INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 26, 2021, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 26, 2021    

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 769K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -5.9%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.1)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 31.1)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 29.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 14,445.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 15,126.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,181.32.



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Last-Friday's close above the previous reaction high crossing at 4384.50 has renewed this year's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4252.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4408.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4252.05. Second support is June's low crossing at 4126.75.               



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-27. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.  



September T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.156 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.156. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.197.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight asconcerns over demand caused by the spread of COVID-19 variants along with changes to import rules in China offset expectations for tight supplies through the rest of the year.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.96. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July's high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.06.



September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $2.2120 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $2.1901. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120.  First support the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.9171.



September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $2.3123 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1799 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9626 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.3123. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $2.0571. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.9926. Third support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9626. 



September Henry natural gas pushed above $4 per million British thermal units in the U.S. for the first time since December 2018 as summer heat intensified concerns about tight supplies later this year.Prices for the fuel are soaring across the globe as scorching weather has increased demand for electricity to run air conditioners. Domestically, the rally is also underpinned by concern about a potential supply shortfall in the winter, when gas consumption peaks as homes and businesses crank up the heat. Stockpiles are already below normal for the time of year. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.729 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.102. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.825. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.729.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight following a two-day bounce off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.57. Second support is the July 5th low crossing at $92.00. Third support is the June 23rd low crossing at $91.51.



The September Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.40. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $117.64. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3791 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3791. Second resistance is the July 12th high crossing at 1.3913. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 15th high crossing at 1.0984. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1015. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.

 

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.92. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $80.48. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $78.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74.



The September Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Third support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1800.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1836.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1836.00. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $1800.40. Second support is June's low crossing at $1750.10.



September silver was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.890 would signal that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $23.825 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.890. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $26.575. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $24.790. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.825.



September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-Friday's upside breakout of the June-July trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 11th high crossing at 4.6010 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.1665 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for a test of June's low crossing at 4.0940. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 4.6010. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7110. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.1665. Second support is June's low crossing at 4.0940.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The lower overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Updated extended weather forecast for the Midwest along with this afternoon's latest crop conditions report hold the keys to near-term direction in the corn market. However, last-Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.51 3/4 has tempered the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.        



September wheat was lower overnight as scattered rain moving across portions of South Dakota and south central Minnesota triggered additional selling pressure overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.61 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $7.18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.69 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.61 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off the July 7th low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.78 1/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as rain moving across portions of South Dakota and Minnesota pressured the market. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.59 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.59 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight weakness set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target.First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. The lower overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $378.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $375.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $378.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $351.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 


December soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.94 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. If December resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.94. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. Third support is the June 25th low crossing at 56.66.     

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $0.48 at $107.13. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.27. Second resistance is the June 17th gap crossing at $111.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.48. Second support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  



August cattle closed up $0.35 at $121.15. 



August cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the June 8th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $124.33. First support is the July 9th low crossing at $118.85. Second support is the June 8th low at $117.23. Third support is June's low crossing at $114.63. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.75 at $159.95. 



August feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.92 would open the door for a test of the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. First resistance is July's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.92. Second support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower due to profit taking ahead of the weekend on Friday as it consolidated  some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $219.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's gap  crossing at $177.90 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near.              



September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target.                      



October sugar closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target.       



December cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 86.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - July 26, 2021, 1:56 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!

By Jim_M - July 26, 2021, 3:39 p.m.
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How is your Dad doing?