Covid- hospitalizations--- population of 1 local hospital
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Started by cutworm - Nov. 19, 2021, 8:27 p.m.

ste-covid-hospitalizations_1920x1080.jpg (1920×1080) (stelizabeth.com)

75 inpatients 65% unvaccinated 35% vaccinated

19 in ICU 79% unvaccinated 21%vaccinated 

12 on ventilators 67% unvaccinated 33% vaccinated

What Percentage of Kentucky is Vaccinated? | Kentucky Vaccine Tracker | USAFacts

In Kentucky, 2,643,903 people or 59% of the state has received at least one dose.

Overall, 2,305,717 people or 51% of Kentucky's population has been fully vaccinated.

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By metmike - Nov. 19, 2021, 10:20 p.m.
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Thanks much cutworm!

It looks like this 1 hospital is in Covington KY, so we should use the vaccination rates for that county and not the entire state, although there are likely some patients from surrounding counties at that hospital. 

This would be Kenton county where vaccination rates are 62.5% with 1 shot and 55.1% with 2 shots.

https://data.news-leader.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/kentucky/21/

I can't find stats for the entire state of KY on vaxx or not vaxx for people in the hospital but did find this fact from a somewhat bigger hospital in Louisville from over 2 months ago:

Louisville hospitals ‘feeling the strain’ as more unvaccinated people experience severe illness from COVID-19

https://louisvilleky.gov/news/louisville-hospitals-feeling-strain-more-unvaccinated-people-experience-severe-illness-covid

"All three chief medical officers emphasized that most of the patients in their hospitals for COVID are unvaccinated. 

“No one in our ICU for the past three weeks was vaccinated,” said Dr. Smith. “Our hospitals would be in a very different situation if everyone was vaccinated.”

Dr. Hester shared that the average age of those not vaccinated in Norton hospitals is 53. “We have 197 patients in our hospitals today and only 18 are vaccinated. Being vaccinated makes a big difference and it shows in our numbers.”


By cutworm - Nov. 20, 2021, 7:20 a.m.
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Thanks mike. St E's covers most of Campbell Kenton and Boon Counties probably some parts of others. The 3 county totals from your site: 



population1st shotfully vaccinated
Kenton129,095 84,115 73,763 
Campbelll92,267 60,606 52,969 
Kenton164,688 102,879 90,739 
Totals386,050 247,600 217,471 
% vaccinated
64.14 56.33 
By cutworm - Nov. 20, 2021, 7:32 a.m.
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Also from your article: (I like to see the numbers not just their interpretation)

Here are the key COVID-19 data metrics for August 24, 2021:

  • Louisville is in the high alert level red with a daily incidence rate of 60.1 cases per 100,000.
  • The positivity rate of 13.11% is nearing our record positivity rate of 14.39% set on January 25.
  • There were 3,226 new cases over the previous week.
  • Hospitalization data:
    • 311 patients currently hospitalized have COVID-19. 14 new deaths reported in individuals ranging in ages from 41 to 91.
    • 94 patients in ICU with COVID-19.
    • 54 COVID-19 patients on ventilators.

Vaccines

  • 910,261 total vaccine doses given in Metro Louisville since December.
  • 59.9% of Louisville residents have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 51.9% have completed the vaccine series.
By cutworm - Nov. 20, 2021, 7:36 a.m.
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Also I have long held that the Positivity rate means very little as we are not testing everyone , the sample size changes, reasons for testing changes ect. It does show that ccp virous is still out there. But really that's all IMHO

By cutworm - Nov. 20, 2021, 7:38 a.m.
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I just noted that your article is from August. I'm thinking that the numbers may have changed since then

By metmike - Nov. 20, 2021, 8:21 a.m.
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Yes, I noted that the article was over 2 months old and for sure the numbers will be changing with time.

As more people get vaccinated, and less are unvaccinated, the ratio will continue to be more and more sick people being vaccinated and less and less sick people being unvaccinated.

And even much more important.... like the flu shots that gradually lose effectiveness so do the COVID shots which will also increase the vaccinated numbers that get sick and make the keeping track of the metrics even more complicated.....a nightmare really.

It might be near impossible to find many stats that keep track of sick people in 4 categories.

1. No shots

2. 1 shot

3. 2:shots

4. 3 shots

The pharmacist that gave me my 3rd shot remained me that I may need a 4th shot after another 6 months.

So what this means really to current stats  is that people that got vaccinated almost a year ago with no boosters are becoming closer and closer to unvaccinated people as protection wears off. 

You can see this in the numbers too....from the local hospital you showed.

This means that the August numbers were more pure for showing the difference between people recently vaccinated and those not vaccinated.

And the November numbers are likely the reality of the vaccinations wearing off......but we can’t know the true extent without also knowing how many also got a booster shot which I am guessing is pretty low.......which for now, means that hospital number is good at showing the first vaccination wearing off.

When we get something like half the people with boosters it’s a statistical mess and after we hit the next level of boosters, there will be a new stat that will have to rule.........HOW LONG since they were vaccinated.

Nobody that got vaccinated for the flu in 2020 would be seen as vaccinated for the flu this Winter, and so people vaccinated for COVID almost a year ago are following the same immune system pathway.

I’m grateful to you for bringing this up cutworm because it appears to be a marvelous way of potentially tracking real time how the vaccines could be wearing off.

The only way to know will be when they start keeping track of WHEN each sick person got vaccinated LAST and then pass those numbers on......but I fear that stat will be greatly lacking in most places.

All we will see is numbers like this and we have to make our own assumptions.

By metmike - Nov. 20, 2021, 8:36 a.m.
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This also really makes the vaccine mandate issue a bigger mess.

Since there is no question the COVID vaccine wears off with time, mandates will not be for just 1 or 2 shots and be over.

Unless they discover a very effective and fairly cheap drug that obliterates this disease effectively, we will be stuck with a scenario similar to needing an annual flu shot.

So mandates will mean shots every year.

Won’t this be fun.....NOT. It’s going to be an ugly long lived battle, very sadly.

By metmike - Nov. 20, 2021, 8:45 a.m.
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Not to be overlooked, there are people that get COVID and most recover but......you don’t want to be part of the 50% who have long COVID.

You have continued serious symptoms for 6 months. This group is so overlooked in the discussion but it’s over 11 million people.

Here's the thing on the study below..........these were all UNvaccinated people.

How many people get 'long COVID'? More than half, researchers find

Half of COVID survivors experience lingering symptoms six months after recovery

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211013114112.htm

"The researchers conducted a systematic review of 57 reports that included data from 250,351 unvaccinated adults and children who were diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 2019 through March 2021."

The investigators noted several trends among survivors, such as:

  •     
  • General well-being: More than half of all patients reported weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain.
  •     
  • Mobility: Roughly one in five survivors experienced a decrease in mobility.
  •     
  • Neurologic concerns: Nearly one in four survivors experienced difficulty concentrating.
  •     
  • Mental health disorders: Nearly one in three patients were diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorders.
  •     
  • Lung abnormalities: Six in ten survivors had chest imaging abnormality and more than a quarter of patients had difficulty breathing.
  •     
  • Cardiovascular issues: Chest pain and palpitations were among the commonly reported conditions.
  •     
  • Skin conditions: Nearly one in five patients experienced hair loss or rashes.
  •     
  • Digestive issues: Stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea and vomiting were among the commonly reported conditions.
By cutworm - Nov. 21, 2021, 11:09 p.m.
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The "vaccines"(MRNA) are not capable of obliterating the disease. Not like the polio vaccine. IMHO they are only a   treatment or pretreatment. They do not stop the spread of the disease (evidence of the break throughs). Inactivated vaccines are totally different from MRNA

Polio can be prevented with vaccine. Inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is the only polio vaccine that has been given in the United States since 2000.

Polio Vaccination | CDC

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2021, 12:08 a.m.
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Correct cutworm,

This is why the COVID vaccines, just like the flu vaccines, as mentioned previously, will be with us for a very long time.......unless they find a drug that can obliterate the disease quickly in humans that have it.

The flu season is confined mostly to just the Winter months on the graph below Dec-Mar, with a little bit in Oct/Nov. 

This is mainly because of the weather. See other posts at the link below. Virus's love dry air. If you double the humidity, the amount of virus that survives after 1 hour is cut in half. The air in Winter is obviously very dry vs the more humid air masses in Summer that can have several times more moisture.

Flu shots only need to protect us for around 6 months. If you get a flu shot in early October you're good to early April......when the incidence of the flu has plunged.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-long-does-the-flu-shot-last

No big deal in May-Sept when there's not  as much immunity or flu antibodies left to fight an illness that has very small numbers and can't spread very effectively.

So it works perfect to get your next flu shot just ahead of the next flu season to be protected for another 6 months of prime time flu season.


But COVID is multiple times more contagious than the flu and the more humid weather, though it's less optimal for COVID spreading compared to the dry Winter weather.....is not enough so that people don't need vaccination protection to help out.

So COVID can still spread rapidly in the Summer.

To me, this means for the time being, people need to get boosters every 6 months to maintain an near optimal level of protection from the vaccines.......as mentioned earlier.

Waiting longer than that will result in what we're seeing today. The incidence of COVID increasing in vaccinated people because their vaccination protection is wearing off. 

After 6 months, vaccinated people get closer and closer to having the immune system of an unvaccinated person.

This is totally expected, just like with the flu vaccine. 

I got my flu vaccine and COVID booster/3rd shot 2 weeks ago(no symptoms except for some minor soreness in the arm for a day).

In 6 months, I totally expect to get a 4th COVID shot but can wait 12 months for another flu shot. I've been taking prednisone for 27 years  for an autoimmune disorder and it suppresses your immune system.

I found out that when you hit 65 years old, the the dose in the flu vaccine is exactly 40% higher compared to people under 65. Obviously the higher dose triggers production of more antibodies and us old farts need more protection.

This was only the 2nd flu shot of my life. After studying vaccines and diseases, including the flu in 2020, it gave me a wake up call, regarding the actual risk to us old folks. 

It would be crazy to NOT have added protection. It's free, very low risk and conclusively proven to greatly reduce your risks.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/77622/#77633


Influenza (Flu)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm


Peak Month of Flu Activity
1982-1983 through 2017-2018

Flu Peak Activity Chart



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 2:33 p.m.
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Related exactly to this discussion cutworm:

             

Tensions emerge over redefining the fully vaccinated

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/583084-tensions-emerge-over-redefining-the-fully-vaccinated

Governors in two states in the past week indicated they think three shots are necessary for full vaccination, but public health experts warn such a move would result in massive confusion, and a return to the piecemeal, scattered response that marked the early days of the pandemic.

"We've just moved from lots of confusion where most people were not aware, could not figure out, if they were eligible for a booster," said Jennifer Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

"If states move out ahead and kind of change their definition of who they're qualifying as fully vaccinated ... that could create a lot more confusion again, because you'd have these different standards all over the country," she said. 

While just two governors have said they think the definition of fully vaccinated should include a booster shot, others could follow as concerns grow among officials about waning immunity levels.

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) on Nov. 17 said she thinks three doses should be considered fully vaccinated, and the state, which does not currently have any vaccine mandates, was looking into implementing some.

“We ... are analyzing what we can do to create those incentives — and potentially mandates — for making sure that people are fully vaccinated, which means three vaccines," she said.

The state's Health and Human Services Secretary David Scrase said he anticipates a public health order will be released in the coming weeks about updating the definition.

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) similarly said last week that he thinks booster shots are needed to qualify a person as fully vaccinated, but did not indicate any health orders would be forthcoming.

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The debate over what qualifies as fully vaccinated is tied up in the controversy over boosters.

President Biden over the summer promised widespread boosters for all Americans by the end of September, well before the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had examined the evidence. 

While officials were careful to say the booster program was contingent on the FDA and CDC giving the green light, scientists inside and outside the government argued there wasn't enough evidence showing protection against severe illness and hospitalization dropped to levels that warranted a booster.

In a nod to the conflicting views, officials initially authorized boosters for people over the age of 65, plus anyone at high risk because of their line of work or where they live, or those with an underlying medical condition. 

The conditions were broad, but members of the public were confused. So last week, administration officials simplified it and authorized a booster of any COVID-19 vaccine for anyone over the age of 18, with certain timing stipulations.

Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said the debate over boosters and changing what it means to be fully vaccinated just further obscures the primary purpose of the coronavirus vaccines.

"It's first and second doses that change the trajectory of the pandemic, that protect hospital capacity. It's not boosters. Our hospitals are not getting pressure from people who are fully vaccinated and having breakthrough infections," Adalja said. 

Federal health officials have been encouraging every adult who has been vaccinated in the past six months to get a booster shot, but are also insisting that boosters are not required.

"The definition of fully vaccinated is two doses of a Moderna or a Pfizer vaccine, as well as one dose of a J&J vaccine," CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a recent White House briefing. 

This week, the nation's top infectious diseases doctor Anthony Fauci said that may change.

"Right now, officially, fully vaccinated equals two shots of the mRNA and one shot of the J&J, but without a doubt that could change," Fauci told Reuters in an interview. "That's on the table for discussion."

In a separate interview on ABC's "This Week," Fauci said there needs to be more data from people who have received boosters before making any decisions.

"We're going to see what the durability of that protection is, and as we always do, you just follow and let the data guide your policy and let the data guide your recommendations," Fauci said.

But experts said neither states nor the federal government should have any business essentially mandating booster shots, because it sends the wrong message about the effectiveness of the initial series. 

"I don't think there's any scientific basis to say that somebody who's gotten two doses of vaccines is equivalent to someone who's not vaccinated. There's just no science to back that up. It's actually wrong," Adalja said. 

Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital in Philadelphia, said his hospital has a vaccine mandate, and thinks it would make no sense to require a booster on top of the normal series, even for those over 50 years old who may particularly benefit from additional antibodies.

      

  

"Should we then call everybody back who's over 50 and say, you can't work here anymore until you get a third dose, given the paucity of data that supports that? No," Offit said. 

The third dose is "a detour away from what's really important, which is vaccinating the unvaccinated," Offit said.

"We're not going to get past this pandemic by boosting people who've already been vaccinated. We're going to get past this pandemic by vaccinating the unvaccinated,” he added. “That should be the focus."