KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, August 19, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 21.9)

                       Prices Paid (previous 69.7)

                       Employment (previous 29.2)

                       New Orders (previous 17.0)

                       Prices Received (previous 46.8)

                       Delivery Times (previous 33.3)

                       Inventories (previous -4.0)

                       Shipments (previous 24.6)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 375K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2866000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -114K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 979.4K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1217.2K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 293.1K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

                       Leading Index (previous 115.1)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0%)

10:00 AM ET. 2^nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

10:00 AM ET. 2^nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2776B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +49B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, August 20, 2021  

10:00 AM ET. July State Employment and Unemployment

N/A               U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as as the Delta-related downgrades are on the rise.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 27^th low crossing at 14,774.25 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-August trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the August 5^th high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27^th low crossing at 14,774.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,706.82.  

The September S&P 500 was was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4339.78 would signal that a short-term trend change is taking place. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4476.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4339.78. Second support is July's low crossing at 4224.00.              

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the July 20^th high crossing at 167-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20^th high crossing at 167-04. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-21. Second support is the July 13^th low crossing at 161-06.

September T-notes were higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, July's high crossing at 135.140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.150 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 135.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.150. Second support is the July 14^th low crossing at 132.300.   

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:October crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $60.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.05. Second resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $73.52. First support is May's low crossing at $60.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $58.13.

October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off the late-July high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9446 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1188 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1188. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2094. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9642. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9446.

October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.9312 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1113 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.1565. Second resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $2.2049. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9312. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.8585.

October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.722 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.999 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance resistance is August's high crossing at 4.211. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.722. Second support is the July 16^th low crossing at 3.583.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extended the rally off May's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $92.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $93.52. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $91.78.

The September Euro was lower overnight as it extended the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.67. First support is the overnight low crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extended the decline off the late-July high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 2^nd low crossing at 1.3733 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3863 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3863. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3666. Second support is the July 2^nd low crossing at 1.3733.

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 1.1100 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0997. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0801.  

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $78.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.21. Second resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $80.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at $78.29. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090822 would temper the near-term neutral to friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 0.092000 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090270 would open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090675. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1802.20 would open the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at $1835.90. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1802.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1835.90. First support is August's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.

September silver was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.445 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.559. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.445. First support is August's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.

September copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8146 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.9615. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8146.    

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56. Second support is the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4.         

September wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18 3/4 would confirm that a double top with May's high has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the February-2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.74 3/4. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $7.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.84 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.96 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.96 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 1/4.  

September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.53. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second support is the July 26^th low crossing at $8.70.   

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight weakness set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is August's low crossing at $13.08 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2.

December soybean meal was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December renews the decline off the July 21^st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $365.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $365.40. Second resistance is the July 21^st high crossing at $375.70. First support is August's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. 

December soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 64.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 64.00. Second resistance is the July 29^th high crossing at 65.04. First support is August's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

October hogs closed up $1.13 at $89.03. 

October hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $80.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $80.90. 

October cattle closed up $0.85 at $128.98. 

October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off the July 19^th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the August 6^th low crossing at $125.82. Second support is the July 19^th low crossing at $124.05.  

September Feeder cattle closed up $2.43 at $163.35. 

September feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.25. Second support is the July 19^th low crossing at $156.58.   

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $167.90 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $187.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at 26.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         

October sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        

December cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.