INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - June 10, 2021, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, June 10, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 385K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -20K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3771000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +169K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2313B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. May Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 



 

 

Friday, June 11, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 82.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 77.6)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,564.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 14,064.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,917.25. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,564.61. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the May 13th low, May's high crossing at 4238.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4154.61 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4236.75. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4154.61. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 160-23. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-18. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 155-14.  



June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low  crossing at 132.160 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 133.250. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 132.160. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.122.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $70.62. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.21.



July heating oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0615 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0615. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9655.  



July unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1515 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2365. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1515. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0801. 



July Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 3.204 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.010 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance resistance is May's high crossing at 3.204. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.010. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.939.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $90.63 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.81. If June resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 13th high crossing at $90.91. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.83 is the next downside target. Closes above May's high crossing at $122.71 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $121.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.83.

 

The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4091 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4091. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3988.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1205. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0998. 

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 13th low crossing at $81.95 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the May 13th crossing at $81.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.45.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091640 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1819.00.



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.808. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4316 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888 later this summer. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4316. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight aided by hot, dry weather forecasts for the upper Midwest. Traders expect today's USDA WASDE report will show further declines in the 2020/21 ending stocks for ending stocks for corn moving down from 1.257 billion bushels in May to 1.207 billion bushels in June. Traders also expect to see further cuts to 2021/22 corn ending stocks moving from 1.507 billion bushels in May down to 1.423 billion bushels for June. This morning is USDA’s weekly export report is expected to show corn sales ranging between 11.8 million and 43.3 million bushels for the week ending June 3. Ethanol production rose again for the week ending June 4 to a daily average of 1.067 million barrels, which was the highest weekly total since February 2020. Ethanol stocks rose by 2% this past week. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.52 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.39 3/4.        



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. morning’s Traders expect to see a moderate increase in 2020/21 wheat ending stocks from 872 million bushels in May up to 869 million bushels for June in today's USDA WASDE report. Traders also expect to see the 2021/22 ending stocks will rise from 774 million bushels in May up to 783 million bushels. Traders are expecting this morning's export sales report to show wheat sales ranging from 7.3 million to 16.5 million bushels for the week ending June 3. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.17 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's sell off. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.36 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.36 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.16 3/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was higher overnight. Traders expect that today's WASDE report from the USDA will show a slight increase in its estimates for 2020/21 soybean ending stocks from 120 million bushels in May up to 122 million bushels. Traders also expect to see the 2021/22 ending stocks increased from 140 million bushels up to 146 million bushels. Pre-report estimates for this morning’s weekly export report from USDA are expected to come in between zero and 22.0 million bushels for the week ending June 3. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.52 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.10 1/4.

 

July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is May's low crossing at $378.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.     


July soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.16. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 64.23.    


Comments
By metmike - June 10, 2021, 12:04 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!