"Debt Ceiling / Stocks
Started by joj - Sept. 21, 2021, 7:56 p.m.
Sept 30th deadline for raising the debt ceiling is just ahead. I will refrain from the temptation of commenting on the politics but clearly the political dysfunction has never been more vitriolic between the parties
Is the stock market anticipating trouble?
We had a nice break in 2011 as I recall. "
Something is discombobulated with your first post/thread because I deleted the requests and THEN moved it here and now, for some odd reason MarketForum does not allow comments below that thread, so please use this one.
Great topic.........thanks joj!
Sorry for the malfunction.
I tried to respond to this post, and was blocked from it.
Sorry for the confusion, it's this thread that we need to respond to. ...not the other one.
I should have deleted the other link to the other one above thats locked up, so that you would know to respond here.
There is not problem on this thread so respond away.
What debt ceiling? The way the government has been spending in the last 2 years, there is no such thing. No matter what Congress says.
The debt of many countries, are bringing our commerce to a highly questionable situation. It seems like everyone is on the verge of bankruptcy. And if one fails, especially a big one, then everyone else falls like dominoes. Not good!
"What debt ceiling? The way the government has been spending in the last 2 years, there is no such thing. No matter what Congress says."
The last 2 years? I think the problem goes back decades. The 2 major parties used to pretend to be concerned about fiscal responsibility. Not anymore.
The most unrelenting decades long trend is the ratio of debt to the size of the US economy. Probably worse in other countries like Japan.
I've been the boy who cried wolf all my adult life. I was sure things would implode 30 years ago and then along came the internet / high tech productivity explosion and we bought some time. Could an Artificial Intelligence productivity explosion bail us out again? I guess it is possible.
As for the game of Chicken being played out politically... Playing life on the edge of a cliff is ok as long as you don't go over. But if no one blinks it could be devastating.
"Two former GOP treasury secretaries held private discussions this month with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hoping to resolve an impasse over the debt limit that now threatens the global economy, according to four people aware of the conversations."
"Republicans have refusedto help Democrats approve a new debt ceiling suspension despite approving three such measures during the Trump administration while the national debt rose by roughly $8 trillion under Trump."
McConnell wants blood in my opinion. But the stock market action this morning seems to suggest that the "smart money" believes it will get resolved.
"I've been the boy who cried wolf all my adult life. I was sure things would implode 30 years ago and then along came the internet / high tech productivity explosion and we bought some time. Could an Artificial Intelligence productivity explosion bail us out again? I guess it is possible.
As for the game of Chicken being played out politically... Playing life on the edge of a cliff is ok as long as you don't go over. But if no one blinks it could be devastating. "
joj, I really like those analogies here about this and other realms! Sensationalism sells. We are always hearing "the end is near" type rhetoric about all sort of things and the end never comes but the thing that does come is...........a continuation of the predictions of the end being near, year after year, decade after decade and it always looks like we are on the edge of the cliff..............but never go off.
no, things did not implode 30 years ago. what happens long term is currency depreciation.
for a big economy like the u.s.a., it may hot happen as quickly as what it does for mexico, or brazil.
but... 40 years from now america will look a lot like argentina, with 30% inflation, and 30% unemployment.
the u.s. fed will eventually do what we see in europe, and japan. where the central banks monetize the debt.
Hasn't the FED already been monetizing the debt since the debacle of 08?
the fed has not been directly monetizing u.s. govt debt. (not on a large scale anyway).
and they have not been doing what the central banks of europe and japan are doing. where about half of all govt bonds are purchased by the central banks.
the u.s. govt bond market is still mostly a free market with market supply and demand from international investors.
for example... the euro zone central bank might print money, and use that money to buy french bonds, so as to help the govt of france fund its operations.
that is different than the u.s. fed, which prints money, to loan it to wellsfargo, so i can get a car loan.
the u.s. fed loan buying program i believe is mostly aimed at the mortgage market.
my opinion, when the housing market is doing well, i don't think they need to step in and buy mortgage bonds to help the housing market.
I do NOT think that the debt ceiling will be raising and it will impact the debt markets. Inflation according to the gov is above 5.0% and we all know the real answer is always above the gov number. The debt market is about to tank and it can NEVER be something the FED did, therefore both sides have already agreed to this and allowing the debt ceiling issue to impact the markets therefore giving the fed cover. IT has already be agree to by both sides. It will be real this time and impact the markets.
Looks like the debt ceiling disaster has been postponed till December but I still say that in the end the gov will shut down, as the Republicans will play hard ball so to speak.
You folks have me confused with debt ceiling, monetizing etc.
I thought the Dems could go it alone and raise the debt ceiling
The reason the Dems want everybody on board is they don't want to own raising the debt ceiling with Dem finger prints only on the bill
In 2022 the pubs would use the Dems penchant to spend and point to the debt ceiling by Dems only
This is politics for the 2022 elections and the pubs want blood
The Dems won't pass the debt ceiling on their own, and would risk a default rather than admit to passing the bill on their own
Then you have the 1.5 trillion and the 3.5 trillion which I suspect nobody understands and even most of congress who will vote on what ever the end result may be.
By the way Richard
You must have some oil calls coming into some value. If not now then soon I would suspect
You were correct Richard
Just took a long time