Japanese YEN, daily Tri-Star candlestick pattern, potential bottom
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Started by hayman - Oct. 20, 2021, 6:09 p.m.

Candlestick pattern Tri-Star, 3 doji stars in sequence, especially in over stretched price extremities. Yen at nearly 4 year lows, bullish divergences on a variety of oscillators.  Getting media attention with new lows yesterday and today, full (Hunter's) moon.  Bang on target timing cycle low.  MexPeso solid line for comparison, Peso has made a move higher the past week, generally leading the Yen by about 2 weeks at major inflection points.  Currently long from yesterday with a full Yen futures and additional (half size) mini Yen future (December) from today.

By kris - Oct. 20, 2021, 7:09 p.m.
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Great observations, great analysis, seems ripe for the plucking.

May your trades be profitable Sir !

By kris - Oct. 20, 2021, 8 p.m.
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Just wanted to add my "2 cents", odds are definitely in your favor Sir !

By hayman - Oct. 20, 2021, 8:30 p.m.
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Thanks for the commentary and technical corroboration, Sir.  And you threw in way more than a couple of cents there, Buddy.  Looks like you tossed a couple of 'grand' on the felt table here at the MetMike Trading Casino Forum!  Soon to be admission only with proof of VAX status,    

And just today! What a sign!   

Mount Aso, one of the largest volcano in world, erupts in Kyushu, Japan!! (October 20, 2021)


By kris - Oct. 22, 2021, 2:23 p.m.
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looking good ?

By kris - Oct. 22, 2021, 2:24 p.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 22, 2021, 6:09 p.m.
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Thanks much with mucho gratitude for helping to educate us. 

Getting it straight from the horses mouth and somebody skilled at interpreting and using it is always the best. 

By kris - Oct. 22, 2021, 7:01 p.m.
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"It's not personal Mike, it's strictly business"

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2021, 8:05 p.m.
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Hope you didn't mind me having some fun that wasn't meant to make a statement of any kind but just liven up the place with somebody that has a good sense of humor. ....making a  play on a word that many people are not familiar with. 

I appreciate you sharing your business with us.

By kris - Oct. 22, 2021, 8:38 p.m.
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I'm trying to do the same Mike: "liven up the place" a bit. 

Sure appreciate your (reciprocal) sense of humor, much appreciated and somewhat of a lost art here and there...

Wishing for a  "fantabulous" weekend to you and yours and all who visit the forum !

By kris - Oct. 25, 2021, 8:12 a.m.
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From the early ABC low we are currently at the 200 extension. 

Interesting series of 50% retracements :

By tjc - Oct. 25, 2021, 8:47 p.m.
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DID everyone buy today?  3 day rule--a market will often test its high/low  and present a sell/buy of a 'perceived' high/low three days thereafter.

Longer today at 87915 and 87815 after buying oct 20.

By kris - Oct. 26, 2021, 9:43 a.m.
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Possible scenario:

By kris - Oct. 27, 2021, 12:17 p.m.
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"I love it when a plan comes together"

By kris - Oct. 27, 2021, 10:32 p.m.
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IF this turns into a wave 3, then this current move up is wave1 of 3 and should exceed the previous high (8823) at the 423 extension from the low ABC at 8751

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2021, 11:24 p.m.
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Thanks kris!

By kris - Oct. 31, 2021, 8:01 a.m.
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We did exceed the previous high @ 8823 but got a sharp reaction right after, the wave count in the hourly chart above is out the window but all is not lost (yet), we must hold above the previous reaction low @ 8751 if we want a possible wave three to develop. 

Back to a view of the daily:

By kris - Nov. 2, 2021, 4:58 p.m.
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IF the 786 retrace low doesn't hold (green arrow) then the only saving grace for longs would be a double bottom ...

By kris - Nov. 4, 2021, 5:02 p.m.
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Hourly chart shows another "save" at a slightly higher 786 retracement than the previous one. 

The thrusts out of those 786 levels are rather weak (so far), future will tell if we can clear the previous highs with a determined up thrust ....

By kris - Nov. 5, 2021, 5:07 p.m.
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Getting closer to the previous high, waiting for follow through ?

By kris - Nov. 5, 2021, 5:37 p.m.
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Just wanted to throw a daily chart up to show today was the highest volume day since the 10/20 low, encouraging for follow through to the upside maybe ?

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2021, 7:07 p.m.
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Thanks much kris.

Potential upside break out?

I know little about currency trading though. 

By kris - Nov. 5, 2021, 10:52 p.m.
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Much obliged Sir and truth be told: I don't know anything about currency trading ...

If Hayman hadn't put up a chart I would have never looked into it. I am always the student however and so I decided to delve into it and am glad I did.

On this JPY chart I just was going to use the same stuff I use on the indexes. Turned out well since I found it to be no different, laws of nature and what have you (Fibonacci).

I am not a "system" trader as that is being defined, my style is totally discretionary; number 1 priority is finding entry points that carry little risk. No one (I hope) wants to be in a losing trade for it will mess with your mind over and above what trading in itself already does ;-)  

Therefore my goal is to be wrong right away :

Mr. Corleone is a man who insists on hearing bad news immediately.


Through the use of inflection points I know whether or not the trade is good or bad and I have found several during my study of these JPY charts but no: I did not trade any of it. 

Just wanted to maybe inspire and offer some insight to those who are actively trading the JPY.

To your question "possible breakout": I try not to prognosticate too much but if I were in this market my confidence level would tilt slightly in favor of a breakout. That being said: there is very little structure in this chart (except for intraday) and until we break the previous high we don't know if a wave 1 has started or not. 

Y'all enjoy yer weekend !

By kris - Nov. 10, 2021, 7:40 a.m.
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We have cleared the previous highs (yay!) and reached the terminal 423 extension from the 11/04 ABC low.

Currently retracing from that high, the chart shows 3 possible inflection points where the uptrend could resume.

By kris - Nov. 13, 2021, 8:28 a.m.
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We reached a high on 11/09 at the 423.6 terminal extension from the previous ABC low.

From that ABC high we went down swiftly to another 423.6 terminal extension low coinciding with a 786 retracement from the entire move up, close to the low from 10/20

Will it hold? Time will tell ....

By metmike - Nov. 13, 2021, 12:16 p.m.
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Thanks kris!

By kris - Nov. 17, 2021, 8:11 p.m.
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Last stand:

By metmike - Nov. 17, 2021, 8:21 p.m.
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Lookes like a downside breakout turned into a potential downside fake out.