Stk market and bonds
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Started by wglassfo - July 11, 2018, 5:24 p.m.

If the Fed continues to push int rates higher, and reduce their balance sheet of assets, does this mean they want more savers of capital, by offering savers an incentive

Thus the bond market should should react, as capital moves where the return is higher

I always have to stop and figure out which way bonds would go, if bond returns increase

Is this a good thing in the beginning stages of a trade war with nearly all of the western world

Not saying who is right or wrong

Just trying to look into the crystal ball

Will the Fed decide to take a more moderate 

approach until we see what happens with the trade war

I see Canada increased int rates by 25 basis points and the dollar took an immediate jump

Does the Fed want a higher dollar???

By Richard - July 11, 2018, 5:43 p.m.
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The FED wants oil to go down and thinks that a slowing economy and raising USD are the answer.

By wglassfo - July 11, 2018, 6:27 p.m.
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I haven't seen any signs of oil taking dramatic price moves but have seen gold charts that have suspicious action

Methinks the Fed is more interested in suppressing the price of gold as the amount of known gold is much smaller than oil

Several times charts have shown where large numbers of short sales of paper contracts have been dumped on the gold market

Not once but at least 3 or 4 times depending on how close your chart monitors action and what time frame you monitor

10,000 contracts in 60 seconds seems suspicious that only the Fed and/or large banks could sell that many naked shorts

It seems to me the market operates in a more orderly fashion except for these sudden large orders of short sales

I know many consider this tin foil hat stuff, but does the market just suddenly sell 10,000 short paper sales in 60 seconds, 3 or 4 times over a period of time

I can't reproduce the chart because I have no idea where it came from


Maybe this is tin hat foil stuff

Does the Fed trade enough oil to actually have an 

effect on oil price

That is a very large market to try and be a market mover

The Fed may wish for lower oil prices but how can they do any thing more than simply wish for some thing in oil to happen

By metmike - July 12, 2018, 11:04 a.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

By Richard - July 12, 2018, 8:34 p.m.
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The US Federal Reserve absolutely trys and manipulate the worlds financial markets including the Oil market. While I agree with you that the Oil market is much bigger then most other markets and more difficult to manipulate, the FED still has there hand in this market. 

Some of the tools the FED has are the manipulation of the Currency which they can do and they do. 

By raising interest rates they can push the USD higher and along with the ECB the FED conducts currency swaps. 

By raising interest rates they can slow the US economy down and a slowing economy will use loess oil at the margin.

They can have President Trump call the Saudis up and ask them to pump more oil which he has done and the Saudi's are going to do. 

They also work with GS which enters into the market to do the dirty work of the FED with things like "PUMP and DUMP". GS comes into the oil market and buys oil and pumps the price up which the gets the blackbox hedge funds into the oil market, they then dump all the oil they bought and create downside momentum in the oil market, stopping the trend followers out and getting others to short the market.

GS does this knowing that the FED is working with them. I am very sure that the FED will pump the money supply up while GS is buying the oil and then restricts the money supply as GS is dumping the oil. The two of them clearly work together to get what ever the FED wants done.

By Richard - July 14, 2018, 7:39 a.m.
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talking about things the FED can do to lower the price of oil. 

They are getting desperate but they will never stop trying.

 U.S. and Allies Consider Possible Oil-Reserve Release