KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +405K; previous +210K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.1%; previous 4.2%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.26%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.2%; previous +4.80%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -25K)
Private Payroll (previous +235K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.8%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +25.0B; previous +16.9B)
Monday, January 10, 2022
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 114.49)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Tuesday, January 11, 2022
6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 98.4)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 48.4)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.8)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 15,492.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16,239.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. From a broad perspective, March needs to close above November's high crossing at 16,768.00 or below December's low crossing at 15,492.00 to confirm a breakout of the November-January trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16,239.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. First support is December's low crossing at 15,492.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 15,043.89.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4665.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4808.25. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4665.23. Second support is December's low crossing at 4520.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-13. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-01. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 155-15. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.
March T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.073 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.073. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 131.190. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 128.140. Second support is weekly support crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:February crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $81.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $79.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $81.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.17.
February heating oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $2.5607 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3197 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at $2.4881. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $2.5607. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.3965. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3197.
February unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 2.4026 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2010 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 2.3441. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 2.4026. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.2709. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2010.
February Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. If February renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.504. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.535. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the November-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, December's high crossing at $96.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the November 30th low crossing at $95.50 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the May-December-2021 rally crossing at $95.07. First resistance is the December 15th high crossing at $96.89. Second resistance is the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81. First support is the November 30th low crossing at $95.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the May-December-2021 rally crossing at $95.07.
The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the November-January trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 30th high crossing at $114.17 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $114.17. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at $115.23. First support is November's low crossing at $112.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60.
The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 9th high crossing at 1.3609 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3389 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the November 9th high crossing at 1.3609. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3692. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3389. Second support is the December 8th low crossing at 1.3166.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 1.0791 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0923 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1005. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the December 31st high crossing at $79.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at $79.23. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $79.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.15. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087308 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086691. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087308. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $1753.0 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1809.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1785.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.
March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline., December's low crossing at $21.410 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.319 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.319. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $25.540. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $22.000. Second support is December's low crossing at $21.410.
March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3535 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.5115 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.5115. Second resistance is the October 25th high crossing at 4.5335. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3535. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.1195.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.86 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during the first half of January. If March renews the rally off September's low, the June high crossing at $6.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.86 1/4. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $5.62 1/2.
March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.69 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.35 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.10 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.10 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.71. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.97 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.72 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.97 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $9.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the late-November low, the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.29 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $13.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. First support is the December 30th low crossing at $13.34 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.29 3/4.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $431.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $398.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $416.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $431.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $398.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $393.70.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 61.44. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 59.68. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 61.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.70. Second support is December's low crossing at 51.55.
Thanks very much tallpine!