Renewing the NG thread here.
I'm going out on a limb here, and say that the reason for the continuing drive in the price, is the heat dome out west. I don't see Elsa as that big a deal as far as NG goes. Perhaps just an excuse.
Elsa was definitely an excuse!
Blowoff top/buying exhaustion in a bull market that hadvery little to do,with Elsa.
Forecasts getting cooler were just too much.
The very early AM European model coming in cooler put the last nail in the short term bullish coffin.
Today may mark a technical strong reversal down day that could put the highs in for awhile.
Edit-unless the forecast turns hotter again.
PREVIOUS THREAD:
I think that this was mainly just an excuse to go lower as the 0Z Tue EE was still 3 CDD warmer than the 0Z Fri EE while the GFS E was about the same as Fri. Overdone as usual.
Thanks Larry, in the hospital with dad so I can’t post the graphs but the previous early am european ens model came in quite a cooler in week 2 than the previous run.
The 12z GFS was the coolest in several runs.
This last european ens model came out much warmer in week 2 and ng has bounced to mid range and only a bit lower.
Do you agree with this.
You're pretty much dead on. Yes, the 12Z GEFS is the coolest in awhile. The 12Z EE came in 3 CDD warmer than the 0Z, which itself had been 3 CDD cooler (all in the 11-15). So, today's 12Z EE is on par with yesterday's 12Z EE and is ~6 CDD warmer than the Fri 0Z EE. So, changes in the EE 11-15 runs, indeed, but not by a whole lot. IMO, the market primed to crash with just the smallest excuse after going up 9 days in a row. Although it is silly, it may have used the excuse of Elsa staying near FL although that was the forecast back on Fri and its impact in the W GOM could have easily been more bearish than bullish.
PS: Hoping your dad gets out soon! You're a very good son.
WX
Any guidance for grain traders? Was/is rain over forecasted? Poor totals? TIA
tjc,
I'm sorry, but I haven't been following the grains/Midwest rainfall.
As cooling demand expectations eased slightly in the latest weather data, natural gas futures hovered close to even early Wednesday. At around 8:45 a.m. ET, the August Nymex contract was off 0.5 cents to $3.632/MMBtu. The latest forecast from Bespoke Weather Services Wednesday showed a small decrease in gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) expectations, with the…
metmike: European model was back to much cooler very early this morning.
Natural gas futures on Wednesday dropped lower, following a decline the previous day, as traders mulled weather-driven demand, stagnated liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, and the potential storage injection with the federal government’s pending report Thursday morning. The August Nymex contract fell 4.1 cents day/day and settled at $3.596/MMBtu. September shed 3.4 cents to $3.574.…
Thursday morning:
Temperatures the 7 days for the EIA report this week. Record heat in the Northwest. Hot in the Northeast. Cool C.Plains to NM.
for week ending July 2, 2021 | Released: July 8, 2021 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 15, 2021
+ 16 BCF VERY BULLISH!!!
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/02/20) | 5-year average (2016-20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/02/21 | 06/25/21 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 521 | 513 | 8 | 8 | 654 | -20.3 | 578 | -9.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 638 | 623 | 15 | 15 | 758 | -15.8 | 656 | -2.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 177 | 173 | 4 | 4 | 179 | -1.1 | 170 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 246 | 244 | 2 | 2 | 309 | -20.4 | 286 | -14.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 991 | 1,005 | -14 | -14 | 1,225 | -19.1 | 1,075 | -7.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 286 | 296 | -10 | -10 | 365 | -21.6 | 310 | -7.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 705 | 709 | -4 | -4 | 861 | -18.1 | 765 | -7.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,574 | 2,558 | 16 | 16 | 3,125 | -17.6 | 2,764 | -6.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,574 Bcf as of Friday, July 2, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 16 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 551 Bcf less than last year at this time and 190 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,764 Bcf. At 2,574 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
| Jul 08, 2021 | 10:30 | 16B | 34B | 76B | |
| Jul 01, 2021 | 10:30 | 76B | 68B | 55B | |
| Jun 24, 2021 | 10:30 | 55B | 66B | 16B | |
| Jun 17, 2021 | 10:30 | 16B | 72B | 98B | |
| Jun 10, 2021 | 10:30 | 98B | 98B | 98B | |
| Jun 03, 2021 | 10:30 | 98B | 95B | 115B |
metmike: Quite a shocker. Explains the amazing strength for natural gas last week, into the holiday portion of this week.
1. This last EIA release was the most bullish since January with a bullish miss of 17 bcf vs the WSJ survey mean.
2. I have the EE and GE at 12Z today both near 5 CDD more bearish on a same day basis vs the Fri 12Z runs.
Thanks Larry!
The ng market is pretty weak so far this evening, likely from the slight cooler weather forecast.
This is often a very bearish time of the year, seasonally/historically for natural gas.
Temperatures for the 7 days for this weeks EIA report
Hot-West Mild-South Cool-Northeast
WOW Huge breakout. WX, could you please comment TIA
metmike: Pretty impressive strength without much help from the weather. However, week 2 does heat up.
NG looks to be building some strong resistance up around the $3.80 area. Better be a bullish injection Thursday.
Off the wire...
Natural gas is on a tear, up 45% year-to-date and trading another 2.2% higher mid-morning in NY at a nearly three-year high of $3.758/mmBtu. But analysts at BofA Global Research are skeptical. "We struggle to identify fundamental drivers to support the magnitude of the move higher," they say. "First the storage deficit remains modest ... Second, while coal to gas switching has been more resilient than thought, we still estimate about 1 Bcf/d of switching will take place between $3.00/MMBtu and $3.40/MMBtu. Finally, we maintain our view that production will continue to edge higher and accelerate into 2022 with L48 production growing nearly 4 Bcf/d year over year."
Thanks Jim!!
Traders looked past a tilt toward cooler weather in new forecasts and focused instead on near-term heat and expectations for both strong domestic demand and U.S. exports over the balance of summer, sending natural gas futures higher on Monday. At A Glance: Traders zero in on near-term heat LNG demand to surge further Outlooks call…
metmike: tjc, you trade right? In fact, you have been trading for a very long time. What are your thoughts on the ng market please? We can all benefit from your views.
Thanks
At this point, post hurricanes are selling opportunities.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending July 9, 2021 | Released: July 15, 2021 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 22, 2021
+55 BCF Bearish
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/09/20) | 5-year average (2016-20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/09/21 | 07/02/21 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 543 | 521 | 22 | 22 | 670 | -19.0 | 598 | -9.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 662 | 638 | 24 | 24 | 777 | -14.8 | 678 | -2.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 180 | 177 | 3 | 3 | 185 | -2.7 | 175 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 250 | 246 | 4 | 4 | 312 | -19.9 | 290 | -13.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 995 | 991 | 4 | 4 | 1,228 | -19.0 | 1,078 | -7.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 283 | 286 | -3 | -3 | 360 | -21.4 | 305 | -7.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 712 | 705 | 7 | 7 | 868 | -18.0 | 773 | -7.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,629 | 2,574 | 55 | 55 | 3,172 | -17.1 | 2,818 | -6.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,629 Bcf as of Friday, July 9, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 543 Bcf less than last year at this time and 189 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,818 Bcf. At 2,629 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Still seeing a lot of conflict in the market. Bearish report, but stocks low compared to last year. Of which 2020 was an unusual year for everything. What I see, is above average stocks for this time of year. Mostly due to the milder summer we've been having.
"What I see, is above average stocks for this time of year."
Thanks Mark!
The gray line below is the 5 year average. The blue line is the lastest stocks number. The blue line falling below the gray line is a big part of the bullishness in ng recently.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72023/#72263
I thought I saw something the other day where China is restricting buying LNG until the price is about $1 cheaper.
China and much of Europe had a very cold Winter and started the year with very low natural gas in storage that has required them to buy a ton of ng, some from the US.
Thats a big part of why we've had record exports.
That and Russia (Gazprom) is squeezing them.
Natural gas futures rebounded on Friday, following three straight daily losses, as traders mulled the potential for paltry levels of stockpiles ahead of the withdrawal season later this year. The August Nymex contract gained 6.0 cents day/day and settled at $3.674/MMBtu. September advanced 5.7 cents to $3.658. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, fell 13.5…
Yes, today NG had modest warmer wx support (modestly increased CDDs in the models after modest drops just prior), but make no mistake about it that NG these last few days overall has been supported mainly by non-wx influences in my strong opinion. Also, forecasted US CDDs are still not looking all that far from overall, regardless. The morning 15 day forecast that I saw was actually slightly cooler than the 10 year average.
So, there clearly are other market factors in play.
Thanks Larry!
Much agreed, this has not been a very good weather play.
Today, with crude PLUNGING more than $5, mainly from concerns because of COVID increasing again with ignorant people refusing to get vaccinated, we had the perfect excuse for natural gas to sell off...........if it wanted to. Instead we went up almost $1,000/contract.
Can't really tie weather as an issue to the market. It seems we are in a flip-flop with the northwest. Alabama has had so much rain and lower than average temps for this time of year. According to the GFS, we should take a sudden dive into average temps in about 2 weeks. But that's been on the radar for the last month. Changes daily. As does the weather. Predictions/expectations, just haven't panned out.
Seasonals are a bust as well. Last year it was due to the covid. Got that. This year?
JMHO
We are behind the 5 year average. I believe Mike has mentioned that exports are up and I know that Europe is playing catch up with their storage. Country wide heat wave coming and injections have been wanting. We haven't even really got started with hurricanes yet. Maybe we won't have any hurricanes shooting up into the Gulf this year, but if we do that will slow the pace as well.
Agreed Jim!
Massive heat wave coming up which could challenge all time highest AC use for residential cooling in the country. This has been amazing!
From earlier this morning:
Mike,
It is indeed looking hotter/hot, but the number of added CDDs this week is only a modest ~8. Actually, if we were to compare forecasted CDDs now with forecasted CDDs as of a week ago Monday, they are about a wash. So, I still say there are other bullish supporting factors that have been a big factor.
Thanks much Larry!
Yes, I should have elaborated on the reasoning for this to be amazing.
Not because the weather is so amazing but the incredible, super duper bullish reaction to the weather.
When was the price of ng last up this high.....other than a brief spike higher during a record cold spell in Winter?
++++++++++++++++++++++
Thursday morning early:
for week ending July 16, 2021 | Released: July 22, 2021 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 29, 2021
+49 BCF a bit bearish?
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/16/20) | 5-year average (2016-20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/16/21 | 07/09/21 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 562 | 543 | 19 | 19 | 690 | -18.6 | 618 | -9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 683 | 662 | 21 | 21 | 796 | -14.2 | 697 | -2.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 183 | 180 | 3 | 3 | 189 | -3.2 | 178 | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 247 | 250 | -3 | -3 | 311 | -20.6 | 290 | -14.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,002 | 995 | 7 | 7 | 1,222 | -18.0 | 1,071 | -6.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 279 | 283 | -4 | -4 | 350 | -20.3 | 295 | -5.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 723 | 712 | 11 | 11 | 872 | -17.1 | 776 | -6.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,678 | 2,629 | 49 | 49 | 3,210 | -16.6 | 2,854 | -6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,678 Bcf as of Friday, July 16, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 532 Bcf less than last year at this time and 176 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,854 Bcf. At 2,678 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
Latest Release Jul 22, 2021 Actual49B Forecast44B Previous55B
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2021 | 10:30 | 49B | 44B | 55B | |
| Jul 15, 2021 | 10:30 | 55B | 47B | 16B | |
| Jul 08, 2021 | 10:30 | 16B | 34B | 76B | |
| Jul 01, 2021 | 10:30 | 76B | 68B | 55B | |
| Jun 24, 2021 | 10:30 | 55B | 66B | 16B | |
| Jun 17, 2021 | 10:30 | 16B | 72B | 98B |
These were the 7 day temps for the period in this morning's EIA report.
Hot, especially in the middle of the country! Some of that heat affected the East and South. Cool along the West Coast.
Not bearish enough to overcome the forecast.
There's no doubt in my mind that NG's over 4 cent drop 2:15-3:30 PM EDT was largely brought on by profit-taking of longs and new shorts when the Euro suite came in cooler, especially the EE in week 2.
*Edit: I started a new NG thread here:
https://marketforum.com/forum/topic/72658/