Rice Bull Triangle Break & Retest
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Started by hayman - Jan. 30, 2022, 7:33 p.m.

Last Friday was a down day shared by several commodities in bull stance, like Orange Juice.  Just as thinly traded is Rice.  Here, daily candlechart of March Rice shows a triangle breakout that reversed to retest by again, falling back within the triangle (thus triggering alot of early anxious bull stops).  But here, before settling for the week, price recovers, flips and runs right back up,closing higher and forming a  beautiful bullish hammer candle.  Back up and out of the triangle, price is primed to thrust higher and fulfill many callings much, much higher.  My 5 Rice contracts swung a sum $4000 in value during this retest, but I held to  conviction and held on.  I don't use stops and dread market orders in such thin markets.  Rice total daily volume for the active March contract is usually just several hundred is all!!!  2000 cwt (hundredweight), 200,000 pounds, right? Tick size is a half penny per hundredweight, $10.  So, a move from 15.000 to 16.000 (one base, I call it) translates to $2000 per car.  And at 5 cars, I swing 10 Large per base.   A move from 15.000 to 15.100 yields $200 per contract, a thousand even on my 5 lot.

For the big picture, here is the monthly chart showing just how high rice can go when there is a scare and HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION STARTS HOARDING.  Simply, rice will now "catch up" to the existing grain bull markets such as soy, corn, wheat and oats.  Should be a screamer. Alot of leverage for cheap (less than $1500) margin.

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 30, 2022, 10:49 p.m.
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Thanks much hayman,

Never traded rice or even thought about it because US weather would not matter.......I didn't think but maybe I'm wrong. What do you think?

I just now learned where the US grows rice after all these years, thanks man!

I'm sure China's weather means everything during their growing season.


https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ar-pr.php

Rice: Production per Harvested Acre by County



By metmike - Jan. 30, 2022, 10:51 p.m.
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January 12th, 2022 Maps

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
 Production
Exports
Imports
 
Grains

Corn

        Corn Production        Corn Exports                Corn Imports        

Wheat

        Wheat Production        Wheat Exports                Wheat Imports        

Rice

        Rice Production        Rice Exports                Rice Imports        
Oilseeds

Oilseed

        Oilseed Production        Oilseed Exports                Oilseed Imports        

Soybean

        Soybean Production        Soybean Exports                Soybean Imports        
Cotton

Cotton

        Cotton Production        Cotton Exports                Cotton Imports        

 

Source: Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Database
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/