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Started by Jim_M - July 11, 2018, 12:49 p.m.

After seeing the price action of crude, I had to take another look at the EIA report thinking I saw an old one.  Interesting reaction, though the price drop is obviously related to something else.  

Re: Crude
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 2:42 p.m.
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Good point Jim,

For sure something else as the EIA report was pretty bullish for crude.

Oil Down After EIA Data


OLD BRIDGE, N.J. (DTN) -- Oil futures nearest to delivery traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange continued lower in late morning trade. West Texas Intermediate is trading near a two-week low despite bullish data from the Energy Information Administration showing commercial crude oil stocks declined 12.6 million bbl during the week ended July 6, more than an earlier estimate from the American Petroleum Institute showing a 6.707 million bbl inventory decline.

EIA said commercial crude oil inventories declined to a three-year, four-month low of 405.2 million bbl during the week profiled, 3% lower on the week, though still down 18.2% from year ago levels. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI contract, declined for an eighth straight week, down 2.062 million bbl to a fresh 3-1/2 year low at 25.718 million bbl. API reported a 1.952 million bbl decline at Cushing.


Gasoline inventories dropped 694,000 bbl to 239.0 million bbl, significantly less than API's expected 1.59 million bbl decline as exports jumped 487,000 bpd to a better than seven-month high of 1.186 million bpd. Implied demand slid 594,000 bpd from a near record high to 9.275 million bpd, reflecting pre-stocking in the previous week leading up to the Fourth of July holiday. Gasoline production was reported at a record high 10.699 million bpd, up 388,000 bpd.

EIA said distillate stocks rose 4.1 million bbl to 121.7 million bbl, significantly higher than API's estimate for a 1.952 million bbl build. Distillate fuel supplied to market fell 321,000 bpd to 3.805 million bpd.

Wider view of Crude(lowest stocks in over 3 years):

Gasoline ending stocks are still very high:

Heating Oil stocks are the most bullish of the 3.  The lowest for the end of June since 2005!

Re: Re: Crude
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 2:44 p.m.
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Crude 3 month chart


Crude 1 year chart below


Crude 5 year chart below


Crude 10 year chart below


Re: Re: Crude
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 2:48 p.m.
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July 10, 2018

Short-Term Energy Outlook From US Energy Information Administration:

 Forecast Highlights 

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in June, a decrease of almost $3/b from the May average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in the second half of 2018 and will average $69/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $6/b lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7/b lower in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $87/b encompasses the market expectation for October WTI prices at the 95% confidence level. 
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.89 gallon (gal) in June, down 1 cent/gal from the average in May. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in May and forecasts prices to decline gradually in the coming months to an average of $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and $2.77/gal in 2019. 
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in June, up 0.1 million b/d from the May level. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and to average 11.8 million b/d in 2019. If realized, both of these forecast levels would surpass the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
  • EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018 and to an average of 1.6 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net imports since 1958. 
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels end-of-year inventories to be unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by a rise of 0.6 million b/d in 2019. 
Re: Re: Crude
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 2:49 p.m.
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  • U.S. residential electricity price
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
  • World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
  • U.S. natural gas prices
By metmike - July 12, 2018, 11:08 a.m.
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Oil continuing lower today:

WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast July 12, 2018

By Jim_M - July 12, 2018, 12:05 p.m.
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After yesterdays collapse I wasn't expecting much strength today.  Next week heading into the EIA report might reverse the trend as the fear of another large drop in supplies might incite some buying.  

By TimNew - July 12, 2018, 12:29 p.m.
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Still trying to understand this level of selling following such a bullish EIA.    Do we have an understanding of that, or is it just some "whim of the market"?

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 1:59 p.m.
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From MarketWatch:

         The 7 reasons behind U.S. oil’s sharpest daily point drop in almost 3 years    


"The biggest weekly drop in U.S. crude supplies couldn’t halt the drop in oil prices Wednesday as traders chose to focus on expectations for higher global output.


On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported a 12.6 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended July 6. That was more than double the 4.8 million-barrel decline expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts and marked the biggest single week increase since September 2016."