South America crops/weather October
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Started by metmike - Oct. 5, 2021, 10:03 p.m.


Farm Policy@FarmPolicy

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1/ #Argentina: Showers provided timely moisture for winter grains in Buenos Aires, while heavier rain fell in the northeastern #cotton belt.  According to the gov't of Argentina, as of Sept. 30, #corn was 17 percent planted versus 19 percent last year. https://bit.ly/2ZQNXeJ

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2/ #Wheat development ranged from vegetative in the south to filling in northern farming areas, many of which need moisture.

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By metmike - Oct. 5, 2021, 10:04 p.m.
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Farm Policy@FarmPolicy

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1/ Showers increased in coverage, providing timely moisture for #soybeans and other main-season summer crops in key production areas of central and southern #Brazil. https://bit.ly/2ZQNXeJ

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By metmike - Oct. 5, 2021, 10:07 p.m.
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30 day precip % of average:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif

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Precip % average the last 90 days below

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif

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Rains the next 16 days from the just out 18z GFS ensemble mean(American model)

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

By cutworm - Oct. 5, 2021, 10:22 p.m.
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By cutworm - Oct. 6, 2021, 8:28 a.m.
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Thank you Mike for all the work you do to bring us the weather!

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 11:07 a.m.
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YW cutworm...........and thank you for passing on Eric's wonderful weather analysis.

You'll love the stuff below!!!

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 11:51 a.m.
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Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=ARG&lang=en

FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Argentina -

Maize=Corn

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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/#62953

@kannbwx

#Argentina's #soybeans are most concentrated in Cordoba, Santa Fe & Buenos Aires. The 2020/21 crop is pegged @ ~50 mln tonnes (1.84 bln bu). That is roughly the estimated 2020 crop of the U.S. I-states plus Minnesota. Speaking of, they fit quite nicely in Argentina's grain belt.

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By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 11:53 a.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 11:57 a.m.
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https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/br_cropprod.aspx

  • https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

                                        

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 11:58 a.m.
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/#62125

@kannbwx Just for fun, I dragged Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio inside of Mato Grosso, #Brazil. Look how huge it is. Plenty of room to spare!! 


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By metmike - Oct. 6, 2021, 12:03 p.m.
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This data comes from the GFS/US model. 

It's constantly updated every day.

http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php










                               

                                    

                                    


By metmike - Oct. 7, 2021, 5:18 p.m.
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Latest 16 days total precip from the 12z GFS Ensemble mean.

It's pretty early in the planting season.

Huge rains for coffeeland.

By metmike - Oct. 11, 2021, 4:20 p.m.
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Pretty widespread rains for South America and Brazil. These are the totals from the last 12z GFS ensemble mean.   Bearish for the beans.

            

By metmike - Oct. 12, 2021, 4:47 p.m.
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BEARISH weather for South America and bearish USDA report today.

By metmike - Oct. 13, 2021, 8:16 p.m.
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Still bearish  weather in SA! 16 day rain totals from the 12z GFS ensemble mean.

By metmike - Oct. 18, 2021, 7:14 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Planting of #soybeans in Mato Grosso, #Brazil, is favorably quick so far. As of Friday, 45% had been planted, above last year's 8% and avg 26%. Planting had progressed at a similarly fast pace in 2018 (for 18/19 crop). 2019 was also fast, but 2020 started very slow.

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By metmike - Oct. 18, 2021, 7:17 p.m.
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Total 16 day rains from the 12z GFS Ensemble. A bit dry in Argentina and maybe far southern Brazil but robust in most of Brazil.

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2021, 5:07 p.m.
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Still pretty good rains in Brazil. A bit on the lighter side in Argentina(and extreme far south Brazil) but no blocking pattern to shut down rains. 

12z GFS Ens for 16 day total rains below: