KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 705.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 258.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3292.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 18.3)
Employment Idx (previous 12.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 14.8)
Prices Received (previous 46.0)
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.867M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.528M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.999M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.215M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.586M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.141M)
Refinery Usage (previous 81.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.954M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.866M)
Thursday, September 16, 2021
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 19.4)
Prices Paid (previous 71.2)
Employment (previous 32.6)
New Orders (previous 22.8)
Prices Received (previous 53.9)
Delivery Times (previous 26.3)
Inventories (previous -18.1)
Shipments (previous 18.9)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 310K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -35K)
Continuing Claims (previous 2783000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -22K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2923B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +52B)
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 17, 2021
10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.9)
Monday, September 20, 2021
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 75)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as stocks erase earlier gains after inflation data fell more than expected, coming in at 4.0% year-over-year in August and below 4.3% in July.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 33,741.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,151.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,151.83. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at 35,510.71. First support is today's low crossing at 33,554.62. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,741.76.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,386.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 15,708.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,386.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,119.58.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off the September 3rd high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4423.46 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of August's low crossing at 4347.75. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at 4549.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4423.46. Second support is August's high crossing at 4347.75.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-07/32's at 165-30.
September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday while extending the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 26th low crossing at 163-11 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 162-17. First resistance is the August 20th high crossing at 166-06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 163-06. Second support is August's low crossing at 162-17.
September T-notes closed up 95-pts at 134.095.
September T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the August 26th low, the August 17th high crossing at 134.195 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the July 14th low crossing at 132.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 135.140. First support is August's low crossing at 133.095. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $73.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $71.22. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.84. Second support is August's low crossing at $61.74.
October heating oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $220.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $209.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $218.48. Second resistance is the the July 30th high crossing at $220.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $209.46. Second support is August's low crossing at $189.71.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0937 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $2.2117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0937. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8726.
October Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.422 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.369. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.831. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.422.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 23rd low crossing at 91.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.74. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 93.20. First support is July's low crossing at 91.78. Second support is the June 23rd low crossing at 91.51.
The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the June 25th high crossing at 119.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.19. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at 119.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.90. Second support is August's low crossing at 116.69.
The September British Pound closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3770 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3893. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the August 27th low crossing at 1.3680. Second support is the August low crossing at 1.3602.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 17th high crossing at 1.0997 is needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.0957. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is August's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is theJuly 30th high crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the July's high crossing at 81.28. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35. Second support is August's low crossing at 77.23.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday while extending the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August high crossing at 0.092000 or below August's low crossing at 0.090270 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is August's low crossing at 0.090270. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1861.30 is the next upside target. If December extends this month's decline, the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $1836.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1861.30. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
September silver closed higher on Tuesday but failed to fill Monday's gap crossing at 23.855. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.852 signals that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 24.633 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.633. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 26.090. First support is the August-20th low crossing at 22.835. Second support is August's low crossing at 22.295.
September copper closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 462.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 446.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 462.75. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.80. Second support is August's low crossing at 396.15.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.07-cents at $5.20 1/4.
December corn closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.97 1/2. Second support is the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.13 3/4-cents at $7.00 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.21 1/2 would signal the near-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.09 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.21 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.15 1/2-cents at $7.01 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.12 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.12 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.79 1/2.Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $8.87 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's low but remain below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $9.27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $9.37 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.57. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $12.82 1/2.
November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.32 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $12.62 3/4. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $3.70 at $341.50.
December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $347.80 would signal that a low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $347.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $355.60. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $335.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00.
December soybean oil closed up 91-pts. at 56.90.
December soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 53.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.89. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 55.36. Second support is June's low crossing at $53.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.25 at $80.52.
October hogs closed lower for the seventh day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the decline off the August 30th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.31. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $91.42. First support is today's low crossing at $79.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13.
October cattle closed up $1.80 at $124.08.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $122.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $124.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.05. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96. Second support is June's low crossing at $122.90.
October Feeder cattle closed up $2.70 at $158.15.
October feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $161.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.61. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $155.98. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $181.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $191.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the November 2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.73 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 17.74. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.43 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!