Looks like SA is a tale of two weather problems
Part of the soybean crop has wet weather, delaying harvest and the planting of 2nd crop cotton or corn
Corn and cotton window for planting will close in about 3 weeks maybe 4 if they push it. Last yr they pushed the 2nd crop window and that did not work out so well
This yr some parts of SA will have 100 % crop loss on the 1st crop, because of dry weather. Golly some are too wet, some are too dry
Farmers are being advised to contact end buyers if they can't fill contracts and also banks for longer term loans as they will certainly not pay expenses from this yrs crop
Now you would think some place in the middle has good weather but nobody seems to talk about good weather in SA this yr
Seems like a lot of the good weather is in parts of SA with less crops grown or too far away, to pay trucking expenses
1000 miles or more over dirt roads costs a lot to hire trucks
as stated below from Kory...early beans have over 30% damage and they don't have enough quality beans to blend, crush or ship
Thanks mcfarm,
Like I've been saying, no matter how great the weather gets from this point in Brazil/Argentina, there is tons of permanent damage that can never be recovered.
Look at these temperatures from late last week in Argentina.
This is what happens on bone dry soil in a SEVERE drought. Very hot temps are AMPLIFIED because some of the solar/short wave radiation that would ordinarily be used up in evaporating moisture at the surface/top of the soils.........is available to heat the air near the ground even more than it does with a moist soil.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/79803/#80400
Re: Re: Re: Re: : South America crops/weather Jan/Feb/March
By metmike - Jan. 14, 2022, 3:11 p.m.
Noon CST temperatures (in °F) in Argentina and nearby areas One more day of this type of heat for Argentina, then a break (downright cool, in fact, for January 18-20) #soybeans#corn
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/79803/#80400
carlos cogo report this am from cogo international. They have Brazil down to 131 and Argy central off 25 to 50%.
in Portugese
and now comes Micharl Cordonnier today with a report from
Rio Grand do sul with up to 100% losses. and the prediction of continued hot and drier than normal for aeas to the north
The forecast for continuation of hot and dry is a bad forecast by that source mcfarm. The main deal now is acertaining how much the tremendous damage has been up to this point. I've been stating with absolute certainty that its massive. Beans have had a nice move up though and there is rain on the way.
First map is rains thru 120 hours. Mostly falling in Argentina.
Map 2 below....Then it gets pretty wet in Brazil too, with 2"+ from days 5-15, some places 3-5" in that period.
Drought of 2021 and beans in southwest Indiana
I honestly don't know what the current state is of the crops down there. I have watched the weather every day for the last 2 months. Much of the corn in the drought areas is silage corn and no amount of rain will add bushels. I watched beans in this region during the drought of 2012 do a miraculous recovery though.
Many of them just went dormant. They looked dead with almost no growth for many weeks.......just sitting there from late June thru July. There was some premature flowering that quickly aborted.
By the time early August rolled around, you would think that they were toast. But we had an El Nino kicking in (from beneficial warming in the tropical Pacific-El Nino's cause MORE rain in the US, while global cooling and La Nina's-cool water anomalies in the tropical Pacific like we have now cause more droughts, like the one we have right right in the Plains and parts of the West still).
Anyway, it was like a real world laboratory experiment to learn about soybeans in 2012 during a drought.
I got out of my car dozens of times to check out different fields here and between here and Detroit. The increase in CO2 actually greatly assisted them in being much more drought tolerant/water efficient with weather that would have killed them 30 years earlier. Better genetics helps too.
Then, like somebody turned the atmospheric faucet on, it started raining here in the middle of August and kept raining. I think we had our wetting August-October in history.
The greatly stunted and dormant beans, some looking dead, some that had aborted earlier premature flowering attempts suddenly came alive.
No way could they make up for the lack of growth so they were all extremely short and mostly past the vegetative state which would add much more growth but they ALL flowered like crazy. Bean plants that had aborted previous flowering had massive additional flowering that took. And the filling weather was excellent. Not alot of leaf area to gather sunshine energy to help fill pods because of lost growth in June/July but plenty of pods and they did way better than anybody could have imagined.
Some of my farmer buddies around here told me they had silage corn but got 40 bu/acre on their beans, which was close to an average year for them down here on the KY border.
Here was the precip for that year. Note the record dryness in June/July(and below average precip for most of 2012 leading up to this-lingering affects from the previous La Nina), then record rains in August/Sept-8.28"/October(from global warming/El Nino) that are ordinarily the driest months of the year.
11 inches below average for the year but wet in Aug-Sep-Oct, which salvaged the beans around here.
Without witnessing that miraculous recovery by the beans in 2012, I would be pretty sure that the beans in Argentina and S/Brazil are already toast. This pattern down there isn't record rains either. However, there probably will be enough rain for decent flowering on very stunted plants that should have decent filling weather to give SOME yield.
I agree cooler with rain is coming. always does coming sometime. When does it usually rain, after a dry spell. But this talk started about 2 weeks ago and as yet as been lighter rain and hotter temps than predicted it looks like. If you are hurting every day counts
Very true mcfarm.
Delaying the rains in an extreme drought by a day in a critical developing period DOES matter a bit.
Delaying the rains by a week matters alot for yields and damage.
