KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 24.3)
Employment Idx (previous 13.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 28.9)
Prices Received (previous 37.1)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. May PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +14.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.5%)
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 74.9%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.5)
10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 83)
10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.3%)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.8M)
N/A Delaware Separation Day holiday
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as inflation fears recede. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 14,064.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,651.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14,044.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,651.55. Second support is the June 3rd low crossing at 13,462.25.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record highs. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally above May's high crossing at 4238.25, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4165.32 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4256.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4165.32. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 161-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-25.
June T-notes were higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.292 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 134.020. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.081. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.292.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $71.70. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.66.
July heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0729 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0729. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9785.
July unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1602 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2365. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1602. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0892.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.076 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.330. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.138. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.076.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.70 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.70. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.96 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at $122.71 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.96. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $120.58.
The June British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4081 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4081. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4002.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 4th low crossing at 1.1047 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1205. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the June 4th low crossing at 1.1047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1018.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.74 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $82.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.56.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091671 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the June 3rd low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 4th low crossing at $1855.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40. First support is the June 4th low crossing at $1855.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1825.00.
July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 3rd low crossing at $27.090 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the June 3rd low crossing at $27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.940.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4530 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888 later this summer. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4530. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was sharply lower lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.44 3/4.
July wheat was sharply lower overnight marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 3rd low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is the June 3rd low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat was sharply lower overnight and poised to confirm a downside breakout of the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 3rd low crossing at $6.17 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.
July Minneapolis wheat was sharply lower overnight as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.37 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.37 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.22 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $14.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.47 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is June's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $14.58. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $13.74 3/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight and has renewed its decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $409.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $409.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at $377.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.
July soybean oil gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.97. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.25. Second support is the April 26th low crossing at 58.46.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.35 at $119.98.
July hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.11.
August cattle closed up $1.48 at $120.03.
August cattle closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.44 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, the May 25th high crossing at $121.23 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at $111.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 25th high crossing at $121.23. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $122.80. First support is May's low crossing at $114.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.92.
August Feeder cattle closed up $2.83 at $151.23.
August Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at $145.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $157.20. First support is June's low crossing at $145.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.52.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.83 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!