Incredible Corn/grains/beans 5-3-21+
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Started by metmike - May 3, 2021, 1:12 p.m.

@kannbwx

Beyond unprecedented move in CBOT May-July #corn spread this week. The inverse finished around 42 cents per bushel on Wednesday and 67 cents on Friday. These levels were seen in 2013 but the move was nowhere near as sudden.

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:22 p.m.
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@kannbwx

May 5: CBOT December #corn futures top $6 per bushel, settling at $6.04-3/4. 

That is up 27% since April 1 and up 39% since Jan 1. Tight supplies, strong demand, and the U.S. and Brazilian crops remain in focus. December 2022 hit a high of $5.20 on Wed.

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:33 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #ethanol output for the last 5 weeks has been hovering btwn 6-7% below the prior 3yr avg (17-19). That's a pandemic best but the improvement is very slow. Stocks are at a 7yr low, though they jumped 3.6% last week. Gas demand is now <5% off recent avgs, also a pandemic best.


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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:44 p.m.
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@kannbwx

 Most-active CBOT #corn futures topped $7 per bushel for the first time since March 2013 on supply concerns largely focused in Brazil, where the crop in southern areas like Parana are fading fast without rain.

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:47 p.m.
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Replying to 

@kannbwx

The decline in SX/CZ in 2019 happened so much differently, too. #Soybeans were falling in mid-April but #corn wasn't falling as much. Then corn started to sharply rally in mid-May but beans were much less willing. Not every day you seen SX up 7% and SX/CZ down so hard...

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:50 p.m.
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@kannbwx

CBOT November #soybeans have risen 7% since April 6, when SX/CZ was 2.63. But December #corn has surged 20%, pushing the ratio down to 2.35 on Tuesday. That sharp decline compares only with 2019 (though the timing is weeks apart), when corn rallied on delayed U.S. planting.

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:52 p.m.
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Replying to 

@kannbwx

Looking ahead, July #wheat is about 38 cents per bushel over July #corn, the first time since June 2013 for the most-active contracts. That implies a stronger use of wheat for feeding relative to corn in the coming months.


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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:54 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Front-month CBOT #wheat futures this week have traded below those of #corn for the first time since July 2013. Both are currently in delivery, and the last times this happened was in the delivery period of March, May and July 2013.

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By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:57 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Putting a little perspective around the recent rally in CBOT #soybeans. I made the first chart in Sept. 2020, highlighting various benchmarks along the way. Most-active soy had risen 15% from Aug 1-Sept. 17, 2020. But looking back now, that was just the very beginning...

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By Jim_M - May 6, 2021, 1:12 p.m.
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And any meaningful rain in SA is being pushed out to the end of May.  

By metmike - May 6, 2021, 2:12 p.m.
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Rains the next 2 weeks for South America.

Completely dry in Central Brazil.

By stomper - May 6, 2021, 3:11 p.m.
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Thanks, mike for the updates. I was gonna msg you earlier, specifically about the SA weather but was too involved in the markets. 

Effing TDAmeritrade‘s ludicrous futures department limits the positions in an account irrespective of the available margin. Prevented me from buying some dec corn last evening. 

This grain scenario is flat out incredible. At times I feel like I’m riding on the back of the tiger. Want to take profits, but then what do you do? Closed out some beans today. Stuck with July wheat and bean oil. Added more July and dec corn. Whew. What a ride.  Cant see the reason behind nov beans rally, tho 

Anyone have an opinion on NinjaTrader as a futures broker?

By metmike - May 6, 2021, 5:48 p.m.
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Great to hear stomper!

                South America weather May            

                            Started by metmike - May 6, 2021, 5:09 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69012/

By wglassfo - May 6, 2021, 6:45 p.m.
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Hi Stomper

Just for some perspective I remember wheat, some yrs ago went to 20.00/bu. I have no idea what class of wheat or the yr. I was on the wrong side and put a spread on to limit losses

I know cash wheat was 20.00 because a producer was offered 20.00 cash for a bin of wheat. He refused and within days the price went down, down. Always wondered when he sold and the price.

Don't know if the millers wanted that class of wheat which was probably in short supply or the reason why the run on price.  I don't remember the other grains going up so much, or anything more

I don't have the energy to look at old graphs as wheat has so many different markets

So: Is this inflation, traders hedging inflation, weather, supply, demand or??

I am not selling new crop corn and I think the amount of new crop sold this yr. so far, is much less than yrs past. Just from what farmers are saying on chat forums so take that for what it worth

Reason for not selling is no insur. that is worth a darn in Canada which then makes me want to see my crop before making decisions on sales. We are dry and the dust is blowing, which doesn't make me confident on my yield potential. And, to put this in perspective, we are not in the driest part of the country. I expect others are selling small amounts. As one farmer said every sale has been less than today, which sort of limits the selling. Our last radar event showed lots of cloud cover but rain was a bust.

One more thing. JMO but if SA stays dry they may be lucky to grow enough feed grain for domestic needs. That means some body else has to step up and sell to world demand. Sadly some may not be able to pay the bidding price for scarce product.

You should make a list of all the products that are on back order with no definite delivery date. More items are becoming scarce, as the bidding wars for scarce materials and products go up and up with no idea when delivery will happen. 

Strange world and I  think this time is different, mostly due to the production damage done by covid

Have you tried to buy a new ATV. None available for 2021/22 around here.  

more examples.

 Local dealer has a pick up listed for 100,000.00 Cad on the lot and will not accept a penny less than 100,000.00 Reason. No more available so when that one goes, nothing to replace on the lot. Inflation?? Since when have you paid less for your next car purchase???. My 5 yr old used truck, retails for more than I paid for it.

Agriculture machinery: New is mostly sold out for 2022. Now the better used equipment is being sold for high prices. Same with used cars. Looking for rare earth material, just when Biden wants to go green and demand for batteries will go sky high. You guessed it. Shortage of rare earth material. Want to buy iron ore. Price has gone up, a lot. Want steel. Good luck finding any extra. End user wants product but no steel to make the various products


So : This is why I think this time is different

By stomper - May 6, 2021, 7:16 p.m.
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Yes, Wayne, this time is certainly different. 

It seems to be a confluence of major forces. Chip insufficiency prevents cars, trucks and many other things from being manufactured. China’s near choke hold on rare earth element production. China’s enormous population’s food needs and the agriculture calamities they have and are dealing with. Now South American grain production is becoming tenuous. What happens if ASF or PED hits here? 

I can go on: drought here progressing; COVID re-emerging and ramping up big time elsewhere; insane new Washington DC ‘economic’ policies (Keystone pipeline, for one example). But I don’t want to be a Cassandra here.

A whirlwind of strong winds a-blowin, methinks. 

We here on the forum are fortunate to have this resource to help us to profitability muddle through the coming, shall I say, difficulties?

As the ancient Chinese curse says—“May you live in interesting times.”


Trade on. 

By metmike - May 7, 2021, 10:10 p.m.
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@kannbwx

CBOT November #soybeans on Thursday continued their plunge versus December #corn despite trading to new highs and above $14 per bushel for the first time. SX/CZ traded as low as 2.25 early Thursday, implying the market is more worried about new-crop corn supplies than soybeans.


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By metmike - May 7, 2021, 10:13 p.m.
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Replying to 

@kannbwx

Here's looking at just the past 20 years. December #corn rose 15% from March 1-May 10, which is probably the closest comparison with 2021's +33% since March 1

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By metmike - May 7, 2021, 10:14 p.m.
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@kannbwx

CBOT December #corn futures have rallied about 33% since March 1. Nothing has ever come close within the same time frame in nearly 50 years. The best Mar 1 - May 6 rally was 13% in both 1973 and 1987.


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By metmike - May 7, 2021, 10:18 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#China imported 7.45 mln tonnes of #soybeans in April as U.S. arrivals slowed and #Brazil shipments increased. The late start to Brazil's season impacted April intake, and volumes are expected to increase now. Jan-Apr total is 28.6 mmt, up 17% YOY and +4% on 2017's record.

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