by now, i think that many of us realize there are serious problems with the official covid figures. govenors get their figures from the health dept. the health dept gets its figures from hospitals, and hospitals are committing fraud to earn more money.
i personally know of someone who died of a heart attack. had no covid symptoms. was never diagnosed with covid. but yet the hospital put down covid as cause of death on the death certificate. the family is fighting that.
it is an absolute shame that NO ONE in the media wants to investigate this issue. no one wants to shame the health dept, or hospital administrators.
so i came up with my own calculations for covid deaths.
when covid first started,... i read articles on how many people die each year... of ALL causes. and some experts had estimated that there would be 2.9 million people die in 2020 of all causes. (this is pre-covid). i will just accept their figures and go from there. at the end of 2020, there were a total of 3.2 million people who died in the u.s. of all causes.
this is 300k higher than what had been estimated. then i adjust for a few things.
for example, there are more people than normal who dies of suicide. there are more people that normal who died of drug overdoses. and more people than normal died of heart disease because they might have been afraid to go to a hospital.
so my total figure for covid deaths in the year 2020 is about 250k . (not the 375k that uncle sam will tell you).
250k out of a population of 330 million is about the same death rate as the flu of 1968, when we had about 150k flu deaths out of a population of 200 million.
yes, the flu kills people. i lost 3 great grand parents in the flu season of 1968.
"i personally know of someone who died of a heart attack. had no covid symptoms. was never diagnosed with covid. but yet the hospital put down covid as cause of death on the death certificate. the family is fighting that.
it is an absolute shame that NO ONE in the media wants to investigate this issue. no one wants to shame the health dept, or hospital administrators."
Actually bear, I DID investigate that and found that COVID deaths were UNDERreported NOT over reported as you guys keep insisting.
Do you have a data source for claiming this? I'll be glad to go back and find mine and copy it here.
"250k out of a population of 330 million is about the same death rate as the flu of 1968, when we had about 150k flu deaths out of a population of 200 million. "
1. That is not correct, bear. Your number for 250K COVID deaths is much too low based on all the authentic data. 378K is more credible number for 2020. It would be even higher in 2021 if not for the vaccine coming to the rescue(for the smart ones getting vaccinated). I hope that you're vaccinated. You are encouraged to show us credible empirical data/evidence to support your speculative number.
2. Actually, there were 100K flu deaths in 1968, not 150K as you stated. but it was a bad flu year for sure.
3. I tried to get you to follow thru with evidence of your exaggerated claims about this back in August but you never responded. Sorry to have to hold you accountable for words but this is a deadly pandemic and DIS/MISinformation like this is killing many thousands of people.........so words need data..........why I'm happily showing from both sides and giving you the opportunity to show yours.........pretty please.
4. It's very true/I agree that more people died than usual because of suicides and from not getting medical treatment and other issues that COVID caused. Maybe you are totally overlooking a huge one right now. Hospitals are filling up with unvaccinated people that are extremely sick with COVID and can't take care of people sick with other serious issues, some unrelated to COVID in smart, vaccinated people who are dying because of it.
This isn't something I (and the health care community) just made up to trick people into getting vaccinated........it's the real world out there man........ which is killing MANY people as a consequence of so many refusing to get vaccinated.
SIMON: I have to ask, are most of the COVID patients you're seeing unvaccinated?
ZINK: Oh, yeah, by far the vast majority. So our Alaska state data in our hospitalizations - 88% of people who are hospitalized in Alaska are unvaccinated individuals.
metmike: For our county, it was 98.6%:
"Dr. Kristen Solana Walkinshaw, chief of medical staff at Providence Alaska Medical Center, said patients have died while a rationed resource, such as continuous dialysis and intensive care beds, went to others. She said COVID-19 is even devastating labor and delivery.
“The place where things should be happy all the time, they’re having a really, really rough go,” she said. “Pregnant women with COVID are having terrible outcomes.”
She said she knows of pregnant moms who died of COVID-19. One, she said, had to go from delivery to the intensive care unit."
metmike: The MSM and medical community and government are not making this stuff up or exaggerating it to trick republicans into giving up their rights/freedoms............. It's the REALITY!
met mike... first of all maybe you should forget all your references to alaska and the year 2021...
my calculation was about the year 2020. i made no reference to the year 2021. i will not be able to calculate for 2021 until well after january.
and for people who want to argue that the figure is much higher, they have a basic math problem. if the death rate for 2020 is 300k higher than the (supposedly) estimate for 2019, then you will have to find some other category where the death rate is much LOWER than previous years, in order to argue that the rate for covid is higher.
i have read of some doctors that claim that 600k to 900k died of covid, but they have NOT shown where the death rate in some other category is much lower than previous years. their number do NOT add up.
and then there is the comorbidity problem.
if a person has illness A, and illness B, and illness C, and they die... it is a very SUBJECTIVE opinion to say that they died of illness A, rather than illness B or C. it is NOT an objective fact to say they died of B rather than A.
i have read these arguments before, where one doctor says that 145k people died of alzheimers.(last year). but then another doctor says, no, there were really 400k people who died of alzheimers. if you shift numbers from one category to another category, it does NOT change the overall number of people who died. and some other doctor will argue that, NO, those people actually died of heart attack, not alzheimers.
if a person has illness A, and illness B, and illness C, and covid, and they die... of course the hospital is tempted to call it covid if they get paid more money to do so.
a person would have to be very naive to think that this does not skew the numbers in favor of covid deaths being overestimated.
that is why i decided to come up with a different methodology.
of course my method assumes some things are mostly constant... like... the number of people who die of cancer is close to the trendline... the number of people who die of diabetes is close to the trendline (from previous years), etc.
so the blip up in the death rate is mostly (but not entirely) due to covid.
if you accept the official numbers, or even think that the number is actually higher,... they you have a basic math problem.
A few days ago, I found an incredibly thorough review of the whole pandemic issue.
One of the issues this presentation addressed was the treatment severely ill covid patients received. They strongly criticized the use of ventilators (often discussed on this forum). According to them, the patients in this condition should have been given certain drugs (some of them mentioned), rather than forcing air down into their lungs. In other words, the ventilators killed these patients… without the ventilator, these patients might have survived….. “malpractice”
Many of the patients were given Remdesivir, which, according to this presentation, was the wrong medication to provide.In other studies, I have read that this drug may have caused acute kidney failure in Covid patients..
The question we then have, when we read about Covid fatality numbers…How many were really killed by the virus? How many were killed by ventilators? How many were killed by inappropriate medication?
And how many of these deaths were people who came to the hospital with other ailments, but were counted as Covid victims after the flakey PCR test called them “positive”?
I just read that at one hospital they count a patient who refuses a PCR test as a “Covid Hospitalization” This mean, a person could come to the ER with a life-threatening gun shot wound, without having the virus. He refuses the PCR, and upon his death he is counted as a Covid fatality.
IMHO, the issue about ventilators is the most significant one…. Without this device, the fatality numbers could be quite different.This could make a huge difference.
Thank you for doing your calculations. There are so many questionable things happening in this pandemic... it's good to have people among us who think for themselves and point out discrepancies.
"I just read that at one hospital they count a patient who refuses a PCR test as a “Covid Hospitalization” This mean, a person could come to the ER with a life-threatening gun shot wound, without having the virus. He refuses the PCR, and upon his death he is counted as a Covid fatality."
Please don't make things up. This is not true. Show us where patients that were never even tested for COVID that did not have COVID were counted as COVID fatalities.
metmike, there seems to be plenty of evidence that the following procedure is used:
A patient is admitted to the ER (with a broken arm, or an appendicitis, or whatever)… he is then given the PCR test. Should the test be positive, he is then moved to the Covid Unit [they do keep Covid patients separate from other patients]…. he is then counted as a “Covid Hospitalization”
The one I mentioned, goes one step further… if you refuse a PCR test, you are also counted as “positive” Would it be too difficult, to have 3 categories in their bookkeeping…”positive”, “negative’, “status not available”?
I would have never imagined that such sloppy, unscientific procedures are being used, in a serious matter such as the pandemic
Please read my post carefully… I did not say that the guy with the gun shot would actually happened. I said “This means, a person could come to the ER with a life-threatening gun shot wound….”.This was my personal interpretation of this procedure.
But then, this is nothing new. At the very beginning of the pandemic, we already saw the document that ordered hospitals to count every death as a coviddeath.
None of us know the truth about any of these statistics and graphs we are shown so often.
For some very strange reason, truth and transparency were abandoned from the very beginning of this pandemic… and it continues today, with the almost desperate effort to censor any news that would shed a bad light on the mRNA jab.
I know what you stated Gunter..... show the proof of your made up stuff please!
How blatantly dishonest of you. This has nothing to do with hospitals, let alone the United States or counting anybody as COVID positive.
This is a lady in Alberta Canada talking about the school system and individuals staying home with an illness being included as part of the outbreak......not as COVID positive but as part of an outbreak in the school system(that also includes COVID cases) whether these people have been diagnosed with COVID or not.
Do you think that I am some sort of idiot and won't be able to understand what she's saying or are you the one that somehow doesn't understand the English language?
to get back to the original post here...
it is normal that someone sees a potential problem with a "model" and calculations, and offers a different model, and different calculations. that IS a part of how science works. it is very naive to call it disinformation. if a person has a problem with the methodology, please show where there are potential problems with the math. i know that my model is a bit too simplistic. but... my calculation is better than the official numbers. the math just simply does not hold up for people who want to defend the official numbers, or even higher calculations.
by the way... yes, i a teach science class. i helped to develop a science class for the local college that looks at methodology, and how the idea of methodology evolves thru history.
the idea that there is one way to think about the "science" of an issue is very short sighted.
and yes, it is normal that a person who disagrees with someone else's model/calculations will say... you are not being scientific.
sorry, i have not been around lately to address anything... other things occupied my time.
Another look, very well researched:
Models schodels. I've been using dozens of weather models every day for the past 39 years for a living. We could not predict the weather more than a couple of days out without them.
Climate models are a different deal and are flawed.
With regards to COVID and the vaccine........the most important thing is the empirical data and observations....NOT models.
It's extraordinarily compelling:
That doesn't mean there aren't other treatments and aren't other factors.
Best Treatments for COVID!
12 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 26, 2021, 9:28 p.m.
By metmike - Sept. 26, 2021, 8:55 p.m.
sorry kris, but that article is very poor science, and totally ignores the issue of comorbidity. it pretends that it is easy to establish that yes, this patient died of cause X, not Y, and not Z. this is incredibly Naive.
even if we ignore covid, i have seen doctors argue about this problem with other diseases. if a person has alzheimers, and heart disease, and the flu, and they die... which did they die of? it is NOT a matter of fact to say they died of X rather than Y, or Z. it is a matter of OPINION.
the official number for alzheimers is maybe 140k per year. but some doctors claim the number is much higher. but that just shifts it from one category to another. then another doctor will say, no , those people did Not die of alzheimers, they actually died of heart disease.
your article totally ignores this problem.
and you site evidence from china.
my argument had Nothing to do with china. the fraud in the numbers is unique to the u.s.a. it has nothing to do with china.
in a country with socialized medicine, they have no financial reason to call it a covid death rather than a alzheimers death.
and the issue of saying that some deaths are "unreported" is sited for many diseases every year.
None of this changes the total death numbers. and none of it addresses my calculation.
That makes for an interesting discussion on what the protocol is for patients that die who have several contributing causes.
...not just COVID.
I’ll try to provide more on that this week. Am away from home the rest of the day.