INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 29, 2021, 8:03 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, July 29, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 380K; previous 419K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3236000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -29K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +8.5%; previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +5.4%; previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.0%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +9.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +11.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous -40.7K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 238.3K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 478.2K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 114.7)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +8.0%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2678B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +49B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, July 30, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -2%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.9%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +3.7%; previous +3.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q\% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. July Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 64.0; previous 66.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 80.5; previous 85.5)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 83.5)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.2%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 88.6)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as this year's rally appears to have stalled out for the time being. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 14,445.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,283.68.



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4267.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4416.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4267.81. Second support is June's low crossing at 4126.75.               



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-14. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.  



September T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.247 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.247. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.249.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extended gains off July's low after U.S. crude stockpiles posted strong declines as peak summer demand remains strong despite a resurgence of Covid-19. Crude inventories dropped more than expected last week to the lowest since January 2020. Oil has also been supported as a weaker dollar boosts the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $76.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.11 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $73.27. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July's high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.11. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.



September heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as supplies of distillates declined the most since April. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $2.2120 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1092 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $2.1901. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1092. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.



September unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $2.3123 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1913 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.3123. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1913. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $2.0571.  



September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.783 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.165. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.783. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at 3.572.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is July's low crossing at $92.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.52.



The September Euro was higher overnight as it extended this week's rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $117.64. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3957 would open the door for additional gains near-term.Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3788 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3957. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1. 4135. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3788. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578.



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and trading above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1006 as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1067 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0909 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1006. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1067. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0909. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0801.  

 

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off July's low and broken out above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.74. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.43 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $80.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.15. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $78.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74.



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was sharply higher overnight as it is breaking out to the topside of the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1832.70 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1750.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1832.70. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1789.10. Second support is June's low crossing at $1750.10.



September silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.723 would signal that a low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $23.825 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.723. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $26.575. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $24.515. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.825.



September copper was higher overnight following a two-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3427 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.7110 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.6275. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7110. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3427. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends this week's choppy trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would be short-term bearish and would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.        



September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $7.18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/2.

 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 7th low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.78 1/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.69 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.69 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.06 3/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If November renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $13.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $365.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes last-week's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $365.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $375.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at $348.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 


December soybean oil was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.18 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. If December resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.18. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. Third support is the June 25th low crossing at 56.66.     

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $1.80 at $105.68. 



August hogs closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.37. Second resistance is the June 17th gap crossing at $111.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.21. Second support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  



August cattle closed up $0.15 at $123.08. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the July 19th low, July's high crossing at $124.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $124.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.75. Second support is the July 9th low crossing at $118.85.  



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.58 at $160.13. 



August feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off the July 19th low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with April's high has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $158.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $163.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $158.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $155.49.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $219.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's gap crossing at $177.90 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near.             



September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.94 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                      



October sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.       



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 86.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - July 29, 2021, 2:05 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!