EIA: Renewables no longer expected to be #1 by 2050
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Started by metmike - Oct. 7, 2021, 6:33 p.m.


Today’s release of the 2021 International Energy Outlook no longer forecasts renewables taking the lead before 2050…

Previous forecast:

By metmike - Oct. 7, 2021, 6:36 p.m.
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As an “added bonus” EIA now forecasts that coal consumption for energy will exceed its alleged 2014 peak by 2043…



And they continue to forecast that fossil fuels will continue to be the world’s dominant source of primary energy for many decades to come…


By metmike - Oct. 7, 2021, 6:46 p.m.
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This is the report from 2 years ago by the EIA.........my how things can change quickly when realities sink in.

IEA Forecast: Solar to surge past coal & natural gas by 2040.(no way)


Figure 1.  If the world commits economic suicide (Sustainable Development 2040), we can save the planet.




Figure 2.  But, under the Stated Policies Scenario, we’ll be burning nearly three times as much natural gas and twice as much coal in 2040 that we were at the dawn of the 21st century… Excellent!


“If ifs and buts were candy and nuts,” we’d save the planet.  Fortunately, the planet doesn’t need saving.  The planet doesn’t even notice us.


There is little doubt that solar PV installed capacity will continue to grow and could surpass coal and natural gas by mid-century.  That said, the solar PV electricity output is unlikely to even catch coal by 2050.  Coal-fired and natural gas combined cycle power plants are capable of delivering 85-90% of their name plate capacity.  Solar PV generally maxes out below 30%.  2,100 GW of coal-fired power plants, operating at 50% of capacity, will deliver more electricity than 3,100 GW of solar PV, operating at 30% of capacity.


Natural gas will continue to kick @$$…


At least in these tangentially United States.