Back on Friday:

@kannbwx

USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2021/22: 336,000 tonnes of #corn to unknown 

136,680 tonnes of corn to #Guatemala32,000 tonnes of #soybeans to China

replying to 

@kannbwx

Interesting that money managers' soy views have been losing ground versus corn for nearly a year, but last week that had its biggest reversal since then. 

And that is despite CBOT #corn futures making huge gains this month relative to #soybeans.

Replying to 

@kannbwx

Meanwhile, funds had their biggest buying week in CBOT #soybeans in nearly 8 months, bringing their net long to 173k fut+opt contracts as of April 20, the largest since the start of 2021. July futures rallied 5% during the week.

@kannbwx

Money managers SOLD CBOT #corn futures & options in the week ended April 20 despite a 5% rally in futures. 

Their net long was still strong at 384k and big buying was expected Wed and Thur. Commercial end users were the largest corn buyers last week.

export sales:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

@kannbwx

#China bought an old-crop cargo of #soybeans and 3 new-crop, bringing new-crop CN sales past 3 mmt.

 A combined 1 mmt of #corn was sold last week, #Mexico was strong in old crop. Corn exports were shown to top 1.9 mmt last week with 562kt to China.

@kannbwx

Sales of U.S. #soybeans for export in 2021/22 are progressing nicely and at an above-average pace. 

As of April 22, sales totaled 6.63 mln tonnes, far above last year's 1.05 mmt by the same date. #China (3.06 mmt) and unknown (2.37 mmt) occupy 82% of all new-crop bookings.

@kannbwx

If bigger volumes aren't seen soon, the market will start to get anxious over whether China plans to take all this corn in 20/21, push some to 21/22, or cancel orders. Rolling to 21/22 will reduce the 20/21 exports from expectations and instill doubts about 21/22 intentions.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

About 18 weeks left and 12.5 mmt of #corn left to ship to #China, exports would need to average around 672kt per week from now through August. That is significantly above the recent pace just over half a million tonnes. This is logistically doable, it just needs to happen.

Here's what weekly U.S. #corn exports to #China have looked like ever since China started buying massive amounts of the grain last year. At least 10.7 million tonnes were shipped Sept. 1-April 22, but that leaves 12.5 mmt to ship in the next 18ish weeks. Weekly volumes must rise.

Replying to 

@kannbwx

Export inspections data for the week ended April 22 showed U.S. #corn exports to #China at 633kt versus export sales showing 562kt. Both datasets in the previous week implied shipments around 560kt.