Excessive Rainfall threat..........outside of main Cornbelt.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Not much Severe Storm Risk with the storms.   Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Monday......much cooler air in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest today sinks south.

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!

Heat and high humidity COMBINED .....feels like temperature!

Highs days 3-7............Pleasant Midwest to East Coast........intense heat in S.Plains.

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Getting back down closer to average in the Midwest to East/Coast!

 Heat backs up to the West! Sizzling in the S.Plains.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Midwest fronts are where the action will be!

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture....................from satellite in geostationary orbit. More on geostationary orbit later.......today:

Rains the past 24 hours.  Illinois got the most!     

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Rains over the last week, 2 weeks, month and 2 months compared to normal.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry.

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet!

Drought has worsened in those areas(KS/AR should be getting some relief, OK/TX will get worse yet):

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

The low skill, longer range CFS model, pleasant/cool north, blazing heat south and west...........at  least that what this model shows today. 

Mixed on precip. 

Precip below:

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles going out 2 weeks:

Today: Much cooler N.Plains, still hot east and West.

In 5+ days:

Hot West/S.Plains, Cool Midwest to East.

In 10+ days   Hot West to S.Plains cool Midwest.

Day 15  Hot West, comfortable East.

Same questions as yesterday:

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this act to keep the trough from deepening?

Just less than half of the members have this idea.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

we are having a booming thunder storm here in valley forge pa! the clouds are low and the lightning is striking!

huge rain came cross Ill yesterday. disappeared before it go here......we are to the point of hurting crops now. rain chances for a couple more days but this has been a tough stretch of 90's and no rain

MIke,

Thanks for a great idea on a trivia question................about lightning.

mcfarm,

I saw that. We got extraordinarily lucky, here in far sw.Indiana, just 1 county east of Illinois. I measured .75, most from showers in the very early morning that dried up and curved south.

Looking at the NWS amount(.35) and radar total this morning, I thought that the rain gauge would only show half that. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/indiana/weather-radar-24hr

My brother lives in Chicago,penna gets Ill weather two days later!

"My brother lives in Chicago,penna gets Ill weather two days later!"

So here's your forecast for Tuesday Mike(-:

Chicago weather today:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=238&y=102&site=lot&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=238&map_y=102#.W0t7On8nY3E

• Today
  
  
  
  Mostly Sunny
  High: 85 °F
  
  

Detailed Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Philadelphia weather in 2 days:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=173&y=117&site=phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=173&map_y=117#.W0t8QX8

Tuesday

Heavy Rain

High: 89 °F

• Tuesday
  Night
  

Oh Oh................looks like that rule of thumb doesn't always work out so well. This case...........3 days later? Some cases a day later. In some cases........... the Chicago weather never gets therer but the weather does generally move from west to east which is your good point.

Mike we got from .4- 2.0 in Moultrie county

Thanks pll!

Decent rain for you.

The latest 12z Canadian ensembles has some pretty strong agreement on the trough in the Northeast which is even deeper and cooler on this run. The heat ridge in the Southwest to S.Plains has enjoyed near universal agreement for many runs in a row by almost all the models. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 30, 2018 12UTC

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

This last run of the 12z GFS ensemble mean average shows the same thing.

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif

Individual ensemble member solutions for 12z GFS run are below:

The NWS extended forecasts are below.

 Cool Midwest/East, hot West to S.Plains.  Rains ample..........bearish.

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

Precipitation Probability