@kannbwx

StoneX slashed its estimate of #Brazil's #soybeans to 134 mmt from 145.1 mmt, likely driven by dry conditions in the south. Conab was last at 142.8 and USDA 144. They will update Jan 11 & 12, respectively. Unsure USDA would make a cut that large this early though... we'll see.

@kannbwx

Normally this might suggest U.S. farmers are likely to preference corn planting over beans this spring, but it is not so simple because of the relatively higher cost to plant corn, especially considering fertilizer prices. Anyone out there ditching corn for beans because of this?

@kannbwx

Crop conditions for #soybeans in Parana, #Brazil took a steep dive at the end of December. 

(% Good/Bad): Nov 30: 92/1 Dec 6: 83/2 Dec 13: 72/6 Dec 21: 57/13 Jan 3: 30/31 

As of Jan 3, 80% of Parana's beans were either flowering/pod setting/pod filling.

@kannbwx

Conditions for #Argentina's #soybeans also fell in the latest week (Dec 30) - now 56% good/excellent vs 71% a week earlier - but much better than the year-ago 36%. Chart is from the latest Bolsa de Cereales update. Per the Ministry, 86% of Argy's soy was planted as of Dec 30.

@kannbwx

Maybe ratings were done differently 10 years ago, not sure, so I won't overanalyze that. Takeaway here is that the crop has rarely/never been judged this poorly at this point in the season.

@kannbwx

2019 crop outcome? Yields fell around 9% below trend, worst relative result since 2012. The 2016 yield was about 6% off trend despite the 88% rating early on, so high ratings aren't necessarily a guarantee. 2012 yields were terrible but "good" never fell below 50%.

@kannbwx

One of these things is not like the others. Parana, #Brazil #soybeans, % rated good, first week of January: 2015: 88 2016: 88 2017: 97 2018: 88 2019: 58 (12 bad) 2020: 89 2021: 79 (3 bad) 2022: 30 (31 bad)

Looking at corn monthly, corn rises into March, then drops off in April. In 2019, it went a little higher than normal before dropping off. With the current crop conditions/planting intentions, it might do that again this year.

@kannbwx

Contrast #Argentina and southern #Brazil's dryness with the recent weather in Mato Grosso in Brazil's Center-West. 

The top corn & soy grower has received steady rainfall for the past two months. Strong soybean yields are expected.

@kannbwx

The 11-15 day period in the GFS model should never be taken too seriously. 

Take note that rain is there, but then watch to see whether that starts moving into the 6-10 day. A lot of times it doesn't, or the amounts significantly change.

@kannbwx

Midday Thursday South American weather check#Argentina: light rain chances day 9+, scorching hot temps next week Rio Grande do Sul, #Brazil: no rain for 10 days, scorching hot, rain chances in 11-15 (low reliability) Parana, Brazil: rain chances day 3-4 & 10+, hot

@kannbwx

Two more industry estimates for #Brazil's #soybeans out on Thursday. AgRural pegs the crop at 133.4 mmt vs prior forecast of 144.7 mmt, and AgResource sees the harvest at 131.04 mmt vs 141.03 previously. Last year's crop exceeded 137 mmt.

Those are some significant drops!  

More drops to come. However, the 2nd half of January could feature much better weather.

We hit a ton of buy stops above the previous highs and beans went up almost 10c in a few seconds.

Thanks Jim!