Cat. 1 Min. Hurricane Nicholas
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Started by metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:17 a.m.

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                Tropical Storm Nicholas            

                          Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2021, 4:25 p.m.            

                                        Not major but should cause a few days of shut ins until it passes.

[Key Messages]


By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:18 a.m.
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metmike: Strengthening a tad before making landfall later today, maybe to a bare min hurricane but no damage to ng.

        Local Radar

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By MarkB - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:12 p.m.
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Looks like the track has turned a bit east in the last hour. Look out west LA.

By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:38 p.m.
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The main change in the forecast is to slow it down, which means heavier rains along the path. Close to 10 inches in southeast TX!

The latest rain forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:38 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:39 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook



By metmike - Sept. 13, 2021, 11:48 p.m.
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The NHC is calling Nicholas a min. cat. 1 hurricane this evening.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2021, 1:28 p.m.
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Nicholas is down to 45 mph and continues to weaken and slow down.

There's the outside chance that it could completely stall over LA, which would increase the rain amounts a bit there.

Scroll up for the latest data that is continuously updated.

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2021, 2:29 p.m.
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Nicholas continues to weaken and move extremely slow. The NHC  made their last advisory/discussion last night. See the graphics above for the latest.