KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, April 20, 2021  

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.0M)

Wednesday, April 21, 2021  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 667.7)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 279.5)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.4%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2916.7)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 492.423M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.89M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.897M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.309M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 143.464M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.083M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 85.0%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.328M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.092M)

Thursday, April 22, 2021

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 380.3K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 356K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 217.8K)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 608K; previous 576K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -193K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3731000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)

8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous -1.09)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.02)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (expected 6.03M; previous 6.22M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -3.1%; previous -6.6%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.0)

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 313000)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.8%)

10:00 AM ET. March Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.2%)

                       Leading Index (previous 110.5)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1845B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +61B)

11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 23)

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 45)

                       Mfg Composite Idx (expected 27; previous 26)

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 35)

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, April 23, 2021  

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI

                       PMI, Services (expected 61.0; previous 60.0)

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 60.5; previous 59.0)

10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales

                       New Home Sales (expected 893K; previous 775K)

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +15.2%; previous -18.2%)

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.8)

Monday, April 26, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. March Advance Report on Durable Goods

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.1%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -1.0%)

10:30 AM ET. April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 28.9)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 48.0)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,474.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 14,059.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,856.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,474.06.  

The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4047.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4183.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4128.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4047.30.  

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-02. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-15. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.

June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.246 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.206 would open the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.206. Second resistance is the March high crossing at 133.230. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.246. Second support is the April 5^th low crossing at 130.255. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at $67.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $60.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $64.38. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $60.76. Second support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $57.29. Third support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.43.      

June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-week's rally, March's high crossing at $197.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $191.74. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $197.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.38. Second support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $173.44.

June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-week's rally, March's high crossing at $2.1280 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9574 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.0742. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2.1280. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9574. Second support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $1.8618.

June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2.869 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.671 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.830. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2.869. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.671. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.540.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower in last-overnight trading as it extends the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the March low crossing at $90.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.56. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.76. First support is March's low crossing at $90.62. Second support is February's low crossing at $89.66.

The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $121.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $121.40. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $122.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.90. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.69.

The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 12^th high crossing at 1.4009 would open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at 1.4245. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3795 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 12^th high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3795. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672.

The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower and working on a possible inside day overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0773 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0868. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0773.

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $80.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26^th low crossing at $78.42. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $80.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11. Second support is the February 26^th low crossing at $78.42.  

The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0902. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the February 23^rd high crossing at $1817.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $1783.40. Second resistance is the February 23^rd high crossing at $1817.60. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20. Second support is March's low crossing at $1676.20.

May silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.144 would open the door for a possible test of the March 18^th high crossing at $26.740. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.243 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.144. Second resistance is the March 18^th high crossing at $26.740. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $24.680. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.740. 

May copper was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends this month's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0537 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.2965. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0537. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

May corn was higher overnight and poised to resume the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020 decline crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.54 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020 decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.82 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.67 1/4.       

May wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at $6.68 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $6.68 3/4. Second resistance is the February high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.40 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2. 

May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March high crossing at $6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.80 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.18 1/2. Second resistance is the March high crossing at $6.39 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.80 3/4.

May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $6.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.70 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.83 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.33. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

May soybeans were higher overnight and has renewed the rally off last-April's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's rally above March's high crossing at $14.60, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $14.74 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.07 1/4. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $13.78.  

May soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Multiple closes below the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 1^st high crossing at $433.20. Second resistance is the February 9^th high crossing at $442.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      

May soybean oil was sharply higher overnight and is challenging March's high crossing at 58.25. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 58.25 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 59.60. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 59.60. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 50.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.91.       

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

June hogs closed up $2.63 at $104.33. 

June hogs closed sharply higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.10 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.04 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $110.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.04. Second support is the March 22^nd low crossing at $97.62. 

June cattle closed down $0.58 at $118.60. 

June cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at $116.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.48. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $125.63. First support is today's low crossing at $117.55. Second support is March's low crossing at $116.42. 

May Feeder cattle closed down $1.25 at $142.48. 

May Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $136.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $146.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.52. First support is today's low crossing at $140.27. Second support is January's low crossing at $136.90.            

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the March 17^th high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target.          

May cocoa closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.75 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.             

May sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 17.52. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.       

May cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.52 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.