For the latest Natural Gas weather, go here:
August natural gas futures were set to open Wednesday about 1.9 cents higher at around $2.807/MMBtu with overnight forecasts stable and analysts looking for cash strength and profit-taking to potentially push prices higher early in the session. Read
EIA number +78 bcf from last week. Slightly bearish as we went down a bit just after the release.
|Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN|
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
|Region||06/29/18||06/22/18||net change||implied flow||Bcf||% change||Bcf||% change|
These were the temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period that was used for the last EIA report:
These temperatures below cover the period for tomorrows EIA report It was a hot week!
Below, they are broken down into Highs/Lows for the same 7 day period:
By metmike - July 10, 2018, 2:30 p.m.
Natural gas is testing the uptrend line from the Dec 2017 lows, just above 2.6, connecting to the higher lows in Feb. just below 2.7, then the higher lows in May at 2.727.
|Natural gas 3 months|
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
By WxFollower - July 10, 2018, 8:06 p.m.
From the very long article found at the above link, this little bit is the key to today's price drop:
"Looking at the weather, overnight changes heading into Tuesday’s session showed cooler trends late next week and next weekend, and those trends continued in the midday data, dropping a few additional cooling degree days (CDD), according to NatGasWeather."
I concur with this as I, myself, noted cooling models/forecasts. The forecast I saw had notable CDD losses in the 6-10 day period, which is consistent with the bolded. Days 11+ were near flat. So, I'm confident that a cooler 6-10 day period was the main wx influence today as that was dialed in leading to new selling.
Compared to 24 hours earlier, the Euro ensemble 1-15 was warmer (mainly in 6-10 day period) while the GFS ens was cooler. The average of the two was very slightly warmer vs 24 hours earlier.
I am guessing that we are being supported ahead of a bullish EIA report tomorrow, along with the fact that we came down to test Major support........the uptrend line that goes back to the lows in December 2017.
Where do you get the European model ensemble data from?