Natural warming and drying
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Started by metmike - Aug. 29, 2021, 3:40 p.m.

Warming and Drying part 2 Natural Cycles, Climate see-saws and failed models

Natural cycles like the Madden Julian Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation cause regions of rising moist air and precipitation varying with regions of sinking cloudless dry air that allow intensified solar heating and modern and historical regional heatwaves and droughts.


Climate hypothesis suggesting global warming will cause wet regions to get wetter and dry regions to get drier is not supported by observations

Jim Steele



By metmike - Aug. 29, 2021, 3:41 p.m.
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This was my comment:

    Mike Maguire

        August 29, 2021 12:29 pm

The influence of cloudiness and atmospheric circulation on radiation balance and its components

“The results obtained at Koniczynka in the years 2011–2018 made it possible to analyse the variability of the components of Q* in the diurnal and annual course. Furthermore, the components of Q* were found to depend considerably on atmospheric circulation, and on cloudiness in particular.”

“The issue of trends observed in individual components of Q* has been extensively discussed in the literature. Most works concern S↓. Initially, a reduction was observed in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, connected with growing atmospheric pollution; the phenomenon was dubbed “global dimming”. In the 1980s, the trend reversed and “global brightening” began (Wild 2009). In the years 1987–2002, Europe witnessed an increase in the amount of incoming shortwave radiation, S↓, reaching 1.0% per decade (Norris and Wild 2007); then, it accelerated to 2.2% per decade in 1985–2005 (Wild et al. 2009). The trend was verified by observations carried out using satellites. In 1984–2000, the trends of S↓ and S* were 2.4 and 2.2 Wm−2 per decade, respectively (Hatzianastassiou et al. 2005), and in 1983–2015, they were 1.9 and 2.4 Wm−2decade−1 (Pfeifroth et al. 2018).”

“Moreover, the extinction of solar radiation is caused by aerosol emissions. In Europe, near-surface total mass concentration of sulphate, black carbon and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The decrease in sulphate loading leads to a warming effect of 2.0 W m−2 in Europe (Yang et al. 2019). Nevertheless, there is still a lot of air pollution in urban areas, resulting in reduced S↓, e.g. by −9.1 MJ·m−2·10 years in Kraków in 1884–2010 (Matuszko 2014), or by −1.95 MJ·m−2·10 years in Wrocław-Swojec in 1875–2004 (Bryś and Bryś 2007; Bryś 2009).
The observed substantial variability of Q* at Koniczynka is determined by cloudiness and atmospheric circulation. The solar energy feeding into the ground and atmosphere affects the functioning of the entire climate system. In nearby Toruń, a correlation between the increase in air temperature and the intensity of solar radiation, especially in the summer season was observed (Kejna and Rudzki 2021).”