Week in Review
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Started by TimNew - Jan. 7, 2022, 10:11 a.m.

PMI Mfg_M/MDec-2157.8057.70C
PMI Svc_M/MDec-2157.5057.60C
ISM Mfg_M/MDec-2161.1058.70C
ISM Svc_M/MDec-2269.1062.00C
Factory Orders_M/MNov-2211.6C+
Construction Spending_M/MNov-210.200.40C+
Job Openings(Jolts)_M/MNov-2211.033M10.562MC
Jobless Claims_W/W1/1/2022198K207KC
Employment Situation_M/MDec-22210K199KC-

Somewhat lite in quantity, but important stuff here.

Again, the Emplyment Situation was well below expecations, coming in at a relatively anemic 199 vs consensus of 400K.  Private Sector was 211, so public payroll continutes to contract. Participation was up a tic to 61.9, but remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. The "Best" part of this is that it may soften the Fed's hawkish position,  but with inflation at these levels, they really have little to no choice.

ISM moderated significantly, but remains at very high levels. Will that continue?

Jobless Claims remain historically low.

Job Openings dropped by about a half million. It's concerning that the drop far outpaces the job creation which suggests to me that employers are canceling positions.  Are they finding alternatives or is their need contracting?  Neither bodes well.  Voluntary quits set a record at 4.5 million.

Factory Orders showed a nice gain which may be the best news of the week.  Bears watching.

Construction spending also showed a gain, primariliy in residential. Also good news.  worth noting, Both metrics are from November.

The grades warrant a C for the week, and I hope I am not being generous.  If I were forced to say,  I'd say we are staring stagflation in the face.

By metmike - Jan. 7, 2022, 10:34 a.m.
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Thanks much Tim!