Hey mm

 I was out in the Lancaster PA area yesterday where the map indicates a mix of :

-Near Peak

-Peak

-Past peak

 My observation would classify it more like :

-Dull Peak 

-Still a whole lot of green Peak

-Aint gonna happen this year in a spectacular fashion Peak

  Maybe MTP can  send us some pics

I hadnt thought of taking pics..

    John

Thanks very much John.

Very profound point too.

I've found what you said to be the case in MANY years for this and other areas. 

Alot of it depends on the weather.

1. Before the color changing season.

2. Especially during the season in many cases.

I studied it several years ago and will have to dig up some great articles about it but remember that the best colors occur during Falls that maximize tons of sunny, pleasant days and clear cool nights WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE!.

An early frost or freeze will immediately kill the leaves and turn them brown before the complete transition that maximizes the color takes place.

An early heavy snow, though rare will also result in the weight of the snow, prematurely taking them down.

Also, a very heavy rain and or an extremely high wind event when the leaves are approaching maximum color, will take out so many leaves that it never reaches that pre event peak potential.

There seemed to be some disagreement on growing season weather. I remember some articles stating that  a drought would cause a really bad show but remember just the opposite. 

Let me look again. There's probably new insight to be had again.

Here's your explanation John!

Vibrancy of autumn leaves an indicator of summer’s rainfall

https://www.smliv.com/outdoors/vibrancy-of-autumn-leaves-an-indicator-of-summers-rainfall/

"The drier areas should have the best fall color, while the wetter areas will be less vibrant.” 

Mathews contends that the formation of higher levels of yellow, orange and red pigments in the leaves correlates with dry weather throughout the year. The drier the climate, the more brilliant the fall leaves tend to be, she said."

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Too much rain/too wet this year in Lancaster for optimal colors! Been looking pretty bad here too in sw. Indiana.

Here's an article that suggests the exact opposite. Dry weather, according to this source is BAD for leaf changing.

  Wow..........who knew that there was 2 sides to leaf changing opinions.

I'm with the side that claims drier is better, unless its a mega drought that causes the trees to prematurely go dormant for survival before the growing season is over.

How dry weather affects Fall Foliage

https://www.mytwintiers.com/news-cat/local-news/how-dry-weather-affects-fall-foliage/

"The impacts of dry weather on foliage can be as light as “less vibrant colors” and on the other end of the spectrum can cause leaves to fall off trees before changing colors. The latter would be quite sad for the hills in the Twin Tiers."

 They can't politicize this, can they Mike??

 Hey thanks  for showing us those articles. Seems every year these questions come up and it looks as tho that will continue.

  John

Thank YOU John for engaging with a wonderful point about something I love and I forget about some of the elements involved which makes me now more confident why the leaf color stinks this year also here in sw Indiana.

Anybody else have reports?