KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 29, 2021
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.3%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 547K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -39K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3674000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -34K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 417K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 379.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 614K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 110.3)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -10.6%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1883B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +38B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 30, 2021
8:30 AM ET. March Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous -7.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +0.7%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)
9:45 AM ET. April Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 66.3)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 84.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 79.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 93.0)
3:00 PM ET. March Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +6.3%)
N/A Foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities final results
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-week's low crossing at 13,700.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 16th high crossing at 14,059.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-week's low crossing at 13,700.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,308.90.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4130.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4207.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4130.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3987.14.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-08. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.
June T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.010 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 133.230. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.010. Second support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was higher overnight having renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $67.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $61.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $64.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $61.64. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.29.
June heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $1.9778 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.8547 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1.9651. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $1.9778. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.8547. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $1.7344.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it has renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $2.1280 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9861 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.0921. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2.1280. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9861. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $1.8618.
June Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.853 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.988. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.853. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.731.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $90.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.62. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $90.23. Second support is February's low crossing at $89.66.
The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.37. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.91.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3847 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4012. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3847. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0874 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.0795.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $81.39. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $80.31. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.99.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0939 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0939. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918. Second support is the April 9th low crossing at 0.0910.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1760.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the February 23rd high crossing at $1817.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $1817.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1841.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1760.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1746.40.
May silver was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $26.902 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.729 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $26.902. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $27.649. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.729. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.680.
May copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the February-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.6495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.1424 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.5530. Second resistance is the February-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.6495. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3473. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2152.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn is working on a possible inside day and was higher overnight as it consolidates above broken monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.36. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $7.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.84. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.89 3/4.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.98 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If July extends this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $8.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.69 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.98 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.41 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.64 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.73 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline crossing at $8.18 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.77.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $16.59 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $15.74 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $16.59 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.46.
July soybean meal were slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $458.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $439.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $458.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $420.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.10.
July soybean oil was higher overnight and remains poised to extend this year's rally to a new contract high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 65.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 63.39. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 65.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.77.
Thanks tallpine!