KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 9, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 617.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +12.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 312.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2355.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +18.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 415.143M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.047M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 250.037M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.119M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 122.744M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.41M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.41M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.007M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Thursday, February 10, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 238K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -23K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1628000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -44K)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1175.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1977.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 161K)
9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2323B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -268B)
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 11, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 68.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.9)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 73.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Tuesday. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rebound off January's low, the 75% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 35,997.12 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 34,799.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 35,637.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 35,997.12. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 34,799.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 33,150.33.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,598.24 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 14,362.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 15,260.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,598.24. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 14,362.75. Second support is January's low crossing at 13,706.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-session close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4604.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4463.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4604.24. Second resistance is the January 12th high crossing at 4739.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4463.05. Second support is January's low crossing at 4212.75.
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March T-bonds closed down 24/32's at 152-24.
March T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the January 13th high crossing at 156-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 156-28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-09. First support is today's low crossing at 152-14. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.
March T-notes closed down 120-pts. at 126.170.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 126.110 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 126.295 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 128.270. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.094. First support is today's low crossing at 126.150. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 126.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $100.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $93.17. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $100.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.32. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $81.90.
March heating oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $268.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $307.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $293.18. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $307.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $268.29. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $256.16.
March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $281.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $250.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 272.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 281.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $250.97. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $237.36.
March Henry natural gas closed slightly lower for the fourth-day in a row on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This week's closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.273 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.946 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.599 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.599. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December crossing at 5.454. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.946. Second support is the January 20th low crossing at 3.629.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $94.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.80. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $96.16. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $95.15. Second support is January's low crossing at $94.61.
The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at 114.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 14th high crossing at 114.96. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at 114.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.18. Second support is January's low crossing at 111.31.
The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 20th high crossing at 1.3659 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3436 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3627. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 1.0712 is the next upside target. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, January's high crossing at 1.1015 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0907. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is January's low crossing at 1.0715. Second support is the November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at 78.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.21. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is the January 6th low crossing at 78.03. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 0.085980 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087484 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. Second resistance is the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485. First support is the January 28th low crossing at 0.086465. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.085980.
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April gold closed higher on Tuesday as it the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1856.70 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 1755.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1829.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1856.70. First support is January's low crossing at $1780.60. Second support is December's low crossing at $1755.40.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.209 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 21.945 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.209. Second resistance is the December 28th high crossing at 23.480. First support is January's low crossing at 21.945. Second support is December's low crossing at 21.410.
March copper closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 460.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 439.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 451.95. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 460.10. First support is January's low crossing at 428.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 423.88.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.03-cents at $6.32 1/4.
March corn posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02 1/2.
March wheat closed up $0.10-cents at $7.78 3/4.
March wheat posted an outside day up as it closed higher on Tuesday extending the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.80 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $7.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.80 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.00 1/2. First support is the January 7th low crossing at $7.35 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09 1/2-cents at $8.01 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat posted an outside day up as it closed higher on Tuesday to extend the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.04 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.04 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.19 1/4-cents at $9.40 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it marked an upside breakout of the trading range of the past seven-trading sessions. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 25th high crossing at $9.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the January 25th high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 25th high crossing at $9.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.70 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.12 3/4-cents at $15.69.
March soybeans closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.03 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.89 1/2. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.03 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.55 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $1.30 at $454.10.
March soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the May-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $455.70. Second resistance is the May-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $429.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.30.
March soybean oil closed down 199 pts. at 63.35.
March soybean oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday breaking out to the downside of last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 68.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 66.92. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 68.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.76. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at 61.22.
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April hogs closed up $2.52 1/2 at $103.80.
April hogs closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $104.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.39.
April cattle closed down $0.23 at $146.18
April cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $148.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $147.38. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $148.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.26. Second support is January's low crossing at $139.03.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.85 at $166.88.
March feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday ending a three-day decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the January 4th gap crossing at $169.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $163.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 4th gap crossing at $169.23. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $170.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $163.86. Second support is January's low crossing at $125.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply higher on Tuesday and marked an upside breakout of the January-February trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 252.35 signal is the next upside target. Closes below the January 28th low crossing at 230.30 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 26.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.18 would temper the friendly outlook.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 17.60 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 134.17 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!!