I just read an interesting article explaining why oil might go to 300.00, almost 300.00 or higher in the next few yrs. I am not very intelligent on things such as oil price and clean energy so I will just touch on some high points my brain can absorb
Time table unknown but think about the following
Is there any new drilling for oil. Russia/Saudia may increase oil out put. Maybe some others in the ME
But will we in the west where WTI is priced be able to buy cheap oil from the ME
Not if the environmentalist have their way and it seems as if they have the upper hand
I would guess we in the west will be taxed heavily on oil or any of it's products
The gate keepers want oil drilling stopped, coal fired plants shuttered and in short all forms of fossil or any energy that has a carbon foot print is bad
Nobody wants a nuclear plant in their back yard or any where for that matter. Reason being, other than the occasional accident, what do you do with the spent rods???
So what happens
Pump gas is taxed more and more
Oil is bad thus it must be taxed
In short in order to buy oil we will pay a ransom, in tax before any oil is unloaded in the west. That is the easiest way to keep oil from wide use age. Just tax it at the unloading port. One tax vs 1000's of taxes all over the country
300.00/barrel doesn't look at all out of line when alternative energy is the golden energy, and you can bet that energy will come with a very high cost
How much will it cost to produce alternative energy
Nobody knows but you can bet oil will be priced higher than alternative energy
Just think about the ramifications and try to find fault with my thinking
Not today and as I said
Time line unknown but Biden will want some thing big before 4 yrs is gone
I expect he will want imports severely limited for western consumption. How do you limit imports
By high taxes and this means a high cost of oil
I am going to look at some 300.00 2025 call options
At $300 oil, gasoline would probably be $10+. Maybe close to $15.
That would crush the budgets of poor folks and cause the price of most other things to soar.
I agree that they want the price to be sky high so that expensive,unreliable and diffuse solar and wind seemcheap compared to fossil fuels.
The fake climate crisis will also give them justification for imposing carbon taxes and penalties on all forms of energy.
Heating and cooling our homes and electricity rates will be going much higher too from this.w
well you specifically asked me about oil so . . . .
Accourding to my cycles and research, we should have hit $245 going into Jan 2020 and then a pull back back down to about $100 followed by a move to $350 into 2026.
At this point, I see the low at -$40 to hold and that we are now in an uptrend towards $245. As long as we get about $100 on wtic with the next 12 months, I would think the cycles can still work out to see $350 into 2026. If we are still below $100 in a year from now then $350 target into 2026 will get pushed back too.
My two cents for what it is worth . . .