INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 4, 2021, 7:42 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, June 4, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 PM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 6247.3K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 304.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 403.3K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +674K; previous +266K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 5.9%; previous 6.1%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.17)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.21)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.70%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +0.33%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 35)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +48K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +218K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.7%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

Monday, June 7, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 105.44)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +25.8B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,462.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the May 7th high crossing at 13,818.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 7th high crossing at 13,818.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46.



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the May 13th low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that a possible double top with May's high has been posted with Tuesday's high. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4131.45 would signal that a double top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off the May 13th low, May's high crossing at 4238.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4230.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4131.45. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off May's high, the March 30th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the May 13th low crossing at 155-14. Second support is the March 30th low crossing at 153-29.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.065 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the May 17th high crossing at 132.215 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 132.215. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.065. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Third support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $69.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $65.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $69.40. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $69.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $65.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $63.43.



July heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off the May 21st low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0417 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $2.1236. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0417. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9387.  



July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it challenges resistance marked by May's high crossing at $2.2045. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1368 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.2139. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1368. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0592. 



July Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.016 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 3.204 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is May's high crossing at 3.204. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.016. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.903  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's loses above the May 28th high crossing at $90.43 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at $90.43. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.



The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at $121.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.49.

 

The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.4091 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.4091. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3957.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 19th low crossing at 1.1060 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1203. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the May 19th low crossing at 1.1060. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0956.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends May's trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 13th low crossing at $81.95 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the May 13th crossing at $81.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.17.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091614 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1870.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1945.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1916.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1945.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1870.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1802.50.



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 21st low crossing at $27.265 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the May 21st low crossing at $27.265. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $26.780. 



July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3904 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is May's low crossing at 4.4350. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3904.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates above this week's decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.96 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $5.76 1/2.        



July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $7.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If July renews the decline off May's low, the 75% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.36 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.02. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.46. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at $8.07 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.35 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.31 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.59 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. At the same time, if the rally off last-Wednesday's low fails, it would suggest that the rally has formed the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.95 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $15.89. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.95 1/2. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at $13.74 3/4.

 

July soybean meal was steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $378.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.     


July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are  possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally above the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the May 24th low crossing at 64.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.13. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the May 24th low crossing at 64.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.94.   


Comments
By metmike - June 4, 2021, 8:59 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Position of heat ridge will determine the grain and ng trading for the next week.

Some models have it shifting west or southwest in week 2.

The location will mean everything. Probably less heat in the east ...might turn less bullish but could still be pretty hot in the Midwest and without much rain so potentially bullish grains.....if it goes farther west then we get northwest flow in the Midwest and the chance of rains increasing.

Out of my  home office this morning