Reviewing March Oil Post
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Started by stomper - April 29, 2021, 1:40 a.m.

Bean oil has moved from 58 to over 70 in the span of one month. $7200 +/- . Didn’t catch much of that ‘cause I prematurely shifted to July. The spread moved from 170 to over 800. Didn’t catch that either. Who’d a thunk it? What a ride, tho. Now, will the July emulate the May move? 60 to 70? As Sherlock was want to say- “Game on!”
Escaping some attention, as Jim pointed out, is the usage of bean oil in biodiesel. I’ve long held that the crazies are effing with our foodstocks with this alternative fuel nonsense. Oh well...

Post market analysis, this week wheat has had a 38% and a 50% retracement EXACTLY both corn and wheat. I didn’t run the numbers for beans cause I don’t trade ‘em. Oh- bean oil did a 38 and a 62% too. Two days for each. Markets go up on an escalator and down on an elevator.

I exited my hoggies just under limit bid today (109.55) and had a re-buy order at 108.10. The sell down reached 108.15 and never got down the last 2 ticks. I woulda sold those at the close because of the price proximity to the upper Bollinger Band and the possible reaction downwards, especially in view of bcb’s 110 projection.

Trade on!

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 2:31 a.m.
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Thanks for sharing stomper!

The MWE whewt seems to be the best weather market right now with the drought in major producer North Dakota 

Looks like maybe some nice rains in week 2. It’s been tough to know which way it will go on any one time frame but if rains do come in early May, that may cause a big sell off.’

Lack of rains thru 3aly May and we can hit new highs.

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 8:49 a.m.
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The front months for grains right now are completely dominated by the parabolic type move from us running out of old crop and the need to ration supplies with price.

The point when we have done enough Of that is impossible to say with funds also controlling daily price movements that have become noted by the increase in the daily limits to prevent the markets from getting locked up when the moves exceed the daily limits.

By stomper - April 29, 2021, 9:57 a.m.
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Hogs may try to fill the gap so I’ve got orders to but at 107.55 and 106.50 for today. It’s 8:55 and they’re trying. 107.725 low so far. 

By stomper - April 29, 2021, 1:17 p.m.
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Well, just got the second hog order filled. Now we‘ll see how this develops. One filled at -1.65, one filled at -2.65. And limit up yesterday? How about limit up again today. It’d be nice. 

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 2:15 p.m.
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Thanks stomper!

I've never traded hogs and don't follow them but enjoy following trades.

What's your thinking here?

By stomper - April 30, 2021, 3:02 a.m.
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My thinking... Got an hour?

With the ASF issue in China and elsewhere in se Asia plus S Africa, the unavailability of edible protein, namely pork, is the underlying theme here. If we sent a our entire pork production to China, it wouldn’t make up their shortfall. The leaders there know that every revolution in their history stemmed from a famine. And you’re probably aware that eating pork there is a measure of wealth. Cultural style points. Hence we ain’t getting the real numbers outta there. I’ve suspected long that they’ve been ’influencing’ our futures market(s), to try to hold the prices down. Shoot, they’ve got more money than God to do it. Plus the typhoons wiping out their stored grains. So, my thinking is that it’s inexorable that foodstock prices must rise. Hence I wouldn’t short the hogs in a gap closing move. A fate accompli to be sure, but would the timing be now? That’s why I just placed buy orders at key points below the price. I’ve got a short player’s mindset but can’t short in this scenario. Same as in the grains. After the fact, I looked up today’s Pivot Points and and saw that 106.50 was the 2nd support level. My placement there was just intuitive. I don’t really have an upside objective. Trend is your friend sort of thing. I’ll let the market tell me when it’s over. I’ll step out and in occasionally when I deem it’s necessary, especially now that my account is still small , growing and can’t absorb large but natural swings. I pay heed to other’s opinions especially those that have shown to be capable. There’s more, but that’s the gist of things. I was born a fundamentalist but realized the impact that technicians had, so I do both halfassedly. One of the things that chaps my butt is that TDAMERITRADE won’t condone livestock option trading. NUTS! I need options availability in my work. 

With the hog action not shooting up, in deference to caution, I straight cancelled my resting buy order for a July bean oil at 59.25.....  Once again, oh well. I got in it again but much higher. 60.55. 

By metmike - April 30, 2021, 12:05 p.m.
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Thanks much for that wonderful analysis.

That confirms my suspicion that you know what the heck you're doing.

Agree with you on those typhoons that hit China towards the end of  last growing season.

Nobody had a clue about the extend of damage they caused(including me).........except for China.

After their massive/shocking buying spree........THEN it made total sense to me, although I haven't seen others with the same explanation. 

Many think that this is the new normal. My position is wayt!

If we have good weather this year in the US and China, stocks will rebuild and prices will crash.

This is actually unprecedented in some ways.

US and Brazil did not have catastrophic crops but prices are threatening historical highs.

Everyone wonders how we can be running out?

China produces a huge crop too but uses it to feed 1 billion people. When THEIR crop fails, it affects the entire world and we just don't get accurate info from there..........even months after the crop was severely damaged.

I have no doubt that they did not want the world to know.

Had accurate assessments been made known to the world in Sept/Oct/Nov of last year, the entire world would have been buying hand and foot. 

Instead, China bought when prices were low and there were plenty of sellers that thought those prices were great....................based on what they thought they knew.

Week after week, China kept buying more and more and gradually, the world was like "Wow, this is incredible, how much longer can it go on???"

As it went on even longer, the world was like "Wow, this is really incredible......wait a second,  they've bought so much that we're actually running out of soybeans globally"

At it went on even longer, the world was like "WOW, this is really, really they have bought enough corn to run down global corn stocks!!!"

Same thing with wheat!

U.S. white wheat growers cash in as China snaps up supplies