KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 380.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 356K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 217.8K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 608K; previous 576K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -193K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3731000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -1.09)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.02)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.03M; previous 6.22M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -3.1%; previous -6.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 313000)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.8%)
10:00 AM ET. March Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.2%)
Leading Index (previous 110.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1845B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +61B)
11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 23)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 45)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected 27; previous 26)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 35)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 23, 2021
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 61.0; previous 60.0)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 60.5; previous 59.0)
10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 893K; previous 775K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +15.2%; previous -18.2%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.8)
Monday, April 26, 2021
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
10:30 AM ET. April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 28.9)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 48.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Wednesday ending a two-day correction off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,477.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off January's lowinto uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 34,256.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,477.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32,519.69.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Wednesday ending a two-day correction off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,513.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 14,059.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,513.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,281.48.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday following a two-day sell off from last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4059.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4179.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4059.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3955.02.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
June T-bonds closed up 6/32's at 158-11.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 159-01. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-19. Second support is the March 18th low crossing at 153-07.
June T-notes closed up 10-pts. At 132.190.
June T-notes closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.259 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.188. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 131.120. Second support is April's low crossing at 130.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down signaling a possible top to the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $61.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $67.99. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $64.38. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $61.23. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. Third support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rallycrossing at $55.69.
June heating oil closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this month's rally, March's high crossing at $197.78 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $191.74. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $197.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.78. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $173.44.
June unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $196.06 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $212.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $207.42. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $212.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $196.06. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $186.18.
June Henry natural gas closed lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2.869. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.830. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.916. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.445.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing 91.57 leaving the door open for a possible test of March's low crossing at 90.62. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing 90.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.24. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 90.84. Second support is March's low crossing 90.62.
The June Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.88. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the March high crossing at 121.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 120.94. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 121.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.97.
The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3801 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4012. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3801. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3672.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0898. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0782 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0882. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0782.
The June Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Wednesday thereby opening the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 80.88. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 80.88 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high the February 26th low crossing at 78.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 80.88. First support is today's low crossing at 79.02. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at 78.42.
The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.920. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
June gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off the late-March low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the March 31st low, the February 23rd high crossing at $1817.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1743.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1798.40. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $1817.60. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20. Second support is March's low crossing at $1676.20.
May silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 26.902 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.311 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 26.902. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 27.649. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.680. Second support is March's low crossing at 23.740.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 437.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 406.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 429.65. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 437.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 406.53. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 381.34.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed up $0.14 1/2-cents at $6.06 1/2.
July corn closed higher on Wednesday and above psychological resistance crossing at $6.00 as it extends the rally off March's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.09 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.75 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 1/2.
July wheat closed up $0.13 3/4-cents at $6.75.
July wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, long-term resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.80. Second resistance is long-term resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.48 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09 3/4-cents at $6.37 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $6.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.90 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.43 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.11 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.08 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09 1/4-cents at $6.85 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If July extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at $7.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.89 3/4. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $7.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.65 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed up $0.21 3/4-cents at $14.79 1/2.
July soybeans posted a new contract high on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $14.81 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.09 1/4.
July soybean meal closed up $1.40 to $416.10.
July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally above the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at $433.60 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $393.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $433.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $437.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $393.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $373.40.
July soybean oil closed up 180-pts. at 56.94.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 57.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 50.39.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.83 at $104.53.
June hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $110.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.67. Second support is the March 22nd low crossing at $97.62.
June cattle closed down $1.95 at $117.25.
June cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it resumed the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $114.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.61. First support is today's low crossing at $116.92. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $114.37.
May Feeder cattle closed down $3.18 at $139.60.
May Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $136.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $145.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.12. First support is today's low crossing at $138.72. Second support is January's low crossing at $136.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the March 16thhigh crossing at 13.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's crossing at 25.03 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 25.03 are needed to renew the rally off April's low.
July sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed higher on Wednesday The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.53 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Thanks tallpine!
Weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68198/
crop conditions....updated Monday for USDA now!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68191/
exports and more:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68186/
Funds:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68194/
Natural gas: