KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, August 11, 2021  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 734.3)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.7%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.5)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.7%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 3571.3)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.7%)

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.9%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.9%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +5.3%; previous +5.4%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +4.4%; previous +4.5%)

10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.225M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.627M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 228.87M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.291M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.744M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.832M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.3%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.168M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.045M)

Thursday, August 12, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 375K; previous 385K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -14K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2930000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -366K)

8:30 AM ET. July PPI

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1%)

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 898.4K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 436.2K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 308.3K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2727B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +13B)

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1432M)

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 155M)

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 665M)

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 3.30M)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, August 13, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +4.6%)

10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 81.3; previous 80.8)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.4)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.5)

Monday, August 16, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 43.0)

                       Employment Idx (previous 20.6)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 33.2)

                       Prices Received (previous 39.4)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,958.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,958.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,553.94.  

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4312.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4438.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4312.32.               

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-21. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-21. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes were steady to lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.075 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.086 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.086. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.075. Second support is the July 14^th low crossing at 132.300.   

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:September crude oil was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.96. Second resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $74.23. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.

September heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1228 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1228. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.

September unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2250 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level  of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2250. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.  

September Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.971 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.971. Second support is the July 28^th low crossing at 3.837.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.98.

The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.21. First support is the overnight low crossing at $117.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3831 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3906 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3906. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3834. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0982 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1177. First support is July low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0622.

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the July 23^rd low crossing at $79.32 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.62. First support is the July 23^rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.

The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 14^th low crossing at 0.090375 would mark a downside breakout of the July-August trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.091049 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.091049. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Third resistance is the May 25^th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the July 14^th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1799.40 are needed to signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken support crossing at $1754.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1799.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.

September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's sharp loss. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.033 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.033. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.088. First support is Monday's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.

September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3829 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3829. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.2435. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.    

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.         

September wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.77 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 5^th low crossing at $6.87 3/4 or above the August 4^th high crossing at $7.19 are needed to clear up near-term direction of the market. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 3/4.  

September Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the July-August symmetrical triangle. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26^th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26^th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.42 3/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.59 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the July 21^st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $369.40. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 

December soybean oil was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29^th high crossing at 65.04. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is Monday's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

October hogs closed down $0.73 at $83.87. 

October hogs closed lower on Tuessday as it extended the decline off July's high high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $83.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is today's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13. 

October cattle closed up $0.75 at $128.23. 

October cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19^th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.83. Second support is the July 19^th low crossing at $124.05.  

September Feeder cattle closed down $0.08 at $163.13. 

September feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.13. Second support is the July 19^th low crossing at $156.58.   

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extended Monday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $181.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

September cocoa closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         

October sugar closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        

December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.