From Natural Gas Intelligence:

Production Still Keeping Bears in Control as August Natural Gas Called Lower

     8:58 AM    

August natural gas futures were set to open slightly lower Friday at around $2.793/MMBtu, with production and forecasts showing a let-up in heat across key markets that were keeping bears in control despite storage deficits

From yesterday:

EIA Storage Build Lighter Than Surveys, But Natural Gas Futures Market Not Impressed

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report  +51

 for week ending July 6, 2018   |  Released: July 12, 2018 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 19, 2018 

These temperatures below cover the period for this last EIA report  It was a hot week! The next one will not be so hot.

Below, they are broken down into Highs/Lows for the same 7 day period:

Natural gas is BREAKING the uptrend line from the Dec 2017 lows, just above 2.6,  connecting to the higher lows in Feb. just below 2.7, then the higher lows in May at 2.727.

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below

Naturalgas10years below

July 10, 2018

Short-Term Energy Outlook From US Energy Information Administration:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

• U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.3 Bcf/d in 2018, which would establish a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise by an additional 3.1 Bcf/d in 2019 to 84.5 Bcf/d.
• The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.97/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in June. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.04/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $2.37/MMBtu to $3.59/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for October Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
• EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. In this outlook, coal's forecast share of electricity generation falls from 30% in 2017 to 28% in 2018 and to 27% in 2019. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly less than that share in 2018 and in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly less than that share in 2018 and in 2019.
• After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by 1.8% in 2018 and decrease by 0.5% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

                By metmike - July 12, 2018, 5:20 p.m.            

After the bullish EIA number was out, the market did some buy the rumor, sell the fact type action as next weeks number is not going to be so bullish and we are trading the future now.

The 12z GFS came out with much warmer maps for the 10-12 day period, mainly from slowing down the same cold front on previous runs and allowing heat to surge in for several days ahead of it.  This allowed ng to pop back up near its highs from just after the EIA number came out, th3n we finished weak..........as the overall pattern, especially noted in the 6-10/8-14 day has significant cooling in the Midwest.....despite the 12z GFS outlier solution of the 3 day heat surge during that period.

From Natural Gas Intelligence after the close:   

Lean EIA Build Can’t Spark Natural Gas Futures Rally; SoCal Spot Strengthens

                       Natural gas futures pulled back Thursday as weekly government storage data came in tighter than surveys but not enough to