KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.6%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +0.1%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.6%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 286K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +55K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1635000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +84K)
8:30 AM ET. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 122.4)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2810B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -206B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 33)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 24)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 25)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +3.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 70.6)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 68.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 74.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,758.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 13,386.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,758.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,376.42. First support is Monday's low crossing at 13,706.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 13,386.58.
The March S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it appears to be trying to form a bottom following the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4470.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4199.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4470.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4596.74. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4199.38. Second support is the June 2021 low crossing at 4129.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the January 13th high crossing at 156-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 156-28. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 157-15. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.
March T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 126.110 is the next downside target. Closes above the the January 13th high crossing at 128.270 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 128.270. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 129.106. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 127.020. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $87.95. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.48. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $77.34.
March heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $2.7919 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5261 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.7149. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $2.7919. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5261. Second support is the January 7th low crossing at $2.4381.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extended the rally off December's high and posted a new contract high in the process. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $2.5430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3781 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.5395. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $2.5430. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3782. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $2.2757.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 4.356 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 3.416 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.356. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 4.450. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.629. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.416.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was sharply higher overnight and spiked to a new contract high as it extends the rally off the January 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March sustains the overnight upside breakout of the November-January trading range, weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $97.14. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 99.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.79. Second support is the January 14th low crossing at $94.61.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high and has broken out to the downside of the November-January trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $110.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.46. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $114.96. First support is the overnight low crossing at $111.62. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $110.94.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3561 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3561. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311.
The March Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0712 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0813 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0862. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0755. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.71 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November 10th high crossing at $80.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at $80.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $81.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.71. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at $78.03.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087131 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.085980. If March renews the rally off January's low, the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.088170. Second resistance is the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087131. Second support is the December 4th low crossing at 0.085980.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1810.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $1881.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1856.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1881.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1810.00. Second support is January's low crossing at $1783.80.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.105 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at $25.014 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at $24.512. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at $25.014. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.105. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $22.820. Third support is the January 7th low crossing at $21.945.
March copper was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3835 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 4.6142 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 4.6142. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 4.6936. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3835. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 4.3135.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June high crossing at $6.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is last-June's high crossing at $6.33. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at $6.40 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.95 1/4.
March wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $8.74 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $8.31 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 8.74 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.73. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.35 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.91 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $8.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.71. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.91 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $9.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.89 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight and spiked to a new contract high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $13.82 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the July 19th high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $14.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $14.49 1/4. Second resistance is the July 19th high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $14.80. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.49 3/4. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at $13.34 1/2.
March soybean meal was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $405.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $382.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $405.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $431.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $382.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at $373.00.
March soybean oil was higher overnight and spiked to a new contract high as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline crossing at 68.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 64.86. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline crossing at 68.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.98 at $96.27.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $98.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $98.24. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.42.
April cattle closed up $1.75 at $141.85
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at $137.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $143.78. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $139.44. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at $137.87.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.05 at $160.90.
March feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $163.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $152.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $163.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $165.71. First support is Monday's low crossing at $125.22. Second support is November's low crossing at $152.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. closes below Monday's low crossing at 230.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews this month's rally, December's high crossing at 252.35 signal is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 24.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 18.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.07 would open the door for additional gains near-term.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 134.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!