gdp now forecast
9 responses | 0 likes
Started by bear - Sept. 8, 2021, 3:50 p.m.

the estimates are plunging.  

this is not a good sign.  

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2021, 4:14 p.m.
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Thanks bear!

By joj - Sept. 10, 2021, 9:12 a.m.
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It's an interesting topic.

The economic contraction due to Covid19 which was then followed by explosive growth never struck me as sustainable.  Our economy is too large to act like a startup growth stock.   I don't know if we will now overshoot to the downside or not but at some point I would expect us to settle into the "new normal" of 2-3% growth.

I'm interested in your thoughts bear.

By metmike - Sept. 10, 2021, 12:17 p.m.
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Me too.

Thanks joj!

By bear - Sept. 11, 2021, 12:44 a.m.
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this is unusual.  we have never before opened an economy from a shutdown.

but even with the supposedly big growth numbers lately,  most sectors of the economy are still not up to where they were in 2019.  

growth was getting weak anyway before covid.  we desperately need to get things back to full open and normal, covid or no covid.  failing to get back to normal will almost guarantee that we head toward a worldwide depression within a decade.

By joj - Sept. 11, 2021, 1:10 p.m.
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I agree that we need to get back to open.

Yet another reason people to get vaccinated.  

By wglassfo - Sept. 13, 2021, 2:21 p.m.
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IMHO it seems like a certain part of the population will not ever be vaccinated

No amount of mandatory vaccination threats will work

Some people are just stubborn, as in freedom to choose issues, some say the vaccine has not passed the test of time and all kind of reasons

I will give you a reason from my own family

My grandson and girl friend took to living together last summer. My grand son bought a farm with a very good house and girl friend and himself decided to take up house keeping together, in the farm house. So far they seem content and might as well get married IMHO

So then thoughts turned toward having a family. My grand son desperately wants at least one son who might want to join the family farm as the rest of us grow older and move out of the picture

Of coarse who knows he might have four girls but a son would be very welcome and then see what happens

So: Now they worry if the vaccine will have any ill effects on the new born. Thoughts of previous drugs and deformed children have them scared, literally

After  much thought and if this is the right thing to do, they are both fully vaccinated with Pfizer

I know this was a hard decision for both of them

I think our countries will never be fully vaccinated so lets accept that fact and get on with business and open up

Also: Stop the free money

11 million openings for jobs and 8 million unemployed does not bode well for our future. Something is wrong with this and needs to be fixed or the help wanted signs will become closed permanently signs -space for lease signs will follow with very few takers

Free money does everybody more harm than good, if for no other reason than  run away inflation

Maybe we should use some of this free money and encourage chip manufacturing in NA. Just a thought but golly we can't keep sending pieces of paper for goods made else where. At some time in the future the sellers may question the value of our paper

If that happens then as bear said a world wide depression could happen as everybody questions other pieces of paper from all over the world

Should we subsidize our "in country" manufacturing sector, maybe explore and develop rare material sources or?? Maybe pull out of several countries that we still have  a military presence that might be a questionable expense and use that money to subsidize start up manufacturing. Just some thoughts, you may have different ideas but what bear said is really scary and possible. We are comfortable today but golly how long will our pieces of paper have value?? We need some kind of start up process to happen today and get our GDP on solid ground, before it is too late

IMO we need to make stuff in NA. Many people are struggling and if they only knew how much worse it could become for all of us. Canada has many raw materials, the USA has manufacturing capabilities and if we are going to have deficits any way, then spend the money in some way that is useful to our economy. I know the higher cost is a barrier to made in USA but some day we may be happy to at least have some supply of stuff made in USA, and retain the value of our dollar. Maybe subsidize the higher cost to some extent to encourage buy USA. I don't have all the answers, just some thoughts but maybe if we all do some thinking we can have a plan for our future.

 if the USA currency fails, then as one poster replied there is nobody able to become the new reserve currency. Thus we all go down world wide and bear said it here for all off us to take a serious look at the situation

Maybe we can ask our elected leaders to think about where we need to be in 10 yrs from now??? I know that is a hard sell but golly, some body has to ask some questions and offer a solution even if it isn't perfect, some thing  needs to be fixed. I know that is hard to do for most of us. We are currently in a Federal election and I should do some thing myself. I will think on how to do it. I might look up their respective web sites and send an e-mail

I think we can all agree some thing needs to change and the sooner the better. We need to do some thing about a small group of socialist who have a very big voice at present

I know Biden has his Green plan and it will happen in some form or other. But we do have a chance at the ballot box and maybe use your choice wisely

I am sorry to say that Trump had his day and I think somebody else needs to step up and take us forward hopefully to a better future.

Problem as I see it, nothing will change, most voters know this, and we will experience bears prediction

By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 2:37 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne, 

Tons of different and great thoughts in that post.  

The old Wayne is back!!!

I hope that your grandson gets his son to take over the farming operations. That's some long term thinking ahead!

With regards to concerns about damage to the baby because of getting vaccinated?

The vaccine does nothing, natta, zero to a persons DNA. It is NOT gene therapy as one poster here has referred to it all year. Any side affects would be expected in the first few weeks and be temporary and not affect genetics/DNA, sperm, eggs/reproduction.

Can it affect the baby of a pregnant woman?  That's a different question but it appears risks are very tiny, if any.

What should I know about vaccines and pregnancy?

If you want to mess up your pregnancy.............GET COVID while you're pregnant, especially if you have an underlying condition.

Want to guard against that happening, especially a severe case of COVID?

Get vaccinated!!!!

By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 2:47 p.m.
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Agree strongly too that millions of job vacancies with many millions of unemployed that want to be unemployed and collect government benefits is a bad situation. 

By joj - Sept. 14, 2021, 9 a.m.
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I am inclined to agree with conservatives on the issue of excessive government handout programs.  I thought the bulk of those government benefits expired in September.  It is only one variable among many in our huge economy, but it will be interesting to see the numbers going forward from this demarcation.  

The only argument I've heard in favor of guaranteed minimum income is that instead of having to hire bureaucrats to have recipients fill out forms and show attempts at employment, the government actually would SAVE money (less bureaucracy) by just giving everyone money.  Yang, a businessman, is a champion of that policy.  Kind of like Star Trek.  Everyday you wake up and go exploring and machines do all the work.