NG 7/24/21+
57 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - July 24, 2021, 9:55 p.m.

 Here's a new NG thread. On Friday, NG sold off 4 cents 1:15-2:30 PM CDT. I'm pretty confident that that was due to a cooler Euro suite, especially cooler week 2 on the EE.

 With the 12Z Sun EE and GE both having lost a handful or so of CDDs vs the 12Z Fri runs and with forecasts a little cooler as a result, it is no surprise that NG opened down a few cents.


Comments
Re: NG 7/24/21+
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By metmike - July 25, 2021, 11:10 p.m.
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Thanks much Larry!

This is the previous thread. I'll add more here when I get the chance.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72023/

By joelund - July 26, 2021, 8:57 a.m.
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Directors Cut7/20/2021







NDIC









Oil
M over M
M over MGasM over M
M over M

MthMthly cum
Bbls/ D
Mthly cum
Mcf/ D
2021May34,953,0344%1,127,5171%92,411,5374%2,981,0171%

April33,646,529-2%1,121,5511%88,898,7780%2,963,2933%

March34,361,66813%1,108,4412%89,236,53518%2,878,5986%

Feb30,324,555-15%1,083,020-6%75,710,555-14%2,703,943-5%

Jan35,568,679-4%1,147,377-4%88,327,784-2%2,849,283-2%
2020Dec36,956,5041%1,192,145-3%89,680,1504%2,892,9080%

Nov36,736,201-3%1,224,2400%86,323,059-3%2,887,4020%

Oct37,909,0083%1,223,1070%89,083,2815%2,873,6542%

Sept36,649,9971%1,221,6675%84,453,3743%2,815,1127%

Aug36,126,49212%1,165,37112%81,692,74214%2,635,25014%

July32,304,50321%1,042,08117%71,375,12521%2,302,35617%

June26,703,2680%890,1094%59,198,681-1%1,973,2892%

May26,640,218-27%859,362-30%59,771,779-27%1,928,122-29%

April36,572,571-17%1,219,086-15%81,365,042-16%2,712,168-13%

March44,276,463
1,428,273
96,902,755
3,125,895











All time highs







Oil1,519,037Bbls/D11/30/19





Gas3,145,172Mcf/D11/30/19





Rig count218
5/29/2012




By WxFollower - July 26, 2021, 11:09 a.m.
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 NG has now been certified as the “wackiest, wildest, most incredible” market in history…. in futures. Yes, that’s a play on Jon Sterling’s call during the 7/4-5/1985 Atlanta Braves-NY Mets game when Atlanta’s horrible hitting relief pitcher Rick Camp with 2 outs and on an 0-2 pitch hit his first and only home run ever to tie the game in the bottom of the 18th to send it to 19.

 NG having risen to 4.165 made less than zero sense from a wx standpoint at least. And then it plunged 15 cents to within 2 cents of the session low just 1.75 hours later!

By metmike - July 26, 2021, 1:53 p.m.
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Yes, I've been tied up and not watching every tick like I often do but that was really wild like you said.


Expiration of the front month, August early this week probably played a role.

The overnight Euro had MORE CDD's/was bullish then the next 6z GFS had LESS CDD's, so that also could have been a huge factor and the market is ULTRA sensitive.

By metmike - July 26, 2021, 1:54 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures ‘Racing Higher’ Early as Demand Seen Rising This Week

 Strong heat this week and the prospect of more to come in August helped natural gas futures to keep climbing in early trading Monday. The August Nymex contract was up 9.1 cents to $4.151/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. September was up 8.6 cents to $4.128. After breaking through resistance at the $4 mark last… 

Re: NG 7/24/21+
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By WxFollower - July 26, 2021, 2:12 p.m.
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 Like has been the case for many days of the last few weeks, it isn't just wx that has been propping up NG today. Actually, wx is net bearish vs Fri on a change basis and that includes the 0Z EE vs Fri.

 Update after 12Z EE: went back cooler and lost as much as the 0Z run gained in CDD. That did lead to a 3 cent selloff after an unexplained (in terms of wx changes I mean) rise of 3-4 cents. So, here we are in the 4.060's for Sep, which is still some 6-7 cents higher than it was when it opened last night following yesterday's 12Z EE, which is similar to today's 12Z EE. Again, more evidence that NG had nonwx bullish factors leading to buying.


Edit: And now back up to 4.085. Has to be more too it than wx that isn't already dialed in because the 12Z GE and EE were both notably cooler.


 

By metmike - July 26, 2021, 11:05 p.m.
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As Demand Further Strengthens, August Natural Gas Futures Extend Rally; Cash Prices Climb

 Natural gas futures on Monday advanced for a seventh consecutive session as robust domestic cooling demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels continued to drive up prices that are at their highest levels since 2018. The August Nymex contract advanced 4.2 cents day/day and settled at $4.102/MMBtu. The prompt month gained nearly 11%… 

By WxFollower - July 27, 2021, 12:09 p.m.
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Finally, NG goes down due to cooler forecasts. Finally! Took it long enough. 

By metmike - July 27, 2021, 12:30 p.m.
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Even at $4.00, Higher Natural Gas Prices Needed, Says Raymond James

 Natural gas prices crested the $4.00/MMBtu mark last week, and though the gains may have come quickly, price may need to be higher to incentivize more coal in power generation to help balance the market, according to Raymond James & Associates Inc. Coal’s share of the power generation stack would have to increase by more… 

By metmike - July 27, 2021, 12:37 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

While I don't disagree with you, when a market has not responded to weather changes on several occasions in a row, how do you know that THIS time it was responding to them, after not doing so a bunch of times previously, especially with the expiration of the front month August?

What tells you that this time was different..........other than assuming that when it happened, it would be from the cooler changes.

The European model overnight WAS cooler for sure.

Again, I agree with the idea but am wondering why the same idea wouldn't work so many times recently for natural gas?

By WxFollower - July 27, 2021, 12:52 p.m.
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Hey Mike,

 Good point! I don't know for sure but I'm assuming that it finally went down due to cooler forecasts/models. I have both the EE and GE a whopping 12 CDDs cooler vs 24 hours ago. I'm assuming that was too much for the underlying bullish factors to "bear". <G>

By metmike - July 27, 2021, 1:29 p.m.
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Wow Larry, I didn't realize it was THAT much.   This is pretty compelling.  I've been busy with so many other things and with NGQ expiring, was not tracking the exact CDD numbers. 

Thanks!

By metmike - July 28, 2021, 1:01 a.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures Rally Loses Steam Ahead of Expiry; Spot Prices Sputter

 Natural gas futures on Tuesday finished lower for the first time in eight sessions, as traders took profits and customary volatility near the prompt month’s expiration emerged. Markets also weighed forecasts for modestly milder weather next week, though overall strong demand and tighter storage inventories that have fueled supply concerns could support a rebound in… 

By WxFollower - July 28, 2021, 11:11 a.m.
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It was more than “modestly” milder wx. It was quite a bit milder wx.

By metmike - July 28, 2021, 12:45 p.m.
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WxFollower vs Natural Gas Intelligence


I'll take WxFollower every single time!!

By metmike - July 28, 2021, 6:27 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back; August Closes Strong Run as Prompt Month on High Note

 Natural gas futures rebounded on Wednesday as traders refocused on expectations for strong weather-driven demand in August and continued steady export activity. The August Nymex contract gained 7.3 cents day/day and settled at $4.044/MMBtu. September rose 2.5 cents to $3.967. At A Glance: Futures fly higher eight out of nine days August expires as prompt… 


metmike: The afternoon trading felt like anything but strong. ...............but who would have guessed at the start of the year that prices would be this high??

By metmike - July 28, 2021, 6:29 p.m.
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                Re: From the Bakken. 23 Rigs running and I have 1            

                                                       By joelund - July 26, 2021, 8:57 a.m


Thanks much Joe!

By MarkB - July 29, 2021, 10:41 a.m.
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Well, that was entertaining. Watched the anticipation build up for a bullish run from the report, but it was very shortlived. Not that the report itself was very bullish.

By metmike - July 29, 2021, 11:31 a.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 23, 2021   |  Released: July 29, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 5, 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  +36  BCF  BULLISH!                                                                                                                                                                                        

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/23/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region07/23/2107/16/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East583  562  21  21   704  -17.2  636  -8.3  
Midwest702  683  19  19   813  -13.7  715  -1.8  
Mountain184  183  1  1   195  -5.6  181  1.7  
Pacific246  247  -1  -1   313  -21.4  289  -14.9  
South Central999  1,002  -3  -3   1,212  -17.6  1,060  -5.8  
   Salt269  279  -10  -10   340  -20.9  283  -4.9  
   Nonsalt729  723  6  6   872  -16.4  776  -6.1  
Total2,714  2,678  36  36   3,237  -16.2  2,882  -5.8  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,714 Bcf as of Friday, July 23, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 523 Bcf less than last year at this time and 168 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,882 Bcf. At 2,714 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 


By metmike - July 29, 2021, 11:34 a.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386 

Latest  Release    Jul 29, 2021   Actual   36B    Forecast 43B    Previous   49B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jul 29, 2021 10:3036B43B49B
Jul 22, 2021 10:3049B44B55B
Jul 15, 2021 10:3055B47B16B
Jul 08, 2021 10:3016B34B76B
Jul 01, 2021 10:3076B68B55B
Jun 24, 2021 10:3055B66B16B


By metmike - July 29, 2021, 11:39 a.m.
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7 Days ending last Friday for this latest EIA report. This is climatologically the hottest week of the year.

Hot N.Plains.

NOT as hot as usual S.Plains to Northeast.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210723.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 29, 2021, 3:30 p.m.
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September Natural Gas Futures Surge After Storage Injection Proves Bullish for Prices

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 36 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended July 23, a bullish print that sent natural gas futures higher. Ahead of the inventory report, the prompt month was up 1.6 cents at $3.983/MMBtu. The September contract jumped to around $4.010 when… 


metmike: Cooler European model is letting out some of the steam in the bullish reaction. 

By metmike - July 29, 2021, 10:41 p.m.
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Boosted by Bullish Storage Print, September Natural Gas Futures Contract Soars in Debut as Front Month

 Natural gas futures flew higher on Thursday, bolstered by strong fundamentals and a bullish government inventory report that reinforced concerns about supply/demand imbalance and the specter of anemic storage levels ahead of winter. The September Nymex contract, which took over as the prompt month on Thursday, jumped 9.2 cents day/day and settled at $4.059/MMBtu. A… 

By metmike - July 30, 2021, 2:39 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Reverse Lower as Weather Trends Cooler, Tetco Restrictions Lifted

 Cooler forecast trends for next week and the prospect of restored pipeline capacity uncorking additional supply helped send natural gas futures sharply lower in early trading Friday. The September Nymex contract was down 11.4 cents to $3.945/MMBtu at around 8:55 a.m. ET. The latest 15-day forecast from Bespoke Weather Services shifted somewhat cooler day/day, including… 


metmike: Increasing COVID?

By metmike - July 30, 2021, 7:20 p.m.
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September Natural Gas Futures Flounder Despite Bullish Setup for Balance of Summer; Spot Prices Sag

 Natural gas futures faltered on Friday as traders took profits and markets focused on a near-term shift in weather that is expected to usher in a reprieve from the oppressive heat that has defined the summer to date over much of the Lower 48.   The September Nymex contract dropped 14.5 cents day/day and settled at… 

By metmike - Aug. 2, 2021, 3:36 a.m.
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Major widespread heat coming up!

By metmike - Aug. 2, 2021, 7:17 p.m.
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September Natural Gas Prices Trim Early Gains, but Settle Higher on Returning Heat

 Natural gas futures traded both sides of the $4.00/MMBtu mark on Monday as bullish weather forecasts and persistently sagging storage levels quickly reversed the losses from late last week. The September Nymex gas futures contract hit a $4.042 intraday high but ultimately finished the day at $3.935, up only 2.1 cents from Friday’s close. Spot

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2021, 4:48 p.m.
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Natural gas continues to trade with insanity.

After dropping sharply during the very early morning hours, down below $3.92 just after 7am, it went back on a rampage...........with only very minor assistance for the weather. The 12z GFS added a couple of CDD's but was still lower than Monday's 18z run.

The 12z Euro was around +1 CDD vs the previous run but progression of days is causing total CDD's  to be higher compared to previous runs because we are eliminating the cool CDD from the current regime and replacing it with much warmer temps for new days at the very end of the new periods.

: NG 8/3/21
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By metmike - Aug. 3, 2021, 4:54 p.m.
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Temperatures ending last Friday for this Thursdays EIA report. Except for the Northeast(lots of people) and parts of the Southwest(not many people) much of the country was pretty hot. So the number should be smaller than average for that week, the last week in July.........which usually is one of the smallest numbers of the year because its barely after the climatological peak in temperatures and in fact, captures some of that period.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210731.7day.mean.F.gif

Re: : NG 8/3/21
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By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 11:17 a.m.
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September Natural Gas Prices Rocket Higher on Production Drop, Hotter Forecast

 A step down in production drove natural gas futures prices higher for a second day, with gains accelerating after the latest weather models turned even hotter for next week. The September Nymex gas futures contract settled Tuesday at $4.027, up 9.2 cents on the day. October climbed 9.4 cents to $4.032. At A Glance: TGP

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 2:27 p.m.
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This is clearly a BULL market!!!!

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 7:02 p.m.
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September Natural Gas Prices Hit $4.20 Ahead of Potentially Lowest Injection of Season

 After two solid days in the black, natural gas futures prices reached new heights on Wednesday as production continued to decline, and hot weather remained firmly in next week’s forecast. The September Nymex gas futures contract hit a $4.205 intraday high before settling at $4.158, up 13.1 cents from Tuesday’s close. At A Glance: Next… 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thursday early:

September Natural Gas Prices Lose Steam Ahead of Modest EIA Storage Build

 

After a steep 13-cent rally during the prior trading session, natural gas futures pedaled back a bit early Thursday as major weather models showed slightly less heat in mid-August. The September Nymex gas futures contract was trading two-tenths of a cent lower at $4.156 at 8:45 a.m. ET. Despite the loss of 2-3 cooling degree… 

metmike: Tiny EIA number on the way from last weeks heat.


By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 10:45 a.m.
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Bullish!!

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

  Latest Release   Aug 05, 2021    Actual13B    Forecast21B    Previous36B 
Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Aug 05, 2021 10:3013B21B36B
Jul 29, 2021 10:3036B43B49B
Jul 22, 2021 10:3049B44B55B
Jul 15, 2021 10:3055B47B16B
Jul 08, 2021 10:3016B34B76B
Jul 01, 2021 10:3076B68B55B

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 10:48 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

 for week ending July 30, 2021   |  Released: August 5, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 12, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  +13 BCF BULLISH!                                                                                                                                                                          

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/30/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region07/30/2107/23/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East604  583  21  21   716  -15.6  655  -7.8  
Midwest719  702  17  17   828  -13.2  734  -2.0  
Mountain184  184  0  0   201  -8.5  184  0.0  
Pacific244  246  -2  -2   311  -21.5  287  -15.0  
South Central976  999  -23  -23   1,214  -19.6  1,053  -7.3  
   Salt250  269  -19  -19   336  -25.6  276  -9.4  
   Nonsalt726  729  -3  -3   877  -17.2  777  -6.6  
Total2,727  2,714  13  13   3,269  -16.6  2,912  -6.4  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,727 Bcf as of Friday, July 30, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 13 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 542 Bcf less than last year at this time and 185 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,912 Bcf. At 2,727 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly perio

By Jim_M - Aug. 5, 2021, 10:57 a.m.
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Bullish after the market futzes around making you second guess yourself....    

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:02 a.m.
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Not sure what that point was Jim. Can you translate that please?

The market was obviously expecting this based on the muted reaction and the incredibly high prices compared to the last several years. 

By Jim_M - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:07 a.m.
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Your response indicated you know what I was talking about.  But your point is taken.  The average estimations were at 22BCF injection.  I was expecting us to move comfortably above $4.2 though.  Never happens fast enough.  

By Jim_M - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:10 a.m.
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Of course we do have some weather building in the Atlantic.  Maybe a hurricane will give it lift.  

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:30 a.m.
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Thanks Jim,

I wasn't questioning you, just wanting to be clear........ we need to actually try to understand what other people are saying because in today's world, we need more of that.

I get your point now.


It's too early to decide where ng will end up but it's holding together for the moment.



By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:31 a.m.
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Thanks for bringing up the tropics.

I totally forget about them.

By Jim_M - Aug. 5, 2021, 11:36 a.m.
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Atlantic weather activity has been relatively quiet so far this year.  

By WxFollower - Aug. 5, 2021, 3:29 p.m.
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Jim,

 It is relatively quiet vs last season but last season was a beast. It otherwise really has been relatively quite active vs long term averages/climo with already 5 named storms through just July! And the SE US has had well above average impacts for June-July.


By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 3:54 p.m.
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Larry,

What's your valued opinion on this storage number and how does it stack up with different comparison metrics?

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2021, 7:34 p.m.
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September Natural Gas Prices Retreat in Face of Dangerously Low Storage

 The latest round of government storage data was about as bullish as it could be, but sellers came into the fold once weather models showed the upcoming heat being a little less intense. The September Nymex gas futures contract settled Thursday at $4.140, off 1.8 cents day/day. October slipped 1.5 cents to $4.148. Spot gas… 

By WxFollower - Aug. 6, 2021, 12:50 a.m.
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Mike asked: 

Larry,

What's your valued opinion on this storage number and how does it stack up with different comparison metrics?

----------------------------------

Hey Mike,

 Sorry, I just saw this. I'll try to get back to this as soon as I have time.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2021, 1:19 a.m.
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Looking forward to it Larry.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2021, 12:47 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Slip on Diverging Weather Models, but Storage Build Seen as ‘Mucho Bullish’

 Natural gas futures were slightly lower Friday morning as weather models started to disagree on the pattern for the latter third of the month. With the latest storage data was also still fresh on the minds of traders, the September Nymex gas futures contract was down 1.8 cents day/day at $4.122 at 8:45 a.m. ET.… 


metmike: The 0z European model was a bearish -5 CDD's but then the 6z GFS came in + +5 CDD's vs the previous run! NG is going to have some wild trading for the next several months with these extremely bullish storage reports drawing down the storage vs previous years. This market MUST have a minimal amount in storage by that start  of Winter/the main heating season to be amply supplied in case for a cold Winter. The best way to insure that is with higher prices that encourage additional production.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2021, 11:09 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Take Breather, but Storage Concerns Simmer

September natural gas prices treaded water a bit to finish the week, with growing supply concerns competing with a slightly cooler shift in the latest weather forecasts. The September Nymex gas futures contract settled Friday at $4.140, unchanged on the day. October climbed six-tenths of a cent to $4.154. At A Glance: Hottest summer weather… 

  

By WxFollower - Aug. 8, 2021, 5:16 a.m.
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Mike asked: 

Larry,

What's your valued opinion on this storage number and how does it stack up with different comparison metrics?

-------------------------------------------------------

Mike and others,

 I finally got a chance to do some comparisons with not just earlier this season but also in past summers. My assessment:

- The +13 on 85 CDDs is barely behind the +16 bcf on 82 CDDs of 4 weeks ago for easily the two most bullish weeks of the summer.

- The bullishness of these two weeks this season appears to be about as strong as all other summer weeks going back to 1994 on a CDD adjusted basis!

Most bullish summer weeks (on CDD adjusted basis) of each summer (EIA/CDD)

2021: +16/82

2020: +35/84

2019: +36/91

2018: +24/89

2017: +30/73

2016: +17/87 (also had +11 on 94 CDDs and -6 on 105 CDDs, but these weren't as bullish)

2015: +32/88

2014: +75/64

2013: +41/87

2012: +20/92

2011: +25/100

2010: +27/88

2009: +57/75

2008: +57/74

2007: +21/92

2006:  -12/103 (also had a -7 on 102 but that's not quite as bullish)

2005: +37/89

2004: +70/75

2003: +53/83

 So, of these summers, the only ones comparable are 2017's +30/73 and 2006's -12/103 with 2016's +17/87 pretty close behind by ~8-9 bcf. All of the other summers were 15-20++ bcf more bearish than the most bullish 2021 week. The most bearish were 2004's +70/75, 2003's +53/83, 2011's +25/100, and 2019's +36/91, which were 44/38/36/34 bcf more bearish than 2021's most bullish week.

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2021, 10:51 a.m.
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Thanks a 13,000,000,000!

This one is well worth copying and printing out!

Mike

By Jim_M - Aug. 8, 2021, 3:33 p.m.
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Thats some great information.  Is it me or was Saturday’s NWS 6-10 and 8-14 maps a lot cooler than today’s (Sundays) maps?

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2021, 5:57 p.m.
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Astute observation Jim!

The automated NWS weekend maps were MUCH less hot yesterday than today.

I don't think the market trades on them so much as what the latest models show. The models  that went into them were from data that was obtained the previous evening.

By MarkB - Aug. 8, 2021, 10:37 p.m.
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In my honest observation, we in the SE have had a more moderate season temperature wise. It's August, and we should have already posted several 100+degree days. But the closest we have got, is a handfull of upper 90's at best. Even the lows are cooler than average for this time of year. Weather, both experienced and projected, doesn't really seem to have been the driving factor for NG. At least not over this summer. Seems that most of the driving force has been storage and export demand.

JMHO

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2021, 12:11 a.m.
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Good observation Mark!

This is the last 90 days below, which is the main cooling season so far. 

Temps in the South/Southeast have been around 1 deg. F below average. That's not huge but for 90 days that adds up to less CDD's. It's been -2 deg. F in TX.

Amazing heat out West, with anomolies of +5 deg. F in parts of the Northwest. That's amazing. The heat has been spilling out into the N.Plains and U.Midwest........exactly where the drought is and by no coincidence.......same pattern causing both, related to the cool temps in the tropical Pacific and La Nina type signature as well as the -PDO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/90day/mean/20210806.90day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2021, 12:13 a.m.
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Here's the temps over the last 30 days. Very close to the temps from the last 90 days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20210806.30day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2021, 12:17 a.m.
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While we're on temp maps, here's the 7 days for the next EIA report. Same temp configuration as the 90 and 30 day temps but even cooler where the most people live in the Midwest, East and South.......so the EIA  report this Thursday will show a bigger injection.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210806.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2021, 10:04 a.m.
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Heat Eases in Latest Forecasts as Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Early

 After a cooler shift in forecasts over the weekend, natural gas futures pulled back in early trading Monday. The September Nymex contract was down 6.1 cents to $4.079/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. As of early Monday, the latest temperature outlook trended slightly cooler compared to expectations heading into the weekend, according to Bespoke Weather…