KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 11, 2021
9:30 AM ET. G24 Ministers and Governors Meeting
10:00 AM ET. September Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 110.37)
ETI, Y/Y%
Tuesday, October 12, 2021
6:00 AM ET. September NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 100.1)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook published
10:00 AM ET. August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:30 AM ET. IMF Global Financial Stability Report published
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Wednesday, October 13, 2021
7:00 AM ET. IMF Fiscal Monitor published
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
8:15 AM ET. World Bank President David Malpass' Annual Meetings press briefing
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +4%)
10:00 AM ET. September Online Help Wanted Index
2:00 PM ET. September Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
Thursday, October 14, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims, Net Chg
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims, Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. September PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg
1:00 PM ET. IMF Debate on the Global Economy
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 15, 2021
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 34.3)
Employment Idx (previous 20.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 33.7)
Prices Received (previous 47.8)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1265.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1041.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.2K)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 71.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,157.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13,825.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,997.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,157.08. First support is the 25% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 14,474.38. Second support is the 38% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13,825.88.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the October 1st low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4425.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 4214.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4425.11. Second resistance is the September 27th high crossing at 4472.00. First support is July's low crossing at 4214.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 42101.63.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off September's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 155-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 160-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-30. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 156-15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 155-23.
December T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's, the 87% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 130.207 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.066 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.066. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.306. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 130.207. Second support is March's low crossing at 130.010.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was higher overnight and crossed the psychological $80 per barrel level for the first time since November 2014 as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $81.72. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.52.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.7919 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3130 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.5295. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.7919. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4143. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.3130.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1991 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.4085. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 281.81. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.2847. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1991.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.481 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November resumes this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 6.671 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 6.466. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 6.671. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.481. Second support is the September 21st low crossing at 4.766.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to form a small symmetrical triangle. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $94.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $94.52. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $94.82. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $93.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.59.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $114.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $116.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.84. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $115.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $114.56.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3646 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3646. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3742. First support is the September 29thlow crossing at 1.3412. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 1.0853 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, March's low crossing at 1.0654 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.0853. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0896. First support is the September 30th low crossing at 1.0693. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0654.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 30th high crossing at $80.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.03 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $80.34. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 80.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.03. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $78.27.
The December Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the November-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.087675 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090320 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090320. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090785. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.088505. Second support is the November-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.087675.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1780.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $1677.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1780.10. Second resistance is the September 14th high crossing at $1810.60. First support is the September 29th low crossing at $1721.10. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
December silver was steady to lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.484 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $21.120 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.484. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $24.000. First support is the September 29th low crossing at $21.410. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $21.120.
December copper was higher overnight as it extends its rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 4.4690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2167 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.3510. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.4715. First support is September's low crossing at 4.0160. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.9615.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the September 30th high crossing at $5.48 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $5.48 1/2. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First support is the September 21st low crossing at $5.12 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $4.97 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.22 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $7.86 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.63 1/2. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.27 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.22 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.19 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $7.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.69. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.36 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.19 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends last-Wednesday's upside breakout of the July-October trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.08 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.53. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.08 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.29 3/4. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.67 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.97 1/2. If November resumes the decline off August's high, March's low crossing at $11.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.67 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.97 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $12.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.29 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $307.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $333.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $333.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $344.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $318.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $307.30.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the August 16th high crossing at 64.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 63.08. Second resistance is the August 16th high crossing at 64.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.32. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.18.
Thanks tallpine!