U.S. ending stocks for corn and soybeans are seen increasing over last month's estimates, largely based on the Sep. 1 stocks data published Sep. 30. Soybeans could get back into the 300 mbu range, while wheat could dip below 600 mbu.
World ending stocks for #corn and #soybeans land well above estimates, #wheat well below. USA and China's corn stocks rose, USA's soy stocks rose, and multiple regions saw a trim in wheat stocks. China 21/22 corn/soy imports unch at 26 mmt/101 mmt.
Actually, this yield would be sandwiched between 2017 and 2018 for the top three yields of all time. 2017- 176.6 2021- 176.5 2018- 176.4 Will this crop ultimately end up better than 2017? Or worse than 2018? One or the other is bound to happen.
U.S. #corn yield is estimated at 176.5 bu/acre, close to expectations and just shy of 2017's high of 176.6. The increase in Iowa and reduction in Illinois were likely expected. Mixed adjustments in other states.
More increases than reductions led to a boost in U.S. #soybean yield to 51.5 bu/acre, better than last year's 51 but off 2016's high of 51.9. Records or tied records are seen in most top producing states.
2021/22 stocks-to-use for U.S. #soybeans is seen at 7.3%, about the same as in 2016/17 but higher than in any of the 9 years prior to that. A bigger 2020 crop boosted 20/21 s/u to 5.7%. It was predicted at 2.6% earlier in the year - about tied with 13/14 for lowest ever.
2021/22 U.S. #corn stocks-to-use at 10.1% is lighter than in most recent years but up from 20/21's 8.3%, an eight-year low. The average from 14/15 through 19/20 was 14.1%, with a low of 12.6% and a high of 15.7%.
Now I'm labeling the mixed cases, which include 2019 and 2017. Both corn & soy yields are more likely than not to be higher in the end when Oct was higher than Sep, and Sep was higher than Aug (what happened this year). USDA was closest to final on both yields in October 2003.
In the last 28 years, final U.S. #corn yield ended higher than in October 15 times, 18 times for #soybeans. 6 times both corn and soy yield were lower in the end, 12 times they were both higher, and 10 times they were mixed. (cont. below)