KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 31, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +16.6%)
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +16.4%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +17.0%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +16.6%)
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. August Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 73.4)
10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 129.1)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 160.3)
3:00 AM ET. July Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Wednesday, September 1, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 737.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 257.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.0%
Refinance Idx (previous 3520.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
8:15 AM ET. August ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +330000)
9:45 AM ET. August US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 63.4)
10:00 AM ET. July Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 59.5)
Prices Idx (previous 85.7)
Employment Idx (previous 52.9)
Inventories (previous 48.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 64.9)
Production Idx (previous 58.4)
10:00 AM ET. July Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.1%)
Residential Construction
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 432.564M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.98M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.924M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.241M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.459M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.645M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.817M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.354M)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.4)
4:00 AM ET. August Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Thursday, September 2, 2021
7:30 AM ET. August Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -7.49%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 690.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1825.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 116K)
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -75.7B)
Exports (USD) (previous 207.7B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Imports (USD) (previous 283.4B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 353K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 2862000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (previous +5.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +1.7%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2851B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +29B)
12:00 PM ET. August Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 3, 2021
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +943K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 5.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.54)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.36%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.98%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +240K)
Private Payroll (previous +703K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. August US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 59.9)
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 64.1)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 67.0)
Prices Idx (previous 82.3)
Employment Idx (previous 53.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 63.7)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.3)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight that although bond buying by the Fed will begin to taper off sometime between now and the end of the year, an increase in interest rates appears to be nowhere insight.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,182.91 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 15,677.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,182.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,922.62.
The September S&P 500 was was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues rally into record territory and is on track to end August with its best performance over the first eight months of a calendar year since 1997.Analysts noted that since 1971, years that have seen stocks rise more than 10% through the end of August have seen a positive performance in the final four-month stretch 83% of the time. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4454.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4542.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4454.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4383.97.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-31 would open the door for a test of the August 19th high crossing at 166-06. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 163-18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 166-06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 167-04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163-18. Second support is August's low crossing at 162-17.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.018 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the August 17th high crossing at 134.195 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 133.095 would renew the decline off August's high and open the door for a possible test of the July 14th low crossing at 132.300. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is August's low crossing at 133.095. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.66 would open the door for a possible test of the July 30th high. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $66.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.66. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $66.63. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $61.74.
October heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1072. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.0549 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.1569. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.0549. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8971.
October unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.0549 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.2117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.0549. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.8726.
October Henry natural gas was sharply higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.602 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.961 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.397. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.602. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.961. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.808.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Monday's decline saw September breakout below the June-July uptrend line signaling a trend change was taking place. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $93.75. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.58. Second support is the July 3th low crossing at $91.78.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.22. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $119.19. First support is August's low crossing at $116.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.
The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3816 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.If September resumes the decline off July's high, the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3816. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is August's low crossing at 1.3602. Second support is the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 17th high crossing at 1.0997 or below the August 19th low crossing at 1.0868 would mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the likely direction of the next trending move. If September renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 1.1100 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.0997. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is August's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.79. First support is August's low crossing at $77.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.02.
The September Japanese Yen was mostly steady in subdued trading overnight while extending the July-August trading range. The steady overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above August's high crossing at 0.092000 or below August's low crossing at 0.090270 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the August 16th high crossing at 0.091665. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. First support is the August 11th low crossing at 0.090270. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $1835.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1826.50. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1835.90. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
September silver was slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.005 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $23.305 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $24.220. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.005. First support is the August 20th low crossing at $22.835. Second support is August's low crossing at $22.295.
September copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the August 13th high crossing at 4.4310 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2335 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th high crossing at 4.4310. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 4.6275. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2335. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.9615.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates above the March-July uptrend line. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $5.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.29 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.01 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.45. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.86 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.17 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.01 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the August 5th low crossing at $6.99 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.35 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $7.69. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $7.83. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.08 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.77 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the August 20th low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 5th low crossing at $8.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $9.37 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the August 20th low crossing at $8.89 1/4. Second support is the August 5th low crossing at $8.80. Third support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.57.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp sell off. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.41 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $13.79 3/4. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. First support is August's low crossing at $12.77 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $360.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $360.40. Second resistance is the August 17th high crossing at $367.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $346.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 51.98 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 64.00. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 65.04. First support is August's low crossing at 56.42. Second support is June's low crossing at 51.98.
Thanks tallpine!