US GDP Q2:18 estimate 7/11/18 @ 3.9%
2 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - July 12, 2018, 7:15 a.m.

This is from Atlanta Fed based on latest available data.  Wholesale Trade came out yesterday with a .6% build, BTW.  That's a level that would have made me very nervous in the recent past,  but it is far outpaced by sales which came in at +2.5%. Stock to sales are at a very lean 1.24.   I've never seen them this tight.   But that build is factored in to GDP as well. As producers ramp up to meet increased demand and backlog,  employment will also be affected. Watch MFG employment #'s over the next few months. We've been seeing around 20K+/month.  We may start seeing 30k+ which will result in serious wage pressure as employers compete in a tightening employee pool..  This will lead to significant tightening by the fed. We are living in interesting times.


I really should start the Week in Review back up.  I've never seen #'s like these and it's hard to convey in single reports spread out over time.  The economy is very positive in every measure I follow. 


Just a time commitment involved that I may not be able to make.  


https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf


Here's the wholesale trade.  http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485980&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Comments
By TimNew - July 12, 2018, 7:41 a.m.
Like Reply

Actual first estimate of Q2:18 comes out the 27th.  There will still be some fluctuation between now and then as data becomes available,  but we're going to come in somewhere around 4% +/- a few tenths.    


So much for the days when the pundits assured us the days of 3+% GDP are gone.

By metmike - July 12, 2018, 11:02 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tim!