Interesting and Unexpected Atl Fed Forecast of GDP:Q4
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Started by TimNew - Nov. 10, 2021, 9:06 a.m.

We've seen the first GDP report for Q3, 2 more to come.  In the 2+% range.  Somewhat dissapointing.

BUT!!    1st estimates for Q4 are at an astounding 8.5, influenced largely by the stellar ISM reports (MFG and Service).  Still early,  but not at all what I expected.

It'll be interesting to see what sort of revisions we'll see for Q3.

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By metmike - Nov. 11, 2021, 8:36 p.m.
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Thanks much Tim for sharing this data. 

I almost missed it earlier. This really is astounding!!!

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2021, 8:39 p.m.
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Going along with that news is another almost equally astounding fact........that we already knew from living in the real world. 

U.S. consumer prices spiked 6.2 percent in past year, highest inflation rate since 1990

WASHINGTON (AP) — Prices for U.S. consumers jumped 6.2 percent in October compared with a year earlier as surging costs for food, gas and housing left Americans grappling with the highest inflation rate since 1990.

The year-over-year increase in the consumer price index exceeded the 5.4 percent rise in September, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. From September to October, prices jumped 0.9 percent, the highest month-over-month increase since June.

Inflation is eroding the strong gains in wages and salaries that have flowed to America’s workers in recent months, creating political headaches for the Biden administration and congressional Democrats and intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve as it considers how fast to withdraw its efforts to boost the economy.

Driving the price spikes are persistent supply shortages resulting from robust consumer demand and COVID-related factory shutdowns coming out of the pandemic recession. Ports across the world have become bottlenecked. America’s employers, facing labor shortages, have also been handing out sizable pay increases, and many of them have raised prices to offset their higher labor costs, thereby contributing to inflation.

The result has been accelerating prices for a broad range of consumer goods, from food, heating oil and patio furniture to paints, chemicals and window blinds. After initially affecting mainly goods in pandemic-disrupted industries, surging inflation has broadened into the many services that Americans spend money on, notably for restaurant meals, rental apartments and medical services, which jumped 0.5 percent in October.

Job gains and pay raises have been much healthier during the pandemic recovery than they were after the Great Recession roughly a decade ago. But in contrast to the years that followed that downturn, when inflation was low, rising prices are diminishing Americans’ confidence in the economy, surveys have found.

In October, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices rose 0.6 percent from September. Core prices are now up 4.6 percent compared with a year ago.

Energy costs soared 4.8 percent just from September to October, with gasoline, natural gas and heating oil surging for the same reason that many other commodities have grown more expensive: Demand has risen sharply as Americans are driving and flying more, but supplies haven’t kept up.

In the past year, energy costs have jumped a whopping 30 percent, with gasoline soaring nearly 50 percent. Natural gas prices are also soaring, and so is heating oil. The Energy Information Administration forecasts that these increases will bite hard this winter, with Americans expected to spend 30 percent more on natural gas and 43 percent more on heating oil.

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2021, 8:41 p.m.
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Heating bills set to soar as inflation hits energy prices

NEW YORK (AP) — Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else.

With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see jumps of up to 54% for their heating bills compared to last winter.

The sharpest increases are likely for homes that use propane, but others are also likely to see big increases. Homes that use natural gas, which make up nearly half of all U.S. households, may spend $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago. Homes using heating oil could see a 43% increase, and those heated by electricity could see a more modest 6% increase.

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2021, 8:53 p.m.
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You can blame the push for fake green energy (solar/wind) at the expense of fossil fuels for much of this, especially globally.

We need fossil fuels.  Alternative/renewable energy is just fine for applications where they make sense. But the principles of physics and chemistry that rule the dynamics of energy production and use cannot be defied because politicians legislate it to happen.

Political agenda is almost entirely responsible to the current high energy prices.

Almost all the new big money and investments, grants, funding is gushing out to entities that want to develop solar, wind and other technologies and has dried up for fossil fuels.

This is totally intentional and government dictated but its driving the free market dynamics.

The big money goes to ventures which pay the greatest dividends. Government policies are telling the market what to expect, and Biden spending $555,000,000,000 on the fake climate crisis is adding even more monetary fuel to the WRONG energy policies..........driving out fossil fuels to make room for the diffuse power, unreliable, expensive, inefficient energy that has no good way to be stored on a large scale yet(batteries).

With fossil fuels, you don't need massive battery storage. The fuel........IS THE BATTERY!

With solar and wind, even after you generate electrical energy, you have to use it right away or find a place to store it. Lack of storage means it only lasts as long as the wind is blowing or sun is shining.

Putting it in batteries, then accessing it also loses some of the electrical energy in the process.

With fossil fuels, all the energy is loaded into the fuel already .........its own natural battery. You just burn it when you need the energy.

Interestingly, fossil fuels are really just super mega solar energy that took millions of years to go from life forms(powered by the sun and photosynthesis with CO2 as the starting point and building block for all life), decomposed and concentrated to what they are today. 

By TimNew - Nov. 12, 2021, 6 a.m.
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This is at least in part, affected by inflation, which is at a 30 year high.

But as we are still 3+ million jobs below the pre-pandemic employment level, coupled with about 10 million job openings,  I have expected sustained significant growth as we reopen.  So, while relatively speaking, the current Q4 GDP forecast is a pleasant surprise,  the real suprise to me was the anemic reading of Q3.

I don't think I can speculate further without going NTR.