I think most would agree that food inflation is real
Food Inflation could be caused by shortage but not always. Sometimes materials cost more but there is lots of food, thus there was no shortage to cause inflation,
However, in countries where food is a greater share of the wages earned compared to wealthy countries, then food prices can cause social unrest, what ever the reason for food inflation
Some major events and food scarcity or higher prices
The latest is the Arab spring unrest, which started in Tunisia and spread to 5 other countries. The unrest was mostly due to gov't oppression but some think food prices had a large role in the spread of the social unrest
History tells us food can cause regime change and other nasty events
The potato failure in Europe of the mid 1840 time frame, is famous for famine, starvation and food supplies being less than needed. However the French revolution of 1789-1790 had it's roots in a lack of food. I think the famous words of "let them eat cake" caused several to be executed. In 1917 the russian tsarist empire was ended and food scarcity was considered a major contributing factor which led to the revolution
With almost 1/2 of the USA in severe drought, Mexico seems to have some drought and of coarse Brazil and other SA countries suffering from drought and the loss of part of their second planting of safrina corn crop, plus unusual frost has depleted SA grain, sugar cane and coffee supplies
California will have several million acres of fallow land due to a lack of irrigation water as reserve water supplies are depleted, with much less water available for growing crops the world depends on for supply
Lake Mead is at historical low levels which will mean that irrigation water is limited for growing food crops
Irrigation wells in some parts of the corn belt are sucking air with the MNR telling farmers the supply of well water may be restricted as aquifers are depleted. Some or most aquifer water seems to be holding the usual level while others are slowly going away
So until the drought in the USA, Canada and SA is returned to normal, expect food inflation at your local grocery store. Did China suffer crop loss during their flood this yr. that killed huge numbers of hogs. More concerning is the poor countries that can not afford higher food/grain prices
Will we see social unrest in other parts of the world
You may think we are isolated from the rest of the world but if one country is starving, then an empty stomach leads to drastic action which will have repercussions for the rest of us
We all see what is happening at the southern border
Food security may manifest itself in any of a 100 possibilities in other parts of the world
Are we safe from social unrest. Will our enemies use food as a weapon to destabilize our country. Will the left and the right use food as the next political foot ball to destabilize our country??
Nobody knows but my guess is food security is fragile in many parts of the world at present and nasty things can happen
If Biden removes 30 million acres from food production in the USA over the next 10 yrs, is that a good reason to go green???
Food can be an issue many of us are not prepared to deal with. I really hope we do not have to worry about food security or what other countries may do
Not too many things more important than this Wayne!
Until we get the cool Tropical Pacific Ocean water anomalies from the natural La Nina signature to warm up and turn into warm anomalies, along with global temperatures warming again, this drought is likely to continue in those areas.
Regardless, the massive benefits from the increase in CO2 to agriculture are enormous. Each crop and plant is different but for each +5 parts per million increase in CO2, crop yields increase around 1%.
The increase from 280 ppm to over 415 ppm has increased world food production by around 27%.
The optimal level of CO2 for many plants and crops is around 900 ppm, so we are less than half of that.
In addition, global warming has also contributed towards an increase in world food production.
Many people reading that will think............that can't be. All the scientists and science tell us that CO2 is pollution and its hurting crop yields and world food production.
Not sure how many words that I used above but ignore all of them and look at this data:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
I don't care if 1 billion scientists claim that we are having a climate crisis and all these exaggerated bad things are happening. I don't care what the busted climate models..........simulations of the atmosphere going out 100 years using hand picked/subjective mathematical equations from really smart scientists convinced(after 3 decades of getting alot wrong) that they actually have great skill.
The planet is massively greening up.
It's MUCH greener by all objective scientific measurements than it was 30 year ago.
If CO2 continues higher, it WILL BE even greener in 30 years from now.
You don't need a PHD in climate science or biology to know that with extremely high confidence. You just need 2 things.
1. Access to the authentic data, like that from the link above
2. The ability to read and ability to be honest/objective
regardless of the cause (human or otherwise), a planet that is warmer, and has more co2 will mean fewer food shortages.
anyone east of kansas city can go plant a garden in your yard (instead of wasting time mowing all that grass), and you can get a very nice supply of veggies.
if you want to read about food shortages, and starvation, ...read about the year with no summer. imagine getting frost every month of the year. no garden, no crop, and millions were starving in new england.
in terms of starvation... global cooling is the big problem, not global warming.
and also Bad govt policy is just as dangerous.
btw... i think that the potato famine was partly because of weather that was too cool.
Very true bear!
There are many other, extremely complicated factors, some that oppose each other.
Ethanol and bio fuels for instance. This is worth a book worth of pages here, using food for fuel and I know this is going to be a one sided issue for many producers that make a living selling crops.
However, the democrats right now, are the ones pushing for more ethanol being blended into gasoline.
Yet its the democrats, that want to replace fossil fuels and the combustion engine which would mean no more ethanol and bio fuels as we know it.
On this topic, fossil fuels and growing food...........the link below has a wonderful discussion about a profound fact that almost nobody knows.
Another secret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019