KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. February Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI PMI-Adj (previous 65.2)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 2.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 16.6)
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped up following Thursday's upside reversal and closed sharply higher on Friday after fresh economic data showed U.S. personal spending rose more than expected in January despite the increase in inflation. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,152.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,152.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,708.81. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's upside reversal thereby increasing the odds that the decline off November's high might finally becoming to an end. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,447.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,128.65. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14,668.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rebound off Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4434.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4434.34. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4484.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.
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June T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 154-07.
June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 156-19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If June renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-22. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 151-29. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.
June T-notes closed down 30-pts. at 126.100.
June T-notes closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 127.115 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.212. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.038. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 125.145. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Friday as international sanctions against Russia for the attack on Ukraine appear to have left Russia's oil production unscathed for the time being. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $87.46 are needed to signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $100.54. Second resistance is the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83.First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $87.46. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $81.06.
April heating oil closed lower on Friday following Thursday's poor close. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $267.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $326.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $300.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $307.11. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $267.28. Second support is the February 1st low crossing at $259.23.
April unleaded gas close lower on Friday as sanctions against Russia for invading the Ukraine have left their oil production untouched for now. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $279.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $320.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 307.01. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $320.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $279.28. Second support is the February 1st low crossing at $261.88.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.390 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline crossing at 8.606.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.390. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.003.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.96 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $97.74. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31. First support is the February 21st low crossing at $95.65. Second support is February's low crossing at $95.15.
The March Euro posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $108.26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 114.02. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 115.04. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 111.11. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $108.26.
The March British Pound posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends Thursday's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3534 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3534. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3166.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0836 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Thursday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is the January's low crossing at 1.0715.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it erased all of Thursday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 71.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.13. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.64. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday leaving Thursday's key reversal down unconfirmed at this time. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087093 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087093. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.086380. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed sharply lower on Friday off some $83.10 from Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1887.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.40.
May silver closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.433 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.026. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.433.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday leaving Thursday's key reversal down unconfirmed.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 474.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 469.95. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 474.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.51. Second support is January's low crossing at 428.80.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up $0.35 1/2-cents at $6.55 3/4.
May corn closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. Margin call sell was triggered after early-session gains failed to attract additional buying, which led to massive stop loss selling ahead of the weekend. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's sharp decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $7.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.20 1/2.
May wheat closed down $0.75-cents at $9.59 3/4.
May wheat had a wild and wide trading range day of $1.09 3/4 as it posted a key reversal down with a sharply lower close on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's highcrossing at $9.51 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.24 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $7.96 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.75-cents at $8.91.
May Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it ended a six-day rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.81. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $10.01 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.60 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.60-cents at $9.60 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $10.62 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $11.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.52 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.44 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.69 1/2-cents at $15.84 1/2.
May soybeans closed sharply lower on Friday and a $1.76 1/4 off Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.73 3/4. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.
May soybean meal closed down $12.90 at $442.70.
May soybean meal closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $416.80.
May soybean oil closed down 304 pts. at 68.93.
May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 74.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.53. Second support is the February 9th low crossing at 62.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.78 at $103.75.
April hogs closed lower for the third day in a row on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off October's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $112.85. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is today's crossing at $103.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98.
April cattle closed down $0.40 at $141.90
April cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $139.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $145.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $145.74. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $148.70. First support is today's low crossing at $141.30. Second support is January's low crossing at $139.03.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $164.90.
April feeder cattle closed higher on Friday due to weakness in corn and wheat but failed to fill yesterday's gap crossing at $167.72. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Thursday's decline, the November 12th low crossing at $160.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $173.98. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $162.03. Second support is the November 12th low crossing at $160.72.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 238.63 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the January 24th low crossing at 230.75 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 280.94 signal is the next upside target.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the January 27th low crossing at 24.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 17.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Friday following Thursday's key reversal down signaling that a short-term top has be posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month decline, the January 14th low crossing at 113.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!