I don't see the world running dry for the foreseeable future. All part of the sky is falling fear mongering to keep the war machine going.
I remember buying gasoline for $0.95 gallon at the end of 1986. We are now at $2.75. If they have been saying that the world would run out of oil for decades and they have been wrong, then why did the price go up? The price has little to do with reserves. It has more to do with flow rate. How fast can they pump the oil out of the ground? If the world population grows and each person consumes more oil and the entire world uses 10 million barrels a day more in the future can the world pump oil out at that rate to cover it? And if they can, then why is the price now higher then 1986 at $11/barrel?
Everything has gone up in price, Richard, since the mid 80's. Yes, the dollar continue to devalue. The last time we hit $145./barrel, gas prices hit $4.50/gal. New York state tax revenues dropped 30%. The same drop, or worse, lies ahead. We will grind to a halt and demand will plummet
Do you see things differently. Will we be able to grow at 5,7,9 dollar/ gal. gas price. Not even grow, but function as a nation?